Bob Prechter

Top 12. Mar 12, 2003 8:58 AM

» ap305 - Re: Re: Dissing the Elliot Waver

In response to message posted by Kirk:

Just out of curiosity, did he also write several very convincing articles durring the 1990's calling for a reversal?

The 1990's was a decade in which I was not an EWT subscriber, although I had a great experience with RP in the 1980's and again since mid-2001. The December 1999 issue somethng I came across on my own, so I do not know if he was making that particular case every month for a decade. But based on the analysis in that Dec '99 issue, certain levels and patterns could not have existed prior to the last quarter of 1999. Prechter has a new book out discussing how he messed up in the bubble years, may be a worthwhile read. Don't forget, B-man hated the Internet stocks all the way from single digits to triple digits and back down to single digits again. Of couse he just remembers the last part of that round trip. As you may recall, he and I went at it a few times about it on SI.....those were the days, eh?

-- posted by ap305

Top 13. Mar 12, 2003 10:42 AM

» Kirk - Re: Re: Re: Dissing the Elliot Waver

In response to message posted by ap305:

As you may recall, he and I went at it a few times about it on SI.....those were the days, eh?

Yes, and I remember you made a good deal more than the B-man Don Lane from what I remember. Also, if you went short in 1999, congratulations!

Do you still hold QCOM?
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/...

My best move was NOT buying it on weakness in 2000 and 2001 when some suggested it. Too bad I lost some in WCOM... smile

-- posted by Kirk

Top 14. Mar 12, 2003 11:02 AM

» ap305 - Re: Re: Re: Re: Dissing the Elliot Waver

In response to message posted by Kirk:

if you went short in 1999, congratulations

Nope, I stayed net long well into 2000, violating every TA rule in the book..."I knew better".

Do you still hold QCOM?

Only a small core position left of what was purchased in 1997-8, although still a five-bagger.

-- posted by ap305

Top 15. Apr 24, 2003 9:53 AM

» PubMan - Re: Dissing the Elliot Waver

In response to message posted by Kirk:

Found both your post and Jack's thoughts on Prechter VERY interesting. The problem with Elliot Waves is that they are open to all sorts of personal intepretation. If you have the wave count wrong, you frequently wind up 180 degrees from where you ought to be. If you have the direction right, but not the actual strength (or subwave as Prechter calls it) you are still upside down. Personally, that's why I like fractals. You don't have to count the waves and you don't even have to pick a direction. I've been trading for over 10 years and using fractals for the last 4 with great sucess. It's not a do-all end-all answer, but adds huge strength to the analytical perspective. - Cheers! - Ian

-- posted by PubMan

Top 16. Oct 23, 2003 7:17 AM

» Kirk - Bullish for the 1987 Crash

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To:da_cheif who wrote (11405)
From: Allan P. Harris Thursday, Oct 23, 2003 7:54 AM
View Replies (1) | Respond to 11416 of 11421
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk...

During the days and weeks prior to the 87 crash, I was practicing law in Atlanta, but an avid consumer of Prechter's $30/minute call-in service. The week of October 12, I had tripled my money in puts, recommended by the service. On Friday, October 16, about 1PM, I called the service and was told in no uncertain terms to close out all puts and go Long, if that is, I could get through to my broker. It's wasn't Prechter through, one of his lieutanents, who gave me that sage advice. So what would have been a fortune in OEX puts got sold, but I didn't have the conjones to buy calls in the face of the Friday decline. I'll never forget that day, it cost me five more years of being a lawyer.

To:Allan P. Harris who wrote (11416)
From: Dick Weigel Thursday, Oct 23, 2003 8:55 AM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 11421

Good one Allan. Our calls on October 16, 1987 must have been minutes apart (same advice given of course). I don't remember him being that negative in his letter prior to the sixteenth, though. I used the hot line call that day just to confirm the fact that he had definitely lost his touch.

To:Dick Weigel who wrote (11417)
From: Allan P. Harris Thursday, Oct 23, 2003 9:15 AM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 11421

Dick, the way their call-in service worked at that time, you got the opinion of whoever answered your call, not necessarily Prechter himself. Still, whenever I hear claims that they were not Long into the '87 crash, I know they are lying. Prechter himself may have changed his mind from Long to Short on sometime that Friday, but as of early afternoon October 16, 1987, it wasn't being communicated to us paying customers. They were calling for a cycle bottom, that time, that day, that instant. I'll never forget it.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 17. Oct 23, 2003 9:16 AM

» Normxxx - Bob Prechter says . . .

full text

Another bear digs in -- deep

By Peter Brimelow, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:42 AM ET Oct. 22, 2003

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Double or quits? Elliott Wave exponent Bob Prechter has just emitted his most bearish growl in years.

That's saying a lot, because Prechter has been bearish since before (note: before) the 1987 Crash.

Of course that served him well in the post-millennium break. And in fact, the Hulbert Financial Digest reports that Prechter's Elliott Wave Financial Forecaster's timing has beaten the stock market, when adjusted for risk, over the entire 23 years that HFD has been following it.

But you have to wonder, as I did in my June 30 column, if Prechter's bearishness is now permanent.

The stock market, somewhat painfully, has climbed several hundred points since then.

Prechter, however, is totally unimpressed. In a just-issued "Interim Report" of his big-think, no-portfolio Elliott Wave Theorist service, he says:

"Understand that I am not nervously bearish or on the fence. I am all-out, no-holds-barred, shout-from-the-rooftops, yet-another-opportunity-of-a-lifetime bearish. Wave patterns, cycles and technical indicators have developed into an astonishingly one-sided message...

"After this bear market is finally over, almost no one will remember the Pollyanna psychology that existed in the summer of 2000, the spring of 2002, the spring of 2002, or the fall of 2003. The S&P and Nasdaq will look like one big slide with a few rallies along the way, and historians will probably not even imagine that investors could have been stark raving bullish during any one of them."

These investment advisors are always so cautious and circumspect! Allow me to interpret: Prechter is trying to say he's B-E-A-R-I-S-H.

[Normxxx here:] Of course, I always thought Elliot Wave interpretation was a lot like Rorchacht Test interpretation; That is, they say more about the analyst than about the thing (market or patient) analyzed.

-- posted by Normxxx

Top 18. Nov 4, 2003 9:12 AM

» Kirk - April 2003: "DOW below 4,000 by end 2003"

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Robert Prechter - DOW below 4,000 by end 2003
April 2003 Blast from the past

Courtesy Forbes-
http://www.forbes.com/2003/04/09/cz_jd_0...

Robert Prechter, editor of the Elliott Wave Theorist, is about as bearish as they come (as you might detect from the title of his 2002 book, Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression). Prechter views the stock market as a meter of mass psychology and social mood that fluctuates in a series of (Elliott) waves found throughout nature. The primary trend in stocks since January 2000 reflects anger, fear, negativity and social polarization, but occasionally yields to brief periods of optimism, such as the rally in stocks that began a week before the war.

"Everything is wrong with this market--volume is weak, the breadth is poor, and optimism is way too high for this to be a bear market bottom," says Prechter, who calls for the Dow to finish the year below 4,000. "Stay safe above all and keep your powder dry, so you can take advantage when stocks rally from much lower levels," advises Prechter. His service recommends shorting Bank of America (nyse: BAC - news - people ) and Symantec (nasdaq: SYMC - news - people ), as well as buying Rydex Ursa ( RYURX) or Tempest ( RYTPX) --both of which short stocks in the S&P 500.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 19. Nov 4, 2003 1:07 PM

» axolotl - Re: April 2003: "DOW below 4,000 by end 2003"

I am confident in predicting that the DOW will not see 4000 by the end of the year - anyone want to wager - how about it Prechter? I notice that the Prudent Speculator is up about 65% ytd. almost as much as Kirk.

-- posted by axolotl

Top 20. Oct 20, 2005 2:10 PM

» JackSwanson - MARKET TO CRASH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Recently, I noted that Robert Prechter, the Gainesville, Ga.-based
Elliott
From Marketwatch.

Wave Financial Forecaster was arguing that the ow Industrials' chart action was making a classic bearish "diamond" and that a break below 10,300
would be very bad news -- that is, the blue-chip barometer would be poised to head several thousand points lower.

-- posted by JackSwanson