MarketVVizard's Market Thoughts

» Kirk - Re: Thoughts...

Not to mention the ridiculously low probability of me actually calling the 2003 market top to the exact day...

Call a top often enough and you will eventually be right.

I got a kick how so many long term perma bears were featured guests on CNBC type shows a year ago... sort of replaced Joe Batapaglia and Abby Cohen as weather vanes.

-- posted by Kirk

» Austrian - Re: Thoughts...

Thanks,

Austrian

-- posted by Austrian

» oli - Re: Re: Thoughts...

Kirk, what you feeling or instinct? Do you think we have a market top?

-- posted by oli

» MarketVVizard - Re: Re: Thoughts...

"VViz, What makes this indicator look ominous today versus last month or July, or May?"

Oh, sorry wasn't very clear there. Ominous for the shorts, meaning when down volume builds to the extreme levels indicated, the market often bounces. As I hinted though, I think the "normal" indicators are unreliable at market turns, and this seems like a market turn to me.

As a few of you may actually remember, I am NOT a "technician". That said, a technician sent me this chart today:

<img src="http://www.creationfaq.net/VViz/nasdaq_uptrend_broken.jpg" alt="Click to Enlarge" width=520>

-- posted by MarketVVizard

» Kirk - Re: Re: Re: Thoughts...

You got my newsletter yesterday and my "buy" of a stock today via email since you are a subscriber. Nothing has changed from what I wrote in the market outlook.

I'm not paid well enough to look stupid calling market tops and bottoms.

I'd just say my top stocks, CACS and Agilent today, would not be 4-5% in the green if the market was selling off with any conviction. Perhaps it is just time for a rotation or profit taking with the latest news on oil prices, etc.

It does look like one of my penny stocks finally broke support so I get an opportunity to look really stupid for awhile unless it reverses quickly.

-- posted by Kirk

» MarketVVizard - Euro

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to a record low against the euro in New York trading after net foreign purchases of U.S. securities in September fell to the lowest in five years, a government report showed.

A drop in stocks and bonds bought by international investors makes it harder for the U.S. to finance the deficit in its current account, the broadest measure of trade and investment. The Treasury Department said foreigners bought a net $4.19 billion in September, down from $49.9 billion in August and the smallest since $1.17 billion in September 1998.

``The big question remains whether foreign investors will be attracted to U.S. assets and keep flows coming in at a pace enough to offset the current account deficit,'' said Rebecca Patterson, global currency strategist at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in New York. ``The dollar is weakening further from here.''

As of 2:11 p.m. in New York, the dollar was at $1.1937 per euro, compared with $1.1749 yesterday, its biggest decline since June 5. It fell as low as $1.1956. The previous low was $1.1933 per euro on May 27. The dollar has declined against 15 of the 16 major currencies this year, with the exception being the Mexican peso. It fell to 107.96 yen from 108.92. Patterson forecast the dollar will decline to $1.20 per euro by year-end.

The euro, a currency shared by a dozen European Union nations, debuted on Jan. 1 1999, and rose as high as $1.1804 in its first day of trading. It fell as low as 82.3 U.S. cents in October 2000.

The dollar's decline accelerated as it past previously set orders to sell the currency at specific levels, or so-called stops, such as $1.1810 per euro, $1.1845 and $1.1933, according to Chris Melendez, president of Tempest Asset Management, a hedge fund in Irvine, California.

China Trade

Declines also accelerated after the Bush administration said it intends to limit imports of some textiles and apparel from China to stem a record flow of goods from that nation and protect mills in states such as North Carolina. U.S. textile and apparel companies such as Milliken & Co. had said rising imports from China threaten to put U.S. and Caribbean manufacturers out of business.

``Every time the U.S. imposes more trade sanctions, it's a sign the dollar is going to weaken,'' said Kenneth Landon, senior currency strategist, at Deutsche Bank AG in New York. ``At the same time, it's a sign of lower inflows to the country.''

Some U.S. companies and lawmakers blame China's currency policy -- which pegs the yuan at about 8.3 to the dollar -- for the increasing U.S. trade deficit and some of the 2.5 million job losses in the manufacturing sector during President George W. Bush's tenure.

Looking Elsewhere

Some investors are buying debt of nations with higher interest rates. The benchmark Australian 10-year note, yields 1.66 percentage points more than Treasuries with comparable maturity, up from 1.30 percentage points on Oct. 1. Australia's dollar is up 5.8 percent versus the dollar this quarter, second only to the 6.36 percent gain for the New Zealand dollar among the 17 most widely traded currencies.

``There's no doubt the U.S. economy is rebounding, but the underlying factor impacting the dollar is the record current account deficit and insufficient inflows to finance it,'' said Margaret Browne, a currency analyst at HSBC Bank USA Inc. ``The difference in interest rates is still playing an important part and favoring the euro.''

In the second quarter, the deficit in the current account held at a record $138.7 billion. The U.S. has had to borrow more money overseas to satisfy demand for imported goods and services to finance investment not covered by U.S. savings.

-- posted by MarketVVizard

» azxcvbnm - Re: Euro

Kirk might not be stupid enough to call the market, but I am. There are just too many ignorant people getting money this time of year for the market not to go to new highs. One of my friends doesn't even know which mutual fund his 401K is in, but he keeps on investing 6% of his income in it. Many are going to get their bonuses, and guess where that money is going to go after they buy that new TV? Mutual Funds and Hedge Funds are locking in profits right now, there's no news behind this recent correction.

-- posted by azxcvbnm

» Kirk - Re: What Regular Folks are Buying

There are just too many ignorant people getting money this time of year for the market not to go to new highs. One of my friends doesn't even know which mutual fund his 401K is in, but he keeps on investing 6% of his income in it.

Good point!

I am just amazed at how some folks who have lost a TON of money on stocks (percentage basis) that have learned nothing and are back buying. I have a lady friend who keeps asking me what stocks to buy and she doesn't want to talk about asset allocation, etc.. she just wants "cheap stocks that will go up." The stocks that meet her screen are those that have a name and were once higher. She ran down a list last night (Oracle, Lucent, Sun, etc.) and I kept saying "bad business" or "too expensive" or "crummy managemenet" as I wouldn't own any on her list... yet any I suggested were either unknown (small and mid cap where I am making a killing. Everyone knows HP but who the hell knows that the real HP talent went to Agilent as the current HP is just the old "Computer Group"?) or too dull (dividend payers or reliable tech companies like IBM and HP that don't over pay with options and have clean accounting.)

BTW, one of the large caps in my portfolio is up over 30% YTD, is one of the most profitable companies on the planet in total dollars, makes over $3 a share on trailing earnings and sells for about $45, earnings have grown from just over $1 a share in 1999 to about $3.50 today --- compound THAT! --- and pays a 3% dividend! But who wants to own a boring "expensive stock" when there are names like Cisco and Lucent out there that are not near new highs like some of the quality "expensive" stocks are?

Too many look at $45 as expensive compared to $20 or $2 as they don't know squat about earnings, PEG, debt, margins, etc...

Year-to-date:
 
  Date       Kirk    S&P500   Delta
2003 YTD    +75.2%    21.1%   54.1%  as of 11/16/2003 
 

Total Return:
                                 Kirk   S&P500+  NASDAQ 
4.75+ Yrs 12/31/98 to 11/16/03  168.7% ( 8.6%) (12.0%)
Annualized Annual Return         21.5% ( 1.8%) ( 2.6%)  
 
  
9/30/98 Inception Value:   $100,000
9/30/03 5 yrs later value: $345,395 up 245.4%
S&P500 between 9/30/98 and 9/30/03: up   4.6%
With dividends reinvested. All Numbers unaudited. 
Click for a free issue of my newsletter 
Suitable for the aggressive growth part of your 
diversified investment portfolio. 

-- posted by Kirk

» MarketVVizard - Thoughts

It seems to me that yesterday was a somewhat predictable bounce (based on the 3 day up/down volume) but it could have been a one day wonder. Not sure. Gold finally got above $400, albeit only for a few minutes, not a big deal.

MRVL had decent earnings last night but the stock tanked anyway, almost 10%. Same deal with NTAP -- numbers OK but stock down 10% after call. Are these exceptions or is selling news back in style again? NVLS has a mid quarter conference call on Monday, the analysts are already pounding the table suggesting they will guide higher (which should be fully baked in now but who knows).

-- posted by MarketVVizard

» MarketVVizard - Re: Thoughts

Seems to me that anyone still long this market is about to give back 2003 profits...

-- posted by MarketVVizard