MarketVVizard's Market Thoughts
- Normxxx
- pbradford6
- Kirk
- Normxxx
- hairie31
- Makena
- MarketVVizard
- MarketVVizard
- Kirk
- MarketVVizard
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» Normxxx - Re: Re: Re: Re: ALAN ABELSON, Perennial Bear
In response to message posted by Kirk:Yes, Kirk, but not everyone can pick stocks that go up 2500% in a rally. As you can see, the average investor who attempted to dollar cost average from 1997 is still down, even after the most recent rally. But many investors who were sucked into the internet and high tech stock world, and didn't have a clue as to what most of the high flyers were doing for a living, are still down 50% or more.
<img SRC="http://www.cross-currents.net/archives/j...">
As a matter of fact, I believe that good stock pickers , such as yourself, can and do weather just about any market. But that is not the average experience. I weathered the 2000 - 2002 bear using the Seasonal Timing Strategy, but there is a luck factor there, obviously. However, luck is involved even with good stock picking (as you, yourself admit, you need to avoid crooks and companies that have disasters).
Modern Portfoio Theory alone is not good enough. An MPT portfolio is still down (by 1/3, based on the S&P) for the stock asset class. There were many ways to have avoided the recent drop: you pick good, undervalued stocks and have the guts to stick with them, I chose STS, Hussman uses hedging. But you still need an extra kicker to survive major market down moves. If you use DPT, it also helps to use uncorrelated classes; I was also lucky in using classes that all went up (Bonds, Gold, REITS, Emerging Markets, and stocks in season).
Also, you have to actively stay on top of your choices (as you point out, if the outlook for a stock changes, you adjust accordingly). In 2000, when I saw that a recession was highly probable, I switched into strip mall REITs, which typically are not very affected by hard times. I wish I had been smart enough to switch some money into stripped bonds. Also, I usually buy Emerging Market Stocks only after a crash, and then gradually sell them off as things get frothy.
But I agree with you that you cannot rely on any principle which requires that you know the direction of the market. I was obviously wrong this summer; and I may be bearish, but if you went strictly on portents and feelings, the only time you would invest in the market would be at the tops, which is what most people do. I maintain that we are in a topping period now, but STS is invested, so I am invested. But, so far, only 25% of my normal stock asset class allocation, because my market indicators tell me that the market is very intermediate term overbought.
-- posted by Normxxx
» pbradford6 - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: ALAN ABELSON, Perennial Bear
In response to message posted by Normxxx:As you can see, the average investor who attempted to dollar cost average from 1997 is still down, even after the most recent rally
Thanks for a very interesting chart on DCA. Do you have a web link to this chart?
-- posted by pbradford6
» Kirk - Re: Cross-currents
.In response to message posted by pbradford6:
Here is the link
http://www.cross-currents.net/archives/j...
I find this graphic the most troubling:
<img src=http://www.cross-currents.net/archives/j...>
where they conclude: "Much lower valuations are necessary to end the secular bear market. "
They posted targets for the market below (please not how they leave themselves room to update low targets) that have already been broken on the upside (SPX is in a correction and sits at 1035, the NASDAQ is off a high at 1893) Many bears had a SPX line in the sand at 1015. This should illustrate how useless predictions are and what I enjoyed is if I surf around I see they are not making new predictions for tops and bottoms... that I could find. Probably learned a short term lesson. 
New targets for 2003:
Dow 9352-9400 /// SPX 1015 /// Nasdaq Composite 1776
(all print basis - all achieved)
Our forecast for 2003 still places the lows for the year at:
Dow 6400 /// SPX 680 /// Nasdaq 1000-1100
These low side targets will be adjusted upwards within several weeks if supports at Dow 8871, SPX 962 & Nasdaq 1598 do not fall.
Alan M. Newman, July 26, 2003
-- posted by Kirk
» hairie31 - P/E & Div.Yld. 1917-1942
In response to message posted by Kirk:Here are the P/E ratios and Dividend Yields at major market bottoms from 1917- 1942:
12/1/1917; PE: 3.3, DIV YLD: 12.2
8/21/1921; PE: 8.52, DIV YLD: 6
7/1/1932; PE: 8, DIV YLD: 11.2
4/1/1942; PE 10, DIV YLD: 6.9
-- posted by hairie31
» Makena - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Mortgages
"Sir John" loves his bloody England so much he left the country to avoid paying his "fair share" back in taxes.Really? As I recall, he was born in Tennessee, never lived in England, emigrated to the Bahamas (UK possession), and finally took UK citizenship because he decided to make his permanent home in the Bahamas and the Governor asked him to become a citizen. He has claimed that it could not have been a tax dodge as so many think, and in fact he pays more taxes (to the UK of course) than he would have paid (to the US) had he stayed a US citizen.
Where do you get your facts? Can you give some links or did you just guess or invent it?
-- posted by Makena
» MarketVVizard - OK I'll bite
Jas -- explain how printing massive amounts of new Dollars and running up massive inefficient deficits (in both trade and government spending) results in more value for each dollar already in circulation. Oh, and if this process really does create real value, why are prices of nearly every commodity skyrocketing? Why is the dollar hitting new lows against the Yen? Do you know what countries are holding Dollars and what countries are holding Yen? How much of each?There's no way I will ever read Precter's book, but didn't he say prices of everything (including gold) would drop? Hasn't panned out, has it? So when do you think this great increase in value of the dollar will occur? Will something specific happen to spark the move? Do you believe our country's debt is a good value with improving prospects? Should it sell for significantly high prices (and lower yield)?
-- posted by MarketVVizard
» MarketVVizard - U.S. to double offshore tech services?
U.S. to double offshore tech services?NEW YORK (Reuters) -- U.S. technology services market will double its usage of low-cost countries next year, but much of the work will still be captured by U.S. providers as they beef up their operations abroad, market research firm IDC said.
The offshore spending component of the U.S. technology services market will rise to 10 percent of the total spending, or $16.3 billion, in 2003. IDC also expects offshore spending to more than quadruple to $46 billion, or 23 percent of the total, by 2007.
Indeed, much of the U.S. services market growth, projected by IDC to be 6.1 percent a year, will ultimately be delivered by workers in countries such as India, China and Russia.
In contrast, work being done domestically will increase merely 3 percent in the next four years.
"The immediately reaction to this data might be to declare both demise of United States-based vendors and a stagnant U.S. job market," Ned May, author of the study, said this week.
"However, though the delivery of IT services will increasingly come from offshore, much of the spending will continue to be captured by locally based vendors who build up their offshore delivery resources," he said.
Last year India's top five technology firms generated more than $3 billion in revenue, with the majority originated from the U.S. market, as cost-conscious companies increasingly demand offshore component in every deal they sign, IDC said.
U.S. services companies, such as Accenture Ltd., Computer Sciences Corp., Electronic Data Systems Corp. and BearingPoint Inc. also experienced higher outsourcing demand, though pricing pressure continues.
"They are all aggressively building their own global offshore capabilities," May said. "They will continue to be successful players."
The offshore sourcing trend will have the largest impact on maintenance and support activities, with almost 27 percent of the market spending going abroad in 2007.
In comparison, information technology education and training will remain relatively resilient against the wind, the study said.
-- posted by MarketVVizard
» Kirk - Re: Templeton
.In response to message posted by Makena:
My favorite quote from John Tempelton was when he was on Rukeysers show when he said "I am wrong about half the time."
It seems I too am guilty. I KNOW he was born in the US but I keep making that mistake thinking a knight (Sir John title) needs to be a British Citizen. This is one of those mistakes that seems burned into my permanent memory banks.
It doesn't change the fact his market timing is often terrible. His "Tempelton Funds" business was worth far more at the end of the 1990's than when he sold it to Franklin in 1992.
As for taxes, why would a US citizen give up something so many die for but to save on taxes? If I was the Governor of the Bahamaz I'd ask rich people to come to my country too so as they'd pay my salary. My guess is Templeton gives away what he saves on taxes, but he made the money in the US.
I do admire the man for his views on religion where he has the rare ability to look at the "New Age" movement for the good it offers.
Typical of Templeton's wide-lens view of spirituality and ethics, the dedicated Presbyterian admits to additional influence from the New Thought movements of Christian Science, Unity and Religious Science. Those metaphysical churches espouse a non-literal view of heaven and hell, and suggest a shared divinity between God and humanity. "We realize that our own divinity arises from something more than merely being 'God's children' or being 'made in his image,'" Templeton wrote. Sir John does not claim credentials as a theologian as much as someone with enough money to stir new research pursuing further "knowledge and love of God."
http://www.templeton.org/sir_john_temple...
He is a great man and great thinker, but he himself admits he is not much better than 50:50 on calling market direction.
-- posted by Kirk
» MarketVVizard - NVLS
I'm taking profits. No reason to be short going into the conference call tonight. Possibly short into the news. Holiday euphoria in the air...-- posted by MarketVVizard
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