Moneytalk Bob Brinker Summaries - Information ONLY

Top 77. Jan 17, 1999 4:33 PM

» RhyneN - Bob's opening remarks on 1/16 - did anyone hear them?

I like to listen to Bob's initial remarks. I missed it. Could anyone post a brief summary?
Thanks!!!

-- posted by RhyneN

Top 78. Jan 17, 1999 5:55 PM

» ron - Bob's opening remarks

Rhyne, Bob was adios this weekend. Flanagan replaced him. I'm with you though when BB opens up his show I listen even closer than usual. Ron

-- posted by ron

Top 79. Jan 19, 1999 7:34 PM

» Paul_A14 - By-Pass Will ??

I recall BB commenting on what I believe was termed a By-Pass Will last month. BB indicated it was a must/no-brainer for all Moneytalk listeners. Can anyone comment on this? What is it? Why is it a must? I caught it in the middle of the conversation.

Thanks,
Paul_A14

-- posted by Paul_A14

Top 80. Jan 19, 1999 11:36 PM

» Jaybird248 - Bypass Trust

This was probably about a bypass trust, which is a way to leave money to a spouse, and then on his/her passing, have it go to designated heirs without excessive taxation.

It's needed only in large estates. A CPA can give details.

-- posted by Jaybird248

Top 81. Jan 20, 1999 8:02 AM

» RuthM - Bypass Trust

Bypass trusts are used to shelter capital from estate taxes. As you may know, estate taxes are incredibly high. If your estate is worth more that $650,000 (including life insurance!) then you need to do estate tax planning. Read up on it, consult a financial planner, even a lawyer if necessary! Many people in the Silicon Valley are worth more than they think when life insurance is added to the pot. If you're married, you can leave everything "tax-free" to your spouse, but that's not the best idea. Better to use up your one-time exemption. Seriously folks, this is important stuff to learn about if you're worth more than $650,000.

The threshold is being raised to $1,000,000 gradually, but don't rely on future numbers.

-- posted by RuthM

Top 82. Jan 23, 1999 6:45 PM

» SteveT - Saturday Jan. 23,1999

:10 Bob opened talking about what he called speculators or gamblers in the Internet sector and how they must be wondering when the night mare will end. He mentioned talking about the absurd valuations 2 weekends ago and how it was reminiscent of tulip mania. Some stock mentioned were amazon.com, ebay, Yahoo, broadcast.com. An article in the Jan. 25th issue of Barron’s concerning the sector was mentioned. Bob also remembered the caller two weeks ago chastising him for talking down Internet stocks.

:21 Caller brought up the Mary Meeker article two weeks ago and was in the sector and thanked Bob for convincing him to take profits. Was wondering if the the market will show some disfavor to the tech sector, Semi Conductor Cap equip particular, and what sector may be better area to focus on. Bob said about 2 weeks ago the 10 day put/ call ratio indicated the market was ripe for profit taking after the quick run up we have experienced over the last 3 months. Talked about the Large Cap semi Cap equip Companies and they would not be exempt from profit taking, we could see some relief rallies. We could see a correction of up to 10% or maybe into the mid teens % correction. Thought we could see a buying opportunity at S&P 500 of 1120 followed by new highs in 1999. Reminded how 2 weeks ago told everyone to get allocation in line with comfortable sleeping levels and then was not a time to over invest. Thinks the tech sector is ripe for a good whacking.

:32 Bob advertised the 13th anniversary of Money Talk on Super Bowl Sunday and thanked the Owners for moving the Kick off so as not to conflict with the program. Also reviewed IBM ‘s profit report that came out this week.

:35 Caller asked why Dollar Cost average? Bob answered. Then caller asked about Guinness Wired Fund and if it would be a substitute for the S&P 500? Bob said No it was not diversified.

:42 Bob again mentioned IBM and how they beat estimates by.02 and they gained 76% in 1998. Also thought the Internet correction was profit taking. Caller asked if the trade in balance would cause interest rates to rise? Bob thinks low inflation is keeping interest rates under control. Caller asked about Bull Bear ratio? Bob said he uses the investor intelligence survey which is currently at 67.5% and 70 was a caution. Also bob talked a little more about the 10 day put/ call ratio. Bob thinks the market got ahead of it self and saw a lot of volatility and speculation. We could see a correction of 10% or a little more is not out of the question. Bob does not see it going back to levels of last summer, 950 in the S&P. Last summer we had a lot of churning from April to July factors like Russia, Long Term Capital management, and the far East made a normal correction worse. Now we are just off new highs we have seen some speculating and Bob expects and correction to be contained but we could see some profit taking in stocks that have had major runs recently.

:54Bob talked of last summer warning about Coke and it’s high P/E. Now estimates on earnings are being lowered and it is off 31% from it’s highs. Caller asked about 20 year zero treasury he bought 10 years ago in a deferred account? Bob said he also owned that same investment and said it was up to him to keep or sell and put in a GNMA fund.

1:10Bob opened hour 2 reviewing the Dow down 2.4 %for the week despite the inflow of money the first of the year. Also mention was made of Merck delaying tests of a new drug for treatment of depression and a new drug for arthritis coming out the second half of the year. Many patents Merck has will be running out soon and they need new drugs to replace lost income. See article in Jan. 25 Barron’s. Bob also stated the outlook for Tobacco stocks is not good after the President’s State of the Union speech and the possibility of the Federal Government suit against the industry.

1:17 Caller asked about Luccent. Bob said Hold. Same caller asked about the Air touch Vodaphone merger? Bob said he didn’t have much choice but to take the deal offered.

1:19 caller asked about the Euro and what it means to US investors? Bob is Bullish and thinks it will take some pressure off the US dollar.

1:23 Caller stated she now knows to stay away from sector funds but bought a Energy sector fund (Vanguard) 18 months ago. Was wondering how to decide to sell at a loss or wait for to come back? Bob thought best to make a side way move to VTSMX and take the tax loss. Bob said some time a stock don’t work out and you have a loss but this is not acceptable in Funds.

1:32 Caller asked about changing allocation now if we are expecting a 15 % correction, thinking he could sell now and buy back later at lower levels. Bob said NO it is impossible to be that exact. None of this is guaranteed. The 1120 is only for new money, we could challenge 10,000 in the Dow this year. We are in a Bull market don’t dance in and out was Bob’s advise.

1:40 Caller asked Bob to comment on an advertisement for a school for Day Traders? Bob thinks it is a joke and at the end of the day traders usually show a loss. Caller asked if the Large Cap tech stocks like NVLS and TER had anything left? Bob said they started to correct and may continue. The NASDAQ is up 6% YTD which could indicate there are still profits to be taken.

1:43 Caller asked about MSFT and AOL being part of the tech correction? Bob said hold MSFT and AOL was vulnerable to profit taking. Caller asked about AOL as a long term holding? Bob said it was hard to analyze and had no comment

1:51 A retired caller asked about buying back in to equities that he sold last fall when the Dow was at 8000 should he wait for a buying op or DCA? Bob hesitated to recommend being in the market but suggested a DCA approach.

1:56 Caller asked about Schwab Market Manager Fund? Bob said check the performance history and compare to a suitable benchmark or buy the Schwab 1000 and some GNMAs and make your own balanced fund.

2:10 Bob opened the last hour stating he was glad he missed the State of the Union speech, He was at a hockey game with his Son and managed to get in a couple rounds of golf in while in Phoenix. Bob thought most of the speech was harmless thinks going after tobacco is OK, but wonders why not use 100% of "the surplus" to bailout Social Security? Mention was made of several earnings releases this week, the effort to dismiss the impeachment, and investors love gridlock.

2:19 Caller asked why Bonds at age 40? Bob said it was up to him could be 100 % in equities at 40. There is no guarantee the last 17 years will be repeated the next 17.

2:22 Caller had a Broker who with out her permission bought a precious metal fund that is down 80%. Bob said she had a serious problem and recommended asking why did you do this to me. The same Broker is now trying to sell her LU MSFT and CSCO. Bob asked why listen to some one who did what he did.

2:26 A retired man asked about how to find info on Dental and review his health insurance? Bob said not to buy dental but take advantage of it at work and failed to answer his health insurance question.

2:32 An insurance broker was trying to sell an "Equity Index Annuity" Bob asked if it was one of them deals were you get the returns on a S&P index while the insurance company keeps the dividends. The caller said yes. Bob said forget about it.

2:35 Caller asked about the Vanguard Index 500 vs. The Index Growth differences? The growth has had higher returns. Bob is not so sure that will continue. It may be the trend is changing, YTD the Index Value is ahead of Growth. Bob likes the 500 as he said keep it simple don’t try to get to cute.

2:40 Caller asked which put / call ratio he used? CBOE

2:43 Caller editorialized on the "Budget surplus" and asked why not put it all to debt service. Bob agreed and said with out the excess Social Security collections we would have no "surplus" and by putting 60% to save social Security they will spend 40% and said they should not take the 40% to use as a tax cut either.

2:50 caller asked about Nuveen e-commerce fund? And Van Kampen Internet fund bought recently and thought they would sky rocket? Bob said oh my. He had no recommendation but said be prepared for a rough ride. Offered Good luck.

2:52 Caller asked about Science and tech fund Bob previously recommended (Price funds) he did not sell when Bob put out the sell, has done well though be it volatile. Bob said he could hold it if he is willing to accept the volatility since he expecting new highs in the Indices this year. Caller asked about real estate and how to figure that in your allocation? Bob said to count it as an asset but not as a profit center. Some people use it as a proxy for Bonds if you want to be a landlord.

2:55 Bob closed by saying we may be in a correction and see some relief rallies and are vulnerable to some profit taking. That’s all she wrote.

-- posted by SteveT

Top 83. Jan 23, 1999 7:07 PM

» Karin - Steve

Thank you Steve for your great summary again.
Wonderful job!

-- posted by Karin