Arch Crawford

» Kirk - 3/18/03 WebFN Interfiew

As of today, Arch is Stopped out of half his shorts but maintains his other shorts (50%).

If the second set of stops is hit, then he will go long.

He says the Bradley model that he follows some is positive now so he is not as bearish as he has been.

-- posted by Kirk

» Kirk - Arch Crawford Bio

You have heard about his fantastic record. You've seen him on CNBC, Adam Smith's Money World, Nightly Business Report, Sightings, Wall St Journal Report, Good Morning America, ABC’s 20/20 and Geraldo.

ARCH CRAWFORD, editor and publisher of Crawford Perspectives for over 20 years, cut his Technical Analysis teeth as first assistant to Top Wall St technician, Robert Farrell at Merrill Lynch (1961-64) and was said by Kiplinger's Personal Finance to be the "...only one market-timing newsletter among several dozen timers tracked by Hulbert Financial Digest (that) has outpaced the simple strategy of buying and holding...the S&P500... over the past five years."

"The Street's best known Astrologer" (according to BARRON'S) has made some astounding market calls, including "The best Bull Market in 15 years" (WSJ-1981) and the Exact Top and Crash in 1987, using a combination of technical analysis and astronomic cycles.

Ranked #1 for the First Half of 2002 by TIMER DIGEST, he finished the year in the #2 spot for the entire 12 months out of over 110 best known market newsletters.

Actual accounts at RYDEX Funds, monitored by www.selectadvisor.com ranked #4 & #10 for 2002 out of 600+ accounts of 292 advisors, showing a return of 60%+ for the year.

Crawford gave a Major Long Term BUY Signal for GOLD in early April of 2001. The GOLD Stock group has been the best performing group for all of 2001 and all of 2002!

-- posted by Kirk

» Jas_Jain - Re: 3/18/03 WebFN Interfiew

We need Technical "Anal"ysts like these. No wonder that we have the volatility, which I love.

The ONLY sensible trading method is one in which you sell more at higher prices and you buy more (or cover) at the lower prices. Is that so difficult?

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Kirk - 6/19/03: Arch is now Super Bearish

Velociraptor,

Arch Crawford was just on CNBC. He recommended long on March 13 and then 200% long on margin from April 11. He is now selling 1/2 of his position and plans to go short sometime in the first week of July.

But the big bomb he dropped was when said that he believes the recent rally was the end of the "B" corrective wave and we start the "C" wave this summer and take out the lows and go lower for the next couple of years!

gulp... lower lows!

If this is in the stars, then wouldn't all our actions also be in the stars?

-- posted by Kirk

» DellaO - Re: 6/19/03: Arch is now Super Bearish

I remember being astonished that an educated, respected man like Jim would have a "voodoo" guy as a serious guest.

Since I do not take the "stars" as a serious market timing method, I never paid much attention when Crawford was on. I do, however, remember some of his more "scary" predictions. And, I also remember that NONE of them ever came true.

Sadly, Jim never pointed out that fact...

-- posted by DellaO

» hairie31 - Re: 6/19/03: Arch is now Super Bearish

I recall Arch Crawford was on CNBC in early/mid-2002 and predicted inc Dow would drop 1000 points in one day in the coming weeks. That never happened or anything even close. However, in that same interview he predicted the Dow would hit a low in the first week of October 2002.
Very Accurate...October 9, 2002 was the low of 2002.

I hope hope his new prediections are accurate.

Maybe we will see if the traditional gauges of the market being overvalued (P/E, VIX and Sentiment Figures) are still working.

-- posted by hairie31

» hairie31 - August 29th to November 23, 2003

Arch went 100 % short on 7-3-03 after aggressively buying into the Market in March & April.

He's now predicting a catastrophic event on August 29th that will send the market spiraling down to a bottom on Novemeber 23, 2003.

The reasons I seriously listen to what he has to say is first off his recent record has been excellent and he did predict a catastrophic world event would happen on Sept 9, 2001, driving us into war.

What interests me is August 29 is in a 3 week period (August 22 to September 15) when Major bull runs have peaked and were followed by significant or massive declines. (i.e. 1889,1895,1898,1899,1929, 1939,1987,1999,2000(a double top) 2001 and 2002)

I don't rule out the possiblity that Astrology influences the pivotal points in manias and panics
on Wall Street.

I'm paying special attention to Arch's gloomy prediction for this fall, because September & October are the months when market crashes have historically occurred.

-- posted by hairie31

» Kirk - July 3 Sell Signal; 200% short

August 2, 2003: Arch Crawford of Crawford Perspectives is on a July 3 Sell signal. His work is pointing to a potentially weak period into a November low and is favoring the short side of the stock market.

August 6, 2003: Arch Crawford of Crawford Perspectives is on a July 3 Sell signal. Although some have said that the Bradley indicator may be inverting, and markets will be shooting higher, he said market internals do not share that view.

August 14, 2003: Arch Crawford of Crawford Perspectives is on a July 3 Sell signal. He continues to hold a 200% short position, in anticipation of weakness ahead.

The chart shows he sold near the top of the recent rally... so far, so good:
<img src=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Sharp... width=520 height=551>

  Date       Kirk    S&P500   Delta
2003 YTD    +38.8%   13.0%    25.8%  as of 8/13/2003
 

                                Kirk   S&P500+  NASDAQ 
4.5+ Yrs 12/31/98 to 08/13/03  112.9%  (14.7%) (23.1%)
Annualized Annual Return        17.8%  ( 3.4%) ( 5.5%)
 
+with dividends reinvested. All Numbers unaudited. 
Click for a free issue of my newsletter .

-- posted by Kirk

» Tweeter - Bad Moon a Rising

NEW YORK - Anyone gazing upward into the eastern midnight sky cannot miss the red planet's prominent stature on the astral canvas. Because of the new moon this week, Mars is the brightest object in the nighttime sky, and for good reason: On Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, Mars will be at its nearest distance from Earth since the year 57,617 B.C. It won't be this close again until the year 2287. Market strategists who put stock in financial astrology regard the Martian perigee--and several other traditionally bearish astrological phenomena--with trepidation, and say that deteriorating market fundamentals and technicals presage a pullback in September.
You can stop laughing now. Believe it or not, financial advisories that use astrology to time the market have performed exceptionally well over the last three years. One top-performing service is Crawford Perspectives, which according to Timer Digest is up 32% in the last 12 months. Says editor Arch Crawford, "The meanings for Mars are war, explosions, desire, anger, and also major revolution and economic warfare." Since Aug. 6, he's been 200% (fully margined) short the S&P 500 Index, based on ominous astrology and more traditional signs that the market is topping, including several indicators that haven't been so bearish since 1987, such as insider selling and extreme bullish adviser sentiment, as well as steeply rising bond yields. Crawford also cites a declining ratio of new highs to new lows, as well as a rising Volatility Index (VIX). A break above 24 or 25 on the VIX, says Crawford, would be the definitive signal that a sizable market decline is under way.

Mars' current proximity to Earth, says Crawford, makes violence and natural disasters more likely; as a hedge, he's buying gold and gold shares, and advises shorting exchange-traded funds like the Diamonds (amex: DIA), Spyders (amex: SPY) and the Qs (amex: QQQ). Since June, according to Crawford, Saturn has been in the sign of Cancer (zodiac symbol of the United States and President George W. Bush). This also implies constrictions on the U.S.--specifically more weakness in the dollar.
Besides the Martian influence, Bill Meridian of Cycles Research sees Jupiter opposing Pluto and Uranus as bearish formations. Jupiter-Pluto is associated with terrorism and mayhem (it occurred just before Sept. 11, 2001), and the Jupiter-Uranus opposition has coincided with an average Dow drop of 2% since 1915. Add in that Sept. 5 is the average high point for stocks during the year, and Meridian is forecasting a September decline in the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq--which is also traditionally weak in September. Look for lows in October, 6% to 8% off of the Sept. 5 high.

Financial stocks have already begun a downtrend, says Meridian, and he recommends bearish plays like buying puts on American Express (nyse: AXP - news - people ) or shorting J.P. Morgan Chase (nyse: JPM - news - people ) and Citigroup (nyse: C - news - people ). Like Crawford, Meridian is also buying gold stocks, Newmont Mining (nyse: NEM - news - people ) in particular.

"Raise cash, be cautious, and buy gold if you don't already own some," counsels Henry Weingarten, editor of Wall Street Next Week, who has short positions on all three major stock indexes. Wednesday's new moon combined with Mars' historic proximity, says Weingarten, indicates that a swing toward bearishness is in the works. He recommends shorting Nasdaq tech stocks with price-to-earnings ratios greater than 100, such as eBay (nadaq: EBAY - news - people ) and Yahoo! (nasdaq: YHOO - news - people ). Also, he points out, Cancer is the sign of the home--meaning that real estate will suffer along with the U.S. and President Bush. Weingarten calls it a "crash," and says the stars and rising rates are conspiring to bring it on.
Even if you don't buy these planetary predictions, a look up into the night sky will showcase Mars shining bright, just as it does every August. It's a visible reminder of the presence of cycles in nature. Markets also tend to move in cycles. These bears are merely predicting that the intense rally since March will at some point run its course, too.

-- posted by Tweeter