Thread FULL! Bob_Brinker_Free Discussion_51,710: Use new Forum

Top 267. May 31, 2003 8:38 AM

» dija - Re: Re: Re: Re: dija the liar joins the attack

In response to message posted by Kirk:

Kirk,

a) I wasn't talking about the QQQs. I was talking about brinker's long-term market-timing calls.

b) I wasn't talking about brinker "missing rallies." I was talking about you guys saying he had missed the bottom, when he actually hadn't.

No matter what he does, you people are going to spin and twist it around to avoid giving him any credit, and to avoid ever admitting you were wrong.

I recognize that there is much about him that deserves to be criticized. Nonetheless, I believe his performance should be evaluated fairly and objectively.

-- posted by dija

Top 268. May 31, 2003 9:10 AM

» allancoleman - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: dija the liar joins the attack

In response to message posted by dija:
i appreciate your defence of Bob . i wonder how you continue to have the stomach and time in this den of Bob bashers . thanks again smile

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 269. May 31, 2003 9:44 AM

» smile_1 - Re: benchmark not Beta - Portfolio R-Squared?

In response to message posted by Kirk:

The best I can do is give accurate reports of my results and let others choose what benchmarks to compare me to.

perfect response.

true and accurate representation and transparency is important - your answers reflect this

anyone viewing this discourse should take note of what Kirk has done in representing his results vs. what I have seen Brinker do in the past (Brinker picks an arbitrary point in time which puts the best spin on his results)

congrats Kirk, I expected nothing less, and you did not disappoint

-- posted by smile_1

Top 270. May 31, 2003 10:01 AM

» capran - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: dija the liar joins the attack

In response to message posted by dija:
Fairly, then, he should be credited with calling a "bottom" on March 19,2003. Fair and Objective, right? Well,I only follow the NASDAQ, S&P and RUSSELL2000. On that date(3-19-03) the close of those indexes were: 1397.07 874.02 and 368.51 respectively. On October 9, 2002 those same indexes closed at 1114.11, 776.76 and 327.04. Now I am no math person, but it looks to me that Bob missed the index bottoms by 20.397%, 12.521% and 12.680% respectively. Surely my math skills are rusty and I must be doing it wrong. Hmmmm....let's see. I take the October low and subtract it from Brinkers March call, then divide to get the difference. Can someone double check me???? Did I write down the close on those dates incorrectly?

And that's not even counting the QQQ call. Brinker really could get some extra credit if he would just fess up, admit the errors and move on. A wise man admits his mistakes, learns from them and moves on.

-- posted by capran

Top 271. May 31, 2003 10:47 AM

» Kirk - Re: dija the liar joins the attack

.
In response to message posted by capran:

Fairly, then, he should be credited with calling a "bottom" on March 19,2003. Fair and Objective, right?

Here are some charts to help you with your calculations.

Of course you are using the radio audience date to mark his call. That is when they could first act on his "call." This date is what those not wishing to count his QQQ advice should use as well. David Korn says Brinker told folks to not chase and wait for the market to come back to 800. Does that mean they are still mostly in cash waiting for a pullback? How can dija credit Brinker with a "radio show call" if that is the case? smile

For that date you get this chart. You can subtract the end points to see how much he missed each index by.

I find it funny that those bitching and moaning about "fairness" want to exclude the QQQ calls back in 2000 and 2001 which lost a ton for Brinker's newsletter followers, while they want to use his "act immediately bulletin site" time point for giving him credit for the date of calling a bottom. Those shills are sure consistent about one thing, they want to have it both ways!

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COMMERCIAL BREAK
Kirk's Newsletter performance vs the S&P500



  Date       Kirk    S&P500   Delta
2003 YTD    +23.5%    10.2%   13.3%  as of 5/30/2003 
 
                              Kirk   S&P500+   NASDAQ 
4+ Yrs 12/31/98 to 05/30/03   89.4%  (17.3%)   (27.2%)
+with dividends reinvested.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 272. May 31, 2003 11:06 AM

» Choctaw - Re: Sheldon Jacobs: Similar to Brinker but much clearer.

In response to message posted by RonaldF:

Brinker and Jacobs have the same mailing address for their investment letters. A few years ago they managed money together as a company called BJ Group. You probably knew all this.

-- posted by Choctaw

Top 273. May 31, 2003 11:25 AM

» rff64 - Re: Re: Sheldon Jacobs: Similar to Brinker but much clearer.

In response to message posted by Choctaw:

That's why I drew the comparison. I'd never actually pay them to manage my money, but Brinker is now just about useless for getting good investment ideas, while my reference from Jacobs actually has a lot of real ideas in it worth thinking about.

Why couldn't Jacobs just take over the show or at least be the substitute?

-- posted by rff64

Top 274. May 31, 2003 11:34 AM

» David_Korn - Acting on Bob Brinker's Advice to Become Fully Invested

In response to message posted by Kirk:

For those tracking who was able to take advantage of Bob Brinker's most recent advice to return to a fully invested position, here is how I see it.

Bob Brinker's timing model turned "favorable" based on the S&P 500 Index's close on March 10, 2003 and he recommended investors redeploy their cash reserves into a fully invested position by bulletin issued at 2:00 a.m. on March 11, 2003. Subscribers to my newsletter service were apprised of the bulletin being activated just a few hours and later before the market opened on March 11th. I know that many bought the market on March 11th. (Forgive me for making a shameless plug for my newsletter).

Even if you were not a subscriber to Bob's newsletter (or mine), if you perused the Internet on regular basis, you might have been apprised of Bob issuing his buy signal by virtue of it being reported separately by Mark Hulbert, Peter Brimelow and Aaron Task on March 12th. I alerted all of my subscribers to those three articles when they were published on March 12th. Mark Hulbert's article was the most informative and I wonder if he even borrowed a phrase from the title of my newsletter! Mr. Hulbert's article came out on March 12, 2003 at 12:01 A.M. and was entitled, " Interpreting Brinker's Latest Signal." If you missed it, you can access it at this link:

http://tinyurl.com/7b86

For the individuals who only heard of Bob's buy signal on the radio, they were apprised of it for the first time the weekend immediately following the signal. Specifically, on Saturday, March 15, 2003, daBrink took to the airwaves and announced that he had made his recommendation to become fully invested by bulletin on March 11th. One caller who missed the bulletin asked Bob if he should use his cash reserves to reenter the market. Bob told him that he should do it when the market was in the vicinity of the March lows as defined by the level of 800 in the S&P500.

Technically, if someone listened to the show that weekend and followed Bob's advice to the letter, they might still be waiting to get back into the market, as it never returned to the 800 level. In subsequent shows, Bob recommended using a dollar cost average approach to returning to the market, but he always emphasized that the risk/reward was diminished significantly unless you dollar cost averaged near the lows which he has repeatedly defined as a level of 800 for the S&P 500.

Personally, I think Bob felt that it was highly probably that the market would meander and go back to the areas of that 800 level -- or at least very close to it. Indeed, perhaps he still thinks its possible. He did get rather defensive on a recent broadcast in response to questioning by a subscriber of his who didn't act on his bulletin, and waited for the 800 level to come back, noting that the caller could have gotten back into the market the Monday after he announced it on the broadcast.

To be fair, I think if someone had followed Bob's advice on the radio to the letter, one interpretation of his comments suggests that listeners might still be waiting for the level of 800 (or its vicinity) to get back into the market. On the other hand, someone could just as easily started dollar cost averaging back into the market on the Monday following the broadcast. Of course, they would have already missed a bit of a run-up and if the market had returned to 800 or lower, you can bet Bob would have said he told people to wait for 800.

On the Monday following the broadcast, the S&P 500 opened at 833.27, and managed to close at its high for the day at 862.79. If you used exchange traded funds, you could have gotton 833.27. On the other hand, if you had no load mutual funds, you would have gotten closing prices, which was 862.79 for the S&P 500. The market never looked back that week and managed to close Friday, March 21st at 895.79! Perhaps there was a bit of the Brinker effect? smile

NOTE: If you would like to learn about my service, visit the Bob Brinker Fan Club Hosted by Suite101.com

[Kirk Comment: Blue for editor emphasis ]

-- posted by David_Korn

Top 275. May 31, 2003 11:55 AM

» Kirk - Re: Acting on Bob Brinker's Advice to Become Fully Invested

In response to message posted by David_Korn:

Great Summary David, thanks!

I've added that to my "Brinker Files" list:

-- posted by Kirk