Arch Crawford

» eccm - Re: Bad Moon a Rising

""Look for lows in October, 6% to 8% off of the Sept. 5 high. ""

Am I reading this right? He expects an 8% crash of some kind? Does anybody worry about this sort of thing?

-- posted by eccm

» smile_1 - Re: Bad Moon a Rising

Since Aug. 6, he's (Arch) been 200% (fully margined) short the S&P 500 Index

wonder how ol' Arch is sleeping these days

looking a little toppy, and overbought

-- posted by smile_1

» hairie31 - More Gloom & Doom

He sees something horrible is coming down the pike and there appears to be a maniacal element involved.

Arch has had very good and very bad calls in the past.

Arch Crawford, summarized since 3-13-03:

3-13-2003: Buy Signal 100 % long
4-11-2003: 200 % long
6-19-2003: Sold 1/2 his positions
7-3-2003: Sell Signal,100 % short
8-14-2003: 200 % short

I've calculated his performance since his buy signal of 3-13-2003 to 11-6-2003, based on the S & P 500:

Arch Crawford: + 11.5 %
S & P 500: + 27 %

I don't know if between January 1, 2003 and March 12, 2003 if he was
100 % in cash or was shorting the market.

If someone has that info I'd like to use it to recalulate his performance for the whole year, which would make his YTD performance more accurate.

-- posted by hairie31

» Kirk - Re: More Gloom & Doom

I wonder if we can reconstruct a full performance record for Arch? Thanks for starting it.

I found this site that rates people

http://www.wallstreetbaloney.com/wsb_rat...

<img src=http://www.wallstreetbaloney.com/attachm... width=154 height=300 align=left>WHO: Arch Crawford

WHAT: Astrology-Based Stock Market Analyst

QUOTE: Oct 6, 2001 - "JUPITER OPPOSES PLUTO AND THE FULL MOON FRIDAY (13TH) BEFORE THE OPEN WILL EXACERBATE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION TO MAXIMUM LEVELS OF EMOTION! MAJOR SOLAR STORMS AND MAGNETIC PHENOMENA AT A FULL MOON TIMES THE MOST POWERFUL EFFECTS!" Source: AstroMoney.Com

January 1, 1998 - "This market is overvalued, overbought, overaged and overindulged. Jumpin Jupiter! It is a historical sell at hysterical levels, even if it decides to rise one more time." Source: InvestorHome.Com

Ranking:

Full of Baloney?
625 people (66%)

Straight Shooter?
318 people (34%)

Looks like most of you think Arch Crawford is "Full of Baloney!"

Here is their top 10 Baloney Kings http://www.wallstreetbaloney.com/baloney...

and top 10 straight shooters
http://www.wallstreetbaloney.com/straigh...

Year-to-date:
 
  Date       Kirk    S&P500   Delta
2003 YTD    +72.6%   +21.2%   51.4%  as of 11/05/2003 
 

Total Return:
                                Kirk   S&P500+  NASDAQ 
4.75+ Yrs 12/31/98 to 11/05/03 164.6%  ( 8.5%) (10.6%)
Annualized Annual Return        22.2%  ( 1.8%) ( 2.3%) 
 
	
9/30/98 Inception Value:   $100,000
9/30/03 5 yrs later value: $345,395 up 245.4%
S&P500 between 9/30/98 and 9/30/03: up   4.6%
With dividends reinvested. All Numbers unaudited. 
Click for a free issue of my newsletter 
Suitable for the aggressive growth part of your 
diversified investment portfolio. 

-- posted by Kirk

» Kirk - abdominal track record

lmazoff...crawford is trackt by timer digest...abdominal track record..nobody follows arch....200% short from him is a buy signal...lolol

-- posted by Kirk

» Kirk - Crawford is Looking for Major Crash

To:Chip McVickar who started this subject
From: Chip McVickar Monday, Sep 20, 2004 10:37 AM
Respond to of 3312

Notes on Astro Cycles....
Next Big Days.... Sept 21st and 22nd

This September is loaded with convergent cycles...
Here's a Look.

Astro folks:
Hitt is looking for Major Crash
Zimmell is looking for Major Crash
K.N. Rao is looking for Major Crash
Prickter is looking for Major Crash
Crawford is Looking for Major Crash
Mahendra is looking for a Major Crash
There are others....

Bradley Model on Stocks peaked April 27th... bottoms 9th December

A Few Bulls:
Merriman
Reminick
Het

<img width=531 height=301 src=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Sharp... >

-- posted by Kirk

» Normxxx - Re: Crawford is Looking for Major Crash

Merriman is only 50% invested. But his is not a forecast. He uses a trend following model.

http://www.fundadvice.com/hotline.html

-- posted by Normxxx

» Kirk - U.S. market crash is in the stars

U.S. market crash is in the stars

Planet alignment leads one market analyst to predict equity gloom. Other experts have more conventional approaches, ANGELA BARNES and CAROLYN LEITCH report

By Carolyn Leitch and Angela Barnes
Saturday, January 1, 2005 - Page B6

Arch Crawford

An ominous alignment of the planets leads Arch Crawford, publisher of the financial newsletter Crawford Perspectives, to predict the U.S. stock market will crash before March 23. "It could be any time between now and then."

Mr. Crawford, based in Tucson, Ariz., advises readers of his newsletter how to pick stocks, in part based on the alignment of the stars.

Mr. Crawford is a market timer who consults more conventional technical analysis measures -- including advance-decline lines, moving averages and trading volume -- but for a longer-term view, he analyzes the market's star charts.

At the moment, Mars is opposing Uranus, which is bad news, Mr. Crawford says. But it's a phenomenon that happens every couple of years and the market does not crash every time, he points out.

Another ill harbinger this time is the buoyant mood in markets in recent weeks.

"Sentiment indicators are rather extreme."

Mr. Crawford adds that the intensity of upcoming planetary movements may also prove to be turning points for coffee, orange juice, cattle, lumber and the like -- although whether the price swings up or down will depend on the commodity.

The newsletter publisher, who used to trade gold for a living, has been advising investors for some time to put their money into assets in the ground. For 2005, he expects metals and minerals to trade sideways to down until August, at which time they may head up.

His newsletter, which is in its 28th year, has called such red-letter days in the stock market as the crash of October, 1987, Mr. Crawford says.

Carolyn Leitch

<img width=531 height=468 src=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Sharp... >

-- posted by Kirk

» Kirk - Arch is 200% Short

04/22/2005 ET
Symbol Last
.DJI = 10,183.65
.IXIC = 1,940.44
.SPX = 1,156.23
As of: 2:30pm

-- posted by Kirk

» hairie31 - Entire CNBC Interview

Interview today on CNBC 4-22-2005
-------------------------------
First they showed a clip of his February 9, 2005 appearance where he advised "For Traders Only" to go long on January 31, 2005 and hold till Option Expiration day, February 18, 2005 and then go 200 % short again.

He looked for a severe low between March 10 to March 23, 2005.
------------------------------
Today's Interview: 4-22-2005

Have stayed 200% short since December 31, 2004 and as of 2 days ago we had increase of 14% in the S & P 500.

Sees huge top formation like 1998 to 2000 period.

Ready for "real" decline to start in the market.

Coming Astrological Predictions:

Sunday, April 24, 2005:
Lunar Eclipse, is a high emotion day. Can be in Stocks, Terrorism or Earthquakes.

May 2, 2005: Saturn squares Moon's Node=mergers fail, partners split, bad for stocks

May 8, 2005: New Moon squares, Neptune=Gold & Oil up

May 10, 2005: Energy fizzles

-- posted by hairie31