My Crystal Ball Says...

» Perry - Peter Weber (Editor European Politics) Dear Jeffrey, thank

Peter Weber (Editor European Politics)

Dear Jeffrey,

thanks for your greetings. I found your articles on Russian (and nearby) Politics very interesting and full of important informations. Reading them all together, I felt, however, as if this planet was just five minutes from being blown to pieces. Maybe West European politicians are just blind or they are just not used to catching rabid tigers (in fact they aren't), but from Rome, Paris or Bonn it doesn't look all the same.

The situation in Belarus under dictator Lukashenko is actually as bad as you wrote or maybe even worse. And it is important to talk about it. But at least this guy hasn't got his hands on nuclear weapons, as far as I know. Therefore the situation for the neighbors is not very comfortable, but it does not appear worse than, let's take, with Romania under Ceaucescu. Both were (are) a threat first of all to their own citizens (bad enough !),
The Nato umbrella over Poland and the Baltic states should also prevent him from military adventures. There can be done many things to contain these dictators of minor countries. I think sooner or later they will be blown by their own people. Wait and see for Milosevic, too.

Russia is quite another pair of shoes. But even here the situation is not all negative. I have little doubt that, when Yeltsin leaves, there will be at least a regular presidential election. As a democracy born only six years ago, Russia is not going that bad. They got a president in great difficulty, but this is the case also in other parts of the world.

Standards of democracy are different in other countries and sometimes when you live there for a long time these circumstances become even worse to accept (That's my case in Italy). The decline of the Yeltsin administration is really a bad experience for the new Russian democracy. But if Europe is now in a much better situation than 10 years ago, it's also thanks to his courage shown in the past.

Economic problems will surely grow this winter in Russia. But Russian people have learned to live with them. And I think only a very small minority would like to see their country menace again all their neighbors and the whole rest of the world. To do so, you need at least a realistic possibility to win and an objective worth it.

Even leaders should be aware, that such an adventure could cause the regions to revolt against Moscow. The Russian military, weak in Afghanistan and in Cecenia, doesn't really appear the right instrument to throw down such a revolt. Nobody should have a clearer idea about this than Alexander Lebed. In this case weakness can actually be a guarantee.

Looking forward to your next article,

Best wishes,

Peter

-- posted by Perry

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» not_him_again - Brian Carpenter Jeff, I have a lifelong interest in military hi

Brian Carpenter Jeff, I have a lifelong interest in military history. I have a question for you.

I think we can agree that the Russians still possess the equipment for war; but do they possess the stomach for a fight anymore? And are they able to sustain a war effort in any case? I have not studied them enough to have much opinion on this; your thoughts are most appreciated.

If you say they can still fight, I just might start looking at maps of that region again...

-- posted by not_him_again

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» Jeff_Deutsch - Russian military's stomach for a fight

This is primarily for Brian Carpenter.

Since your questions and concerns were more or less included in Peter Weber's comment, I addressed the whole set in my subsequent article, referring to Mr. Weber. I have been assuming that you have considered your questions adequately answered by my succeeding article, but please let me know if they have not been.

-- posted by Jeff_Deutsch

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» not_him_again - Hi, Jeffrey, I think you covered the stomach question pretty wel

Hi, Jeffrey, I think you covered the stomach question pretty well- at least for a short term move.

What about the logistical situation? How long could the Russian military keep up a sustained offensive against the logical opponents in the European theater? And could she deliver a rapid fait accompli that while not giving her domination of the region to be sure, does give her a strong bargaining chip later?

It seems to me, form what you have said, that Russia's present position is much like Weimar Germany, and if it becomes a totalitarian dictatorship, where would its "Rhineland" be, that it would try to grab in a sudden, unexpected move?

BTW, I liked your article and respect your analytical skills.

-- posted by not_him_again

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