New findings reveal that the amount of oil and methane spewing into the Gulf of Mexico from British Petroleum's ruptured well is far larger than BP originally claimed. BP reports within the first few days following the burning and sinking of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig claimed a flow of 5,000 barrels a day.
This new information increases the estimated total over 30 days from 150,000 to 2.7 million barrels. Given the fact that the oil is still flowing, Deepwater Horizon is destined to be at least the third largest oil spill in history, after the Gulf War Spill in 1991 and the Ixtoc I spill in 1979-80. Ixtoc I, a similar blowout to the Deepwater Horizon, flowed for over 9 months and spilled over 3 million barrels.
Scientists Reach Similar Estimates of Leak Size
Despite BP's claims of the difficulty of determining the size of the leak, at least three different scientists came up with very similar estimates based only on a BP video. According to a May 14 2010 report on the National Public Radio website, Steven Wereley of Purdue University, Timothy Crone of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and Eugene Chiang at UC Berkeley all produced similar estimates of around 70,000 barrels per day coming out of the largest leak.
Wereley, testifying at a Committee on Energy and Commerce hearing on May 19, 2010, reiterated his estimate of the larger leak, and added that the smaller leak is producing another 25,000 barrels per day.
In Wereley's presentation, he reveals that the smallest estimate made of the flow by any outside observer is 20,000 barrels per day, 4 times larger than BP's estimate.
Majority of Spill Remains Beneath the Surface
The enormous size of the spill has been obscured due to the fact that the leaking pipe is 5,000 feet beneath the surface, and the majority of the spill remains submerged. Original estimates were based on satellite imagery of the surface slick.
The latest findings are increasing pressure on BP to find a resolution to the problem. As fishers and others whose livelihoods depend on the health of the Gulf watch nervously, questions are being raised about whether the spill will enter the Gulf Stream and possibly reach the Atlantic Ocean.
Read more from Alan Foljambe:
- Deepwater Horizon Oil Rig Was Given "Categorical Exclusion"
- Top Kill Fails to Stop Flow From Deepwater Horizon
- BP May Face Criminal Charges As Oil Continues To Flow
- BP Protests: Is British Petroleum a Culprit or Just a Scapegoat?
Sources (accessed May 19 2010)
Schoof, Renee, and Lauren French. “ Gulf Oil Spill May be 19 Times Bigger Than Originally Thought,” Miami Herald, May 19, 2010.
Harris, Richard. “Gulf Spill May Far Exceed Official Estimates,” National Public Radio, May 19, 2010.
U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Energy and Commerce: Record of the Subcommittee Briefing on "Sizing up the BP Oil Spill: Science and Engineering Measuring Methods". May 19, 2010.
Presentation of Steven Wereley to the Committee on Energy and Commerce (Powerpoint). May 19, 2010.
