Elves by the numbers

Top 2. Feb 20, 2002 10:12 AM

» Michael_Martinez - Re: Computations

In response to message posted by BandwagonNewbie:

I haven't saved any notes on such calculations, but since Tolkien wrote that the Eldar were averaging four children per couple in their early generations (this would actually be AFTER the Eldar left Cuivienen), I assumed that four children per couple would be acceptable for the early Elves.

An Elf child grows to maturity in 50-100 years. I figured (for simplicity's sake) that no twins or triplets were born.

Now, you have to assume (one way or the other) that the Elves will wait for a child to grow to maturity before having another, or NOT. Based on those assumptions, you start with 72 couples and start calculating how many children they can have, and how many children those children can have, and when they can have them, etc.

In fact, I know I've written some quick computer programs to perform a lot of these calculations through the years. It becomes tedious rather quickly. But if assume that children are spaced out by 50 years (of the Sun -- which are considerably shorter than Years of the Trees), then a hypothetical AVERAGE Elven couple will produce four children in a period of 151 years (from the time of the conception of the first child).

The Elves awoke in Year of the Trees 1050 and they had about 50 Years of the Trees (equivalent to about 479 Years of the Sun) in which to bring forth new generations.

So, then you have to assume how long after maturity the AVERAGE Elf would wait to take a mate. The Eldar seem to have found mates pretty early in life. Let's say that they were married after about 60 years (of the Sun). So, the first children born to the first generation of Elves would have begun marrying around Year of the Trees 1057. Their children would have begun marrying around Year of the Trees 1063, along with the second children of the first generation.

Year of the Trees = 1050, 72 couples conceive 1 child each

Year of the Trees = 1057, 72 couples + 36 couples conceive 1 child each

Year of the Trees = 1063, 72 couples + 36 couples + 18 couples + 36 couples conceive 1 child each

Year of the Trees 1070, 72 couples + 36 couples + 18 couples + 36 couples + 36 couples + 18 couples + 9 couples + 18 couples conceive 1 child each

Now, after this year, the original 72 couples drop out of the mix because they have produced their average 4 children. That leaves you with a total of 144 second generation couples still producing children (72 * 4 = 288 children in the second generation, which produces 144 couples).

The eldest group of second generation children have so far produced 3 children per couple. The second group of second generation children have so far produced 2 children per couple. The third group of second generation children have just produced their first child per couple, and the first generation Elves have just produced their fourth child per couple.

The eldest group of third generation children have so far produced 2 children per couple, and the second eldest group of third generation children have so far produced 1 child per couple.

Around the Year of the Trees 1077, you have 144 second generation couples producing 1 more child each, and 90 second generation couples producing 1 more child each, and 27 fourth generation couples producing 1 child each, and ...

Confusing? Yes it is. Defining a population model isn't easy, and given that Tolkien wrote so little about the early Elves, much less about the Elven populations, it's impossible to determine what sort of model he would have used, had he actually tried to calculate the growth of the Elvish population.

You can slow the growth rate by extending the average length of time before an Elven couple marries, and by extending the average length of time between children.

We can be pretty certain that there were at least three generations among the Elves when the Eldar left Cuivienen. The fact that Elwe and Olwe (and possibly Elmo) were brothers shows that they had to be at least second generation Elves. But since Cirdan was their kinsman, he had to be an uncle or a cousin. Either way, that puts them into the third generation (and Cirdan was probably a cousin, so he was probably also a third generation Elf).

What happened to their parents? Tolkien doesn't say. He may have left behind some obscure note somewhere, but he needn't have done so. Their parents simply didn't become lords among the Eldar. For all we know, their parents remained behind with the Avari, or had already died, or went on to Aman to live under Olwe's rule.

-- posted by Michael_Martinez

Top 3. Feb 21, 2002 11:16 AM

» CunningVixen - Elves knocked out of equation

All these calculations forget one thing: what about the Elves living at Cuivenen who vanished, taken by the Shadow? The ones who went out and didn't come back? You'll lose some Elves from your calculations this way, hopefully not too many of the poor things. Probably lost from Generation 2? Any thoughts?

-- posted by CunningVixen

Top 4. Feb 24, 2002 5:36 PM

» Michael_Martinez - Re: Elves knocked out of equation

In response to message posted by CunningVixen:

There is no way to factor in the missing Elves because we don't know how many went missing or when they went missing. Some people just assume some percentage should be removed from the total. However, the computations deal with averages based on Tolkien's report. The underlying assumption is that, if the average number of children per couple is valid for pre-Journey generations, then it already takes the missing Elves into consideration.

-- posted by Michael_Martinez

Top 5. Jan 30, 2003 5:00 PM

» cometgirl543 - Michael Martinez

Has there ever been a man more misunderstood? I doubt it, judging from the amount of negative comments I read ont he web! Anyway, I love the essays he writes, which are truly thought-provoking! Keep up the good work Michael!

-- posted by cometgirl543