Donald Bradley - Bradley Siderograph

» Kirk - Donald Bradley: The Bradley siderograph

Bradley Siderograph

The Bradley siderograph was developed in the 40ies by Donald Bradley to forecast the stock markets. Bradley assigned numerical values to certain planetary constellations for every day, and the sum is the siderograph. It was originally intended to predict the stock markets. The noted technical analyst William Eng singled out the Bradley as the only 'excellent' Timing Indicator in his book, "Technical Analysis of Stocks, Options, and Futures" (source: Astrikos).

It is crucial to understand what the siderograph is about since almost all traders (and even and even financial astrologers!) misunderstand it. Over the decades it has been observed that the siderograph can NOT (!!!) reliably predict the direction but only turning points in the financial markets (stocks, bonds, bonds, commodities) within a time window of +/- 4 calendar days. That's the reason "inversions" can not (!) occur because the Siderograph does not reliably indicate trend directions. Also, it is not a timing tool for short-term trends but rather for intermediate-term to longer-term trends because the turning window is +/- 4 calendar days.

The first chart shows the siderograph based on the original formula as applied by Bradley himself ("geocentric" means earth-centered, i.e. from our perspective)

<img src=http://www.amanita.at/images/charts/brad... width=423 height=370>

snip...

The last chart is the 360° heliocentric siderograph.

<img src=http://www.amanita.at/images/charts/brad... width=423 height=370>

Perhaps you want to know now which one is the "correct" siderograph - the answer is easy: none. Since Bradley's time dozens of similar models with different paramaters have been created, partly optimized with the aid of artificial intelligence and for specific markets (oil, currencies etc.). A date which occurs in several different models is probably important.

  Date       Kirk    S&P500   Delta
2003 YTD    +23.5%    10.2%   13.3%  as of 5/31/2003 
 
                              Kirk   S&P500+   NASDAQ 
4+ Yrs 12/31/98 to 05/31/03   89.4%  (17.3%)   (27.2%)
+with dividends reinvested.

-- posted by Kirk

» Kirk - Market fate in our stars or ourselves?

Market fate in our stars or ourselves?

By Peter Brimelow, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET July 3, 2003
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/print_st...

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Breathing easier? Time for a cheerful thought: The market may be star-crossed, effective today.

In a recent hotline, Peter Eliades of Stock Market Cycles (see HFD data) said: "The Bradley Indicator calls for a top on July 2nd followed by a consistent decline into September 14th."

The what?

Eliades explains helpfully: "The indicator was devised in the 1940s by Donald Bradley... He assigned numerical values to the position of planetary constellations for each day and used the sum of those calculations to draw a siderograph, the prefix "sidero-" in this case standing for stars or constellations."

Right now, according to Eliades, the Bradley Indicator is hot.

"Theoretically, the dates of the turns in the Bradley are more important than the actual magnitude of the moves, but the recent indications of turns have been eerily accurate. The last major turn predicted called for a bottom on March 13th. As we now know, there was an important bottom on March 12th. Prior to that, there was a call for a top on January 10th. The top came one trading day later on January 13th. Going back to last year, the October bottom was called to within two days. "

Eliades is better known for his theory that the financial markets move in complex multi-day cycles. Cycles, however, at least sound familiar to most investors. But astrology?

Interestingly, the only explicitly astrological letter tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest -- Arch Crawford's celebrated Crawford Perspectives -- is also focusing on the Bradley theory.

In his snail mail issue dated June 23, i.e. long before Eliades' recent warning, Crawford warned of "a dip now, and another price SPIKE at the end of the quarter, into the July 4 Holiday. DELUGE into fall!"

He told his subscribers to sell on July 3 and go short.

Crawford also justified his conclusion that "the bullish case is beginning to falter" by citing a variety of normal technical indicators... well, as normal as technical indicators ever are.

This is important because, he says, the Bradley Indicator can go wrong. It needs to be backed up with other evidence.

But right now, Crawford agrees, it's been working.

I regard astrology as an acid test of anyone's commitment to the scientific method. Quite rational people start foaming the mouth when the A-word is mentioned. But it really just comes down to the numbers. Does the Hulbert Financial Digest tracking data show that astrology works? Or not?

In fact, both Eliades and Crawford have records that are at least as respectable as more conventional letters.

Eliades is one of those letter editors who have distinct streaks of success -- hot hands. He may be having one now. In the past three years through the beginning of June, his portfolios gained an annualized 12.7 percent on average, vs. a 9.7 percent loss for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000.

Crawford has not done quite as well (negative 7.4 percent annualized over the past three years versus the market's 9.7 percent loss). But he made money (4.7 percent) over the past 12 months, whereas the market lost (7.2 percent).

And, according to Mark Hulbert, Crawford's market timing has also had streaks of success extending for periods of several years.

I first met Crawford at a financial astrology conference that I'd talked Alan Abelson into letting me cover for Barron's. (Alan had a slight foaming tendency). Crawford made an articulate defense of his method, and, he added, astrology conferences were great places to meet girls.

Financial astrologers may be mad. But they're not stupid.

Editor's note: The most recent edition of the Hulbert Financial Digest is now available by either e-mail or regular mail. Highlights this month include:

* Did the March low mark the end of the 2000-2003 bear market? Contrarian analysis sheds light on an urgent matter.
* Profiles of All Star Fund Trader, F.X.C. Newsletter, Investment Reporter and No-Load Fund Analyst
* Complete performance scorecard, and more

For more information or to subscribe to the Hulbert Financial Digest, click here.

  Date       Kirk    S&P500   Delta
2003 YTD    +31.8%   15.0%    16.8%  as of 7/7/2003 
 

                              Kirk   S&P500+   NASDAQ 
4+ Yrs 12/31/98 to 07/07/03  102.1%  (13.2%)   (22.2%) 
 
+with dividends reinvested. All Numbers unaudited. 
Click for a free issue of my newsletter .

Stock Trader's Almanac 2003
by Yale Hirsch, Jeffrey A. Hirsch

-- posted by Kirk

» Kirk - Next Time Points

fwiw....Bradley has due:

16th....Helio and Helio 360° Low
21st....Geo and Geo 360° High
25th....Helio and Helio 360° High

  Date       Kirk    S&P500   Delta
2003 YTD    +58.4%   20.7%    37.7%  as of 10/14/2003 
 

                                Kirk   S&P500+  NASDAQ 
4.75+ Yrs 12/31/98 to 10/10/03 141.0%  ( 9.2%) (11.8%)
Annualized Annual Return        20.2%  ( 2.0%) ( 2.6%) 
 

9/30/98 Inception Value:   $100,000
9/30/03 5 yrs later value: $345,395 up 245.4%
S&P500 between 9/30/98 and 9/30/03: up   4.6%
With dividends reinvested. All Numbers unaudited. 
Click for a free issue of my newsletter .

-- posted by Kirk

» Kirk - Bradley Model Update

To:Chip McVickar who started this subject
From: Chip McVickar Monday, Sep 20, 2004 10:37 AM
Respond to of 3312

Notes on Astro Cycles....
Next Big Days.... Sept 21st and 22nd

This September is loaded with convergent cycles...
Here's a Look.

Astro folks:
Hitt is looking for Major Crash
Zimmell is looking for Major Crash
K.N. Rao is looking for Major Crash
Prickter is looking for Major Crash
Crawford is Looking for Major Crash
Mahendra is looking for a Major Crash
There are others....

Bradley Model on Stocks peaked April 27th... bottoms 9th December

A Few Bulls:
Merriman
Reminick
Het

 
                  Kirk  S&P500  NASDAQ  BRKA
2YR: 12/31/2002   +69%   +41%    +63%   +23%
4YR: 12/31/2000   +35%    -3%    -12%   +26%
6YR: 12/31/1998  +160%     7%     -1%   +27% 

(BKRa is Legendary Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway )

• Click for a free issue of my newsletter
  
• Suitable for the aggressive growth part of your diversified investment portfolio.

Even if you don’t market time or buy individual stocks, my newsletter offers quite a bit of useful information and tables (Discussion of interest rates, The Fed Model, etc.) which many say are worth the price of the subscription on its own.

<img src=http://cbs.marketwatch.com/charts/int-ad... >

-- posted by Kirk