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  1. Math_Junkie
  2. SteveT
  3. Math_Junkie

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Top 582.   Dec 12, 2003 6:19 PM

» Math_Junkie - Re: You can learn so much from history

In response to message posted by SteveT:

Some have raised questions about the allocation percentage from 1982 to 1987, so I have added a question mark to reflect this. As Steve did, I am retaining information from radio broadcasts, and it is labeled as such.

Brinker Recommendation History

Brinker Recommendation History
DATE % IN DJIA
. EQUITIES


Aug 14, 1982 100(?) 777 Recommended being fully invested
Announced on local radio in New York.
(He had been mildly bullish to bullish
on NBR the previous April, and is said
to have been recommending dollar cost
averaging prior to August 14th.)


Aug 21, 1987 100 2,710


Oct 19 100 1,841 Down 695 pts or 25.6% from top.
.
Jan, 1988 0 2,015 Went to 100% cash & told listeners he
was bearish after market was 9.5% above
bottom, taking the brunt of most
of the bear decline.


Feb, 1989 50 2,342 Market up 27% from the bottom.
Up 16.2% from Jan 1988
Nov 75 2,650
Feb, 1990 40 2,559
Mar 50 2,635
Apr 65 2,687
May 75 2,656
July 85 2,840
July 18 3,016 Bull Peak: up 50% since Jan 1988

Oct 12 2,398 Gulf War Bear Bottom
Down 20.5% since Bull Peak
Dec 95 2,565
Jan, 1991 100 2,550 Fully invested
Up 26.7% since going to 0% equities


9 yrs correct to be fully invested
(rode out 1998 selloff).

Jan, 2000 40 11,122 Lowered within 5.1% of S&P top

Aug 7 35 10,688 65% now in cash reserves

Oct 16 QQQ=$83 Told subscribers to put 20% to 50% of
cash reserves into QQQ.

Jan 8, 2001 QQQ=62.44 Again suggested putting 20% to 50% of
cash reserves into QQQ. Reiterated in
February through May issues.

June 8 QQQ=47.35 Placed QQQ on hold.

Sept 21 8,236 DJIA hit 7926.93 intraday

Oct 02 21% 8,950 Still recommended 35% equities, but P1
QQQ=28.82 in newsletter is 21% equities,
apparently due to lack of rebalancing.

Mar 12, 2002 23% 10,586 DJIA +28.5% from 9/23/01 closing.
DJIA same level as Aug00 5% sell.

Oct 9 19% 7,286 Cyclical low so far. QQQ
QQQ=20.06 down 75.8% from 10/16/00 buy at $83

Mar 11, 2003 100% 7,568 Issued bulletin on Website before open
based on March 10th close.
QQQ=24.01, S&P500=807.48 & SPY=81.32
Provided no guidance for existing QQQ
positions.

Mar 15 Announces 100% to weekend audience.

Mar 17 Monday 8,142 QQQ=26.60, S&P500=862.79 & SPY=86.78
(Typical buy levels for weekend and
snail mail followers who use mutual funds.)


Apr 5 100% Recommended new equity purchases below
S&P 810, and dollar cost averaging
otherwise. (I believe this was previously
announced on the radio during March.)
Stopped mentioning existing QQQ position
in the newsletter text. (It is not
accounted for in his reports of
newsletter performance.)


Based on data compiled by PETE from STAMFORD, CT, MrGreenJeans, DanG_6,
Kirk, and SteveT.

-- posted by Math_Junkie



Top 583.   Dec 12, 2003 6:29 PM

» SteveT - Re: Re: My Table

In response to message posted by Math_Junkie:

Math_Junkie, thanks for your candid answer.

Would the people of this board like David K. to comment on the various tables circulating here? It seems some of brinker faithful trust him. How about it David? Maybe a general overview when you have time.

-- posted by SteveT



Top 584.   Dec 12, 2003 6:29 PM

» Math_Junkie - My Table

.
In all the furor about whether tables should include radio recommendations or not, one thing seems to have been overlooked.

My table actually makes Brinker look worse than Steve's does in a couple of respects.

I'm surprised no one has picked up on this.

-- posted by Math_Junkie



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