Bill Fleckenstein : Re: Says Short AMAT, DELL, IBM, KLAC & LLTC

» Kirk - Re: Says Short AMAT, DELL, IBM, KLAC & LLTC

A year ago Bill Fleckenstein was advocating shorting these stocks here.

Many of these I like and own myself. Lets see how well he has done.
[Kirk Comment: Prices in blue are as of 11/10/03 at times indicated]

Fleck's Short List from that article:
Date: November 29, 2002

APPLIED MATERIALS
NASDAQ AMAT
Fair Value $6
Selling At $14
[Kirk Comment: AMAT 24.86 11:34AM ET ]

DELL COMPUTER
NASDAQ DELL
Fair Value $12
Selling At $29
[Kirk Comment: DELL 35.57 11:34AM ET ]

IBM
NYSE IBM
Fair Value $42
Selling At $74
[Kirk Comment: IBM 90.07 11:29AM ET ]

INTEL
NASDAQ INTC
Fair Value $8
Selling At $16
[Kirk Comment: INTC 33.82 11:34AM ET]

KLA TENCOR
NASDAQ KLAC
Fair Value $12
Selling At $34
[Kirk Comment: KLAC 58.78 11:34AM ET]

LINEAR TECHNOLOGY
NASDAQ LLTC
Fair Value $14
Selling At $28.50
[Kirk Comment: LLTC 43.07 11:34AM ET]

I wonder if the guy covered his shorts. Was he is so certain he is right that he has lost over 100% on some of his shorts that have doubled?

Year-to-date:
 
  Date       Kirk    S&P500   Delta
2003 YTD    +73.7%    21.4%   52.2%  as of 11/08/2003 
 

Total Return:
                                 Kirk   S&P500+  NASDAQ 
4.75+ Yrs 12/31/98 to 11/08/03  166.3%  ( 8.3%) (10.1%)
Annualized Annual Return         22.3%  ( 1.8%) ( 2.2%) 
 
  
9/30/98 Inception Value:   $100,000
9/30/03 5 yrs later value: $345,395 up 245.4%
S&P500 between 9/30/98 and 9/30/03: up   4.6%
With dividends reinvested. All Numbers unaudited. 
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-- posted by Kirk