Objectivism 101

Lesson 2: Reason Applied to Astrology

The empirical evidence

Numerous studies have been done to determine whenever astrology had any validity. Here is one list of such studies. Unfortunately, most of them are completely negative. Even numerous astrologers admit the absence of scientific evidence.

Many are convinced that personality analysis and predictions made by astrologers are true because they "work". Let's evaluate this.

Read the following five propositions about you, and put a checkmark besides those you agree with :

Very sociable, you enjoy being with others and definitely prefer not be alone.
Warm and affectionate, you go out of your way to make others like you.
You despise ugliness, for you being surrounded by beauty and harmony is a necessity of life.
You prefer fine clothing, an attractive home and pleasant surroundings wherever you are. Your refined tastes apply to music and to art as well.
At times, you are very indecisive you waver and falter when forced to make a choice because you have the ability to see both sides of any question.

Now do the same thing with the following propositions :

You are anti-social and prefer to be alone instead of with others.
You are cold and do not desire that others like you.
You prefer ugliness, and you do not consider beauty and harmony to be necessary.
You prefer coarse clothing, an ugly home and repulsive surroundings wherever you are.
You are always clear-cut and never falter while making any choice, because your mind only sees one side of every question.

You probably have four or five checkmarks on the first and none on the second. In fact, all I did was write the opposite of the first set (which was taken from a real astrological chart), on the second.

The fact that the first set of propositions (astrology-like) are vague and apply to virtually everyone is easy to see when you read the second set. No one would claim to be anti-social or to prefer repulsive surroundings !

In some cases, people would always agree to a proposition, but would always agree to its opposite. An example of this would be "you are very independent" and "you are very dependent on others". We are independent, or not, in different circumstances. The statements are too open-ended to really say anything at all.

This phenomenon is called the Forer Effect - acceptance of vague statements because they sound pleasing to us. In every test done on it, it has been found to be almost totally effective, if done correctly. The Forer Effect is a part of many pseudo-sciences, especially readings (of the dead, of the palm, and so on).

These facts indicate to us that astrology is probably nothing more than vague propositions which seem to make sense. While it may be that astrology is valid in some other way, we have no objective evidence of such a way.

The Forer Effect is a lesson in epistemology all by itself. It tells us that, while we may feel that a reading, for example, is accurate and is evidence of something, an objective examination of such a claim reveals that it is a psychological trick.

To evaluate something rationally requires one not to be taken in by the subject and limit oneself to what the subject proposes, but rather to expand our horizons and examine the issue thoroughly according to acceptable study methods and close observation when possible.