Bob Prechter: Bob Prechter says . . .
- Normxxx
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» Normxxx - Bob Prechter says . . .
Another bear digs in -- deep
By Peter Brimelow, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:42 AM ET Oct. 22, 2003
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Double or quits? Elliott Wave exponent Bob Prechter has just emitted his most bearish growl in years.
That's saying a lot, because Prechter has been bearish since before (note: before) the 1987 Crash.
Of course that served him well in the post-millennium break. And in fact, the Hulbert Financial Digest reports that Prechter's Elliott Wave Financial Forecaster's timing has beaten the stock market, when adjusted for risk, over the entire 23 years that HFD has been following it.
But you have to wonder, as I did in my June 30 column, if Prechter's bearishness is now permanent.
The stock market, somewhat painfully, has climbed several hundred points since then.
Prechter, however, is totally unimpressed. In a just-issued "Interim Report" of his big-think, no-portfolio Elliott Wave Theorist service, he says:
"Understand that I am not nervously bearish or on the fence. I am all-out, no-holds-barred, shout-from-the-rooftops, yet-another-opportunity-of-a-lifetime bearish. Wave patterns, cycles and technical indicators have developed into an astonishingly one-sided message...
"After this bear market is finally over, almost no one will remember the Pollyanna psychology that existed in the summer of 2000, the spring of 2002, the spring of 2002, or the fall of 2003. The S&P and Nasdaq will look like one big slide with a few rallies along the way, and historians will probably not even imagine that investors could have been stark raving bullish during any one of them."
These investment advisors are always so cautious and circumspect! Allow me to interpret: Prechter is trying to say he's B-E-A-R-I-S-H.
[Normxxx here:] Of course, I always thought Elliot Wave interpretation was a lot like Rorchacht Test interpretation; That is, they say more about the analyst than about the thing (market or patient) analyzed.
-- posted by Normxxx
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