Arch Crawford: U.S. market crash is in the stars

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U.S. market crash is in the stars

Planet alignment leads one market analyst to predict equity gloom. Other experts have more conventional approaches, ANGELA BARNES and CAROLYN LEITCH report

By Carolyn Leitch and Angela Barnes
Saturday, January 1, 2005 - Page B6

Arch Crawford

An ominous alignment of the planets leads Arch Crawford, publisher of the financial newsletter Crawford Perspectives, to predict the U.S. stock market will crash before March 23. "It could be any time between now and then."

Mr. Crawford, based in Tucson, Ariz., advises readers of his newsletter how to pick stocks, in part based on the alignment of the stars.

Mr. Crawford is a market timer who consults more conventional technical analysis measures -- including advance-decline lines, moving averages and trading volume -- but for a longer-term view, he analyzes the market's star charts.

At the moment, Mars is opposing Uranus, which is bad news, Mr. Crawford says. But it's a phenomenon that happens every couple of years and the market does not crash every time, he points out.

Another ill harbinger this time is the buoyant mood in markets in recent weeks.

"Sentiment indicators are rather extreme."

Mr. Crawford adds that the intensity of upcoming planetary movements may also prove to be turning points for coffee, orange juice, cattle, lumber and the like -- although whether the price swings up or down will depend on the commodity.

The newsletter publisher, who used to trade gold for a living, has been advising investors for some time to put their money into assets in the ground. For 2005, he expects metals and minerals to trade sideways to down until August, at which time they may head up.

His newsletter, which is in its 28th year, has called such red-letter days in the stock market as the crash of October, 1987, Mr. Crawford says.

Carolyn Leitch

<img width=531 height=468 src=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Sharp... >

-- posted by Kirk