MarketVVizard's Market Thoughts

Top 450. Nov 3, 2003 12:56 PM

» Kirk - John Hussman on CNBC shortly

.
Money Honey MariaB to interview him.
Says he beat the S&P by 30% the past few yrs.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 451. Nov 3, 2003 2:45 PM

» Normxxx - Re: John Hussman on CNBC shortly

In response to message posted by Kirk:

See HSGFX.

Note the lack of negative volatility! Especially in '01 and '02. (Fund is about 3 years old.)

-- posted by Normxxx

Top 452. Nov 3, 2003 8:39 PM

» MarketVVizard - Re: NVLS Closing on $44 -- : Re: Geart Move!

In response to message posted by Jas_Jain:

Jas, you are early. But good luck. NVLS looks like its going higher.

p.s. Just curious -- what broker do you use? Many do not even allow the sale of naked calls. I wouldn't tie my money up for 14 months for a return I could get in 3 months with about as much risk (short the parabolic top when the bears have thrown in the towel and sell at/out the money puts +3 months, I can almost guarantee you will make more money in less time).

-- posted by MarketVVizard

Top 453. Nov 4, 2003 6:19 AM

» Jas_Jain - Re: Re: NVLS Closing on $44 -- : Re: Geart Move!

In response to message posted by MarketVVizard:

"Jas, you are early. But good luck. NVLS looks like its going higher. p.s. Just curious -- what broker do you use? Many do not even allow the sale of naked calls."

Yes, I am ALWAYS early; it is my trade mark. The pain comes when I am too early, as in Internuts. Usually, when I get lucky the stock goes up ONLY 10-20%. So, that is my hope that NVLS goes up only 15% near-term.

My broker is BrownCo (owned by JP Morgan Chase). One has to have several years of experience in options before they authorize naked options.

For the rest of your comments, it is time to move this to my thread with discussion on options. Please check the reply there.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

Top 454. Nov 4, 2003 6:49 AM

» MarketVVizard - Re: Re: Re: NVLS Closing on $44 -- : Re: Geart Move!

In response to message posted by Jas_Jain:

Well, for what its worth, NVLS DID sort of go parabolic yesterday on higher than average volume. Also, Put/Call ratio is lower that it has been lately. That said, there are still to many bears jumping on every rally. Not a good sign. I'm having to seriously restrain myself from shorting NVLS at $44, I think its a decent entry. But until everything aligns, I can't do it. NVLS could hit $50 by end of month. I think you will be safe holding those calls, I just think you could do better.

I don't have a link to your disscussion group. But my thoughts are that the most money to be made selling options is in the last 3 weeks. You can sit on those leaps for 6-8 months and they may not do anything. That is a waste of time and money in my view. You can make much more with probably about as much risk and much less time commitment by selling premium in peak decay. I've done this many times this year, successfully, with NVLS.

-- posted by MarketVVizard

Top 455. Nov 4, 2003 7:06 AM

» MarketVVizard - NVLS

I should add that the BIGGEST reason to short NVLS is that Jim ("rear view") Cramer came out yesterday saying the longs can't lose! smile

Bulls' Semi Equip Dream Likely to Come True
Monday November 3, 12:52 pm ET

By James J. Cramer,

Semiconductor equipment stocks now are telegraphing a gigantic leap in earnings. For those of you who are betting against this move, I have some really horrible news: Nothing will come out between now and year-end to refute the bull case.

Sometimes you get one of these moments where the bulls can spin fantasies and they can't be denied. For example, there is no doubt that if there is a big uptick in orders for the KLA-Tencors (NasdaqNM:KLAC - News) and the Novelluses (NasdaqNM:NVLS - News), they will see a surge in gross margins and a surge in earnings.

______________________________________
AND they are out pumping again today!

RealCommentary from TheStreet.com
Bears Are Running Out Of Arguments
Monday November 3, 5:46 pm ET

By Aaron L. Task, Senior Writer

Monday's session notched further degradation of the skeptics' arsenal, as a combination of fundamental factors helped push major averages to new closing highs for the cycle.

One by one, bearish concerns have fallen by the wayside in the past 13 months, whether they're about the invasion of Iraq, the threat of dollar weakness, valuations, the economy's tepidity and rising unemployment, or burdensome debt across U.S. society.

_____________________________________________

Still... doesn't seem like a significant top yet (?)
My prediction of a Sept-Nov crash was obviously wrong. I should have paid more attention to the presidential cycle. I know I posted this before (a LONG time ago). I'm an even BIGGER believer now smile

This needs updating but you get the point:
<img src="http://www.creationfaq.net/VViz/4YearCycleChart.gif" alt="Click to Enlarge" width=520>

I believe the two years after the election (or should I say RE-election) are going to be VERY ugly.

-- posted by MarketVVizard

Top 456. Nov 4, 2003 7:34 AM

» MarketVVizard - Layoffs revisited

This JUST out:
10:00am 11/04/03
U.S. October layoffs surge 125%, Challenger says By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Layoff announcements from U.S. companies more than doubled in October to 171,874, the highest in a year, according to the monthly tally released Tuesday by outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas. October is typically the largest month for layoff notices, as companies slash costs at the end of the fiscal year. The Challenger survey is not adjusted for seasonal factors. Layoff announcements had fallen for three months in a row before October's 125 percent increase. In October, the auto industry sacked 28,363 workers, followed by 21,169 in the retail sector. Telecommunications companies cut 21,030. So far in 2003, 1.04 million job reductions have been announced.

Hmmmm 7.2% GDP growth = rear view
125% surge in layoff annoucements going into holiday season = future

-- posted by MarketVVizard

http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

Top 457. Nov 4, 2003 10:28 AM

» Jas_Jain - Re: Re: Re: Re: NVLS Closing on $44 -- : Re: Geart Move!

In response to message posted by MarketVVizard:

"I don't have a link to your disscussion group."

It is Jas Jain's Market Thoughts. Can't be that hard to find. I have replied to your comments. Here is the link:

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

Top 458. Nov 5, 2003 8:01 AM

» MarketVVizard - Sentiment

Obviously I hear the bear case loud and clear, just can't short until sentiment changes. I continue to evaluate this daily. There are too many bears still out there. Take the Yahoo message board for NVLS as an example. I just took a look at the most recent page of posts. Of these, there are 12 SELL or STRONG SELL posts to just ONE Strong Buy post. Upon closer examination the one "strong buy" post is actually from a short:

"all institutions are long
all retail is long
all funds are long
all analyst are long

we need new buyers---come on buy now
its fun "

Can we go substantially lower under these conditions??? Maybe (NVLS IS already $1 off its high of $45.10 today), but not likely. NVLS has been rallying strong under heavier than average volume as the shorts pile on. If this is its top, it will be the first time I have observed NVLS top with bears all over it.

-- posted by MarketVVizard