MarketVVizard's Market Thoughts

Top 490. Nov 16, 2003 6:00 AM

» Jas_Jain - Welfare State and Moral Corruption -- Re: Re: 401k article

In response to message posted by azxcvbnm:

--

azxcvbnm: “Yes, the live-for-today mentality will be hard to change because it's a direct result of Social Security and the expansion of government. People have the idea now that they SHOULD be taken care for by the government, so why bother to save? You'll get social security if you're poor, plus welfare, and whatever other social programs are out there. There really is no incentive to save as the government will just lower your benefits if you happen to be responsible and have enough money to live on when you retire. This is what angers me the most, but the solutions are tough and probably unacceptable to most Americans. To create incentive, the safety net has to be removed, and that means allowing Americans who were irresponsible to find help from family or private charities and let them die if they somehow can't. I doubt that will happen to the majority of Americans as private charities and family have done a great job of being the provider of last resort in the past before all the social programs, but there will be a few people who fall through the cracks and no doubt the media will focus on them. Of course, they won't focus on all the bad choices that got them there, but will America accept it? I doubt it.”

Amen. Welfare state can work only if the population is relatively responsible and homogeneous (with common Beliefs and Habits instilled over a very long period), as was the case in northern European countries and Japan. However, things are changing in northern Europe as well, as common Beliefs and Habits are being lost there.

Welfare state is not suited for a country like America and it has played a major role in corrupting the Beliefs and Habits of the population. To paraphrase Warren Buffet, the sage, Thriftsville has been turned into Squanderville. Trust me, thoroughly corrupted Americans, mostly over the past 45 years, which saw the explosion of the welfare state, will suffer during the coming decades-long Greater Depression. Moral corruption of Beliefs and Habits exacts its price.

No Constitution can save corrupt people from themselves. In time, monarchy corrupts the monarchs and democracy corrupts the demos! Yes, there are no real solutions to America's problem, because the problem is: Their Royal Highnesses, aka, "American People."

Americans are in denial of the moral corruption that always results in a democracy, given time, as Prof. Tyler noted more than 200 years ago. That time has already arrived for Americans. The corporate corruption and financial corruption is all part of the general corruption of American mind.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

Top 491. Nov 16, 2003 6:41 PM

» collguy - Re: Re: 401k article

I don't disagree with your opinion on Americans living for today, but I don't think entitlement programs are the cause. The meager allotment supplied by Social Security and/or welfare are hardly an incentive not to save unless your goal is to be poor. I believe the cause is a materialistic culture which measures success by how many toys you have as well as a sense of impatience which is the result of TV, the Internet and instant gratification. Most Americans simply lack the self discipline required of a rigorous savings plan. Also, the demise of defined benefit plans and the steady decline of real wages as well as other benefits make it a more difficult task. Other factors such as a rising divorce rate and out of wedlock birth rate make saving even more unrealistic.

-- posted by collguy

Top 492. Nov 16, 2003 7:40 PM

» azxcvbnm - Re: Re: Re: 401k article

In response to message posted by collguy:

No you can't live rich off of social security or welfare, but you can live comfortably. Unfortunately, even if you were responsible, it would still be hard to live rich, due to taxes and smaller benefits because of your discipline. In all, it makes no difference if you save or not, and that's my point. Why not buy that big screen TV now if the government will give you money later on, and will just take away the money if you don't spend it. Humans are very good at understanding incentive and will do what it takes to optimize their happiness.

I do agree with you about the rising divorce rates and out of wedlock births. Too much has been made about "feeling good", and doing things for yourself. If you've ever been in a relationship, you know that things aren't good all the time, but will it be better if you leave? Maybe for a short time. If those people would just spend as much effort on their old relationship as they do finding a new relationship, the nation as a whole would be much better. But you never hear (except on conservative talk radio) about what I've just said.

-- posted by azxcvbnm

Top 493. Nov 16, 2003 7:52 PM

» MarketVVizard - Random musings

NIKKEI is plunging right now: 9,796.80 down 370.26 points (-3.64%). Gold touched $399.50 this evening too. Futures down pretty good. That NVLS short is looking great.

Barrons had a decent article ("That Empty Feeling") regarding real estate. The #1 and #4 best selling non-fiction books on Amazon right now are Flipping Properties: Generate Instant Cash Profits in Real Estate" and "Real Estate Riches: How to Become Rich Using Your Banker's Money"

Nothing real surprising, but the article summarized the facts: vacancies have risen to multiyear highs (12%) while rents have declined (albeit slightly) for 5 years, wile landlords' expenses, especially insurance and taxes, have risen. This, in the face of rising property prices due to speculation, low interest rates.

I should add that in 2003 so far we have already exceeded 2002's record for personal bankruptcies:
<img src=http://www.sltrib.com/2003/Nov/11152003/...>

-- posted by MarketVVizard

Top 494. Nov 16, 2003 8:17 PM

» collguy - Re: Re: Re: Re: 401k article

Azxcvbnm-Most Americans under 50 aren't really thinking much about retirement or Social Security, so I just don't think it's a factor. Also, in most urban area, you cannot live comfortably on a real middle income type person's SS check, unless you are in really good health with no regular bills other than taxes and utilities.

-- posted by collguy

Top 495. Nov 16, 2003 8:19 PM

» collguy - Re: Random musings

A real war this morning between the Gold Bugs and the Central Bankers at the $400 mark. Dollar is also taking its daily drubbing.

-- posted by collguy

Top 496. Nov 17, 2003 11:56 AM

» MarketVVizard - Semi Equipment Manufacturers -- Gold

When was the last time you can remember an ugly market day with the NASDAQ down 1.73% AND the Sox pacing that decline down 1.71% but the semi equipment makers showing relative strength? But here's the real kicker: NVLS, AMAT, and LRCX are ALL down EXACTLY 0.47%, I mean all of them down the exact same percentage to the hundredth on my quote screen. Must be program trading? Yea, I know, they greatly underperformed the market on Friday so its not that significant that they are outperforming today, but I just thought it seemed noteworthy.

Also noteworthy is the beating Gold took as if someone was SERIOUS about keeping it below $400. It feel in unison with stocks, from $399.50 to $384.50 in a heartbeat but seems to have recovered much of the loss already in pretty wild trading.

-- posted by MarketVVizard

Top 497. Nov 17, 2003 8:09 PM

» azxcvbnm - Re: Semi Equipment Manufacturers -- Gold

In response to message posted by MarketVVizard:

I also find it ridiculous that gold traded at $399.90, but couldn't break $400. But if fundamentals hold true, then it's only a matter of time before it breaks $400. But $800 as some people are predicting? Get out of here!

-- posted by azxcvbnm

Top 498. Nov 18, 2003 8:33 AM

» MarketVVizard - Thoughts...

Well, it looks like gold is making another charge at $400 today. I think it will break 400 this week.

My favorite volume indicator is looking ominous:
<img src="http://tal.marketgauge.com/dvmgpro/chart...">

That said though, I have a very bad vibe about this market right now. Something feels different even though I can't pin point it. This does not seem like the time to "buy dips". Then again, if you have been a dip buyer all year, unlike me you have been right smile Not to mention the ridiculously low probability of me actually calling the 2003 market top to the exact day...

-- posted by MarketVVizard