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Moneytalk Bob Brinker Summaries - Information ONLY
This archived discussion is "read only". « Previous 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 Next » » Kirk - 3/12/03 Mark Hulbert on Bob Brinker Buy Signal .http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.as... Interpreting Brinker's latest signal That much is not in dispute. But almost everything else about Brinker, including how you should react to his buy signal, turns out to be hotly debated. I nevertheless will try to review the facts as I see them. In January 2000, after having been fully invested in stocks since early 1991, Brinker issued a sell signal on the stock market. He moved 60 percent of his aggressive stock model portfolio into cash, immunizing subscribers from much of the losses they otherwise would have incurred in the bear market that began in March of that year. Brinker's star was definitely shining brightly as the bear market gathered steam. Then came October 2000, when Brinker sent out a special bulletin to subscribers predicting that a significant bear-market rally was imminent. He recommended that subscribers take a significant chunk of the cash they had raised in January and buy the QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 Trust (QQQ: news, chart, profile). At the time, it was trading around $80. In the next regular issue of his newsletter, his November 2000 issue, Brinker chose not to make this QQQ trade formally a part of his model portfolios. However, he continued to forecast a bear market rally and to recommend that subscribers hold onto the QQQ. Brinker was still forecasting such a rally and recommending this QQQ trade when he issued his buy signal on Tuesday, when the QQQ was trading below $24 per share. A mixed record, to say the least. Whole chat rooms are now dedicated to debating all aspects of Brinker's recent record, and passions are running high. One group that feels particularly strongly about Brinker includes those who fell in love with him after his well-timed January 2000 sell signal and who then bet the ranch on his poorly-timed October 2000 QQQ trade. Many investors also feel that Brinker has never properly acknowledged how unprofitable that QQQ trade has been. Indeed, as several investors e-mailed me Tuesday night to point out, Brinker made no mention of the trade in his Tuesday afternoon bulletin to subscribers reporting his new buy signal.
What other light can the HFD shed on Brinker's record? One way is by reviewing previous buy and sell signals that Brinker issued. For example, over the past 15 years Brinker has issued one other sell signal and one other buy signal. One was a huge success, and the other was not. The sell signal came in January 1988, two and one-half months after the 1987 Crash. Instead of dropping in the wake of that sell signal, however, the stock market rallied. Brinker did not return to a fully invested posture until issuing a January 1991 buy signal, just prior to that year's Gulf War. That was the signal that didn't get reversed until Brinker's January 2000 sell signal, and was very successful indeed. Here is how I sum up Brinker's market timing record over the 15 years the Hulbert Financial Digest has tracked it: By this count, Brinker's timing signals have been slightly more successful than not, though not by a lot. See profile summary. [Kirk Comment: Mark is politely saying a coin flip gives the same results. Well worth clicking his profile summary.] What does all this mean for how you should react to Brinker's latest buy signal? I'll leave that for you to decide. Voice your opinion. For more information or to subscribe to the Hulbert Financial Digest, click here. Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980. -- posted by Kirk » Kirk - 3/12/03 Aaron Task On Brinker .Full Article http://www.thestreet.com/markets/aaronta... Finally, as alluded to here last night and later confirmed in RealMoney.com's Columnist Conversation, Bob Brinker, of Marketimer, reported Tuesday his "long-term stock market timing model has returned to bullish territory for the first time since January 2000." "Although additional minor stock market weakness is possible, we believe the market has reached the vicinity of a major cyclical bear market bottom," Brinker wrote in a bulletin to subscribers. He recommended a 100% fully invested position in equity portfolios, and predicted at least 25% gains for the S&P 500 and "significantly greater" gains for the Comp in the next one to three years. Brinker is certainly a controversial figure. Having written about it at the time, I certainly recall his short-term bullish call on the Nasdaq 100 Unit Trust in October 2000, which he reiterated in January 2001. Despite the QQQ's dismal performance, Brinker hasn't rescinded that call, to date, according to longtime Brinker watchers and subscribers. The market-timer and radio personality could not be reached for comment. Clearly Brinker isn't infallible. Then again, who is? -- posted by Kirk » Kirk - Effect of QQQ advice on Brinker's Model portfolios .I just completed a short "paper" where I added the effects of Brinker's QQQ advice on his model portfolios. The conclusion is favorable to Brinker so hats off for adding value! but... and this is a huge but... HAME ON YOU BOB BRINKER for not including the QQQs in your model portfolios when bought high but then adding them when bought after a 71% correction!!! Not even the counter trend rally excuse is valid as he is NOW calling for an S&P500 counter trend rally of 25% or more over a period of up to 3 years. Anyway, here is a URL to my study where I calculate how his portfolios did with QQQs added as given in his first special bulletin. Summary: Since 1/1/00, Brinker's model portfolio #1 with QQQ applied lost 30.4% while the S&P500 lost 42.8% (not counting dividends). With dividends applied, I think Brinker's P1 beat the S&P500 by about 10% which is a good result. Even if a P1 person bought the 5% in TEFQX as recommended by Bob Brinker which lost about 90%, they would still be ahead of the S&P500 by 5% or so. No matter how you slice it, Brinker did well compared to the S&P500 between 1/1/00 and 3/11/03 when he was not 100% invested, just not as well as he advertises.
-- posted by Kirk » Kirk - DON’T GET BRINKER’D !!! in the "land of dissapating mass" .Damon Vickers on Brinker BUY signal. Cute graphic.... http://www.damonvickers.com/news.asp?id=... <img height=112 alt="Ocean Liner sinking" src="http://www.damonvickers.com/images/uploa..." align=left width=125 vspace=10 border=0> DON’T GET BRINKER’D !!! in the "land of dissapating mass" By: Damon Vickers I have to say I was surprised when I heard that Bob Brinker had put out a buy recommendation on the entire market or to put another way his newsletters model portfolios are now 100 percent invested…. October 2000 Bob Brinker sent out a special bulletin to subscribers predicting that a significant bear market rally was imminent… he recommended that subscribers take a significant chunk of the cash they had raised in January and buy the QQQ’s . At that time, they were trading around $80. In the next regular issue of his newsletter, his November 2000 issue, Brinker chose not to make this QQQ trade formally a part of his model portfolios. However, he continued to forecast a bear market rally and to recommend that subscribers hold onto the QQQ. Brinker was still forecasting such a rally and recommending this QQQ trade when he issued his buy signal on Tuesday, when the QQQ was trading below $24 per share. who is Bob Brinker? Bob Brinker is a nationally syndicated financial talk show host, who does a weekend radio show Saturday and Sunday… (now you might know why I want to move to weekends…) he is heard on over 200 stations… he is syndicated by ABC networks… I was offered the designated fill in spot for him some 2 years ago, I declined as they wanted me to discontinue my radio program. To the best of my knowledge Bob Brinker and myself are the only two financial talk show hosts, and financial types that accurately called the top of the market in 2000. Bob Brinker and I also made the same call on the QQQ’s, however I reversed taking a 10. point loss… and from what we all know Bob stayed long, or better put listeners and subscribers… the “horror”, -80-24 is a mighty big loss. when I was thinking about writing this piece, what came to mind was the movie “kingpin”.. This is the story of Roy Munson , great bowler who winds up getting conned by Bill Murphy, gets his hand chopped off… its hilarious… if such a thing could be funny. Anyway Roy Munson has such terrible luck , that in the movie they use the term being “Munsoned” like as in really bad…. Inevitably Roy wins the girl, beats Bill Murphy and supposedly they all live happily ever after… A number of strategists/financial talkshow hosts/mutual fund managers and assorted financial personalities are trying to make a career by calling “the bottom”, they may just bet their career in the process. And maybe not…??? Abby Joseph Cohen, Joseph , Hugh Johnson, etc etc Ned Riley, and an assortment of other fools have been calling a bottom for three years, they are still working… It’s very tempting to call a bottom in a decline, but calling a bottom in a decline is as insane as calling a top in an advance… corpses are piled high of those who have tried and failed… Maybe we can throw Bob Brinker on the pile… I would love his 4-7 weekend timeslot… good luck Bob, but my guess is you will be wrong… DON’T GET BRINKER’D !!! -- posted by Kirk » johnl30 - Re: DON’T GET BRINKER’D !!! in the "land of dissapating mass" In response to message posted by Kirk:I do not see why anyone would need to rush to buy based on 3 market timer buy signals. Why not wait at least until the Iraq war starts, (or doesn't)? There should be plenty of time to get in if this call has any real substance.
-- posted by johnl30 » SteveT - 3-15-03 radio summary I did listen to the show yesterday closer than I have in a good long while. I did agree with Bob 100% on treatment of France. I hope Lance Armstrong boycotts the Tour de France this year, that would be a slap in the face to them. I am not going to provide any links and very few comments but this is what I got out of the Saturday March 15, 2003 show.Bob opened talking about the topic on all Moneytalk regulars’ minds. Long pause. Bob said the work he does is the most difficult challenge there is. Most won’t accept the challenge of anticipatory stock market timing. He defined it as attempting to look into the future. He went on to say nobody has a crystal ball, and everyone knows that and those that claim to are only fooling only themselves. Bob explained that major market bottom involve a process as do tops. In the case of this bottom it has taken a very long time. The first requirement for a bottom is establishing the area of a bottom so we have something to build on. This will allow a major advance over a cyclical bull of 1-3 years and a gain in the S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 over 25%. Bob has focused on identifying the area of a cyclical bear bottom. From such an area bull markets develop. Some things are always the same in the market. Those being lots of good news at market tops like we had in Jan. 2000, the other being lots of bad news like we have had lately. Bob put extra emphasis on the recent bad news and how investors are focusing on the negative news. This is encouraging to him, saying it always happens that way. Early Tuesday morning Bob issued a special bulletin to subscribers to switch to a fully invested position as his long-term stock market timing model turned positive for the first time since Jan. 2000. As of Tuesday night, when the S&P 500 close at 800 he believes investors have the potential to benefit from a cyclical bull market. That is Bob’s view and he has no crystal ball and he knows that. He always encourages investors to gather as much information as possible. They should consider their own risk tolerances & objectives. He went on to say it is your money and your decision. Bob promised to discuss his future market outlook in the April newsletter and future editions as needed. Caller: was in the process of reallocating and wanted Bob’s opinion on which of his model portfolios to use. Bob said each of us has to make a personal decision based on risk tolerance, objectives, and family concerns. He is 71 and his wife is 60. Bob said in his view that automatically put them in portfolio III. This is no time to be aggressive in or nearing retirement, and that has nothing to do with age. He is not using his investments for income. Bob though that was a mistake and he should spend more. Bob went on to say he should be in portfolio III and not place his critical mass at risk. Retirement is about managing risk and living an enjoyable life style. Caller: asked about the objectives of the active passive portfolio. It is a long-term growth portfolio in line with portfolio II. They both try to grow asset value over time. Neither is looking for investment income. They differ in constitution; the active passive has all U.S. money in an index fund. Index funds have many advantages such as; tax efficient, diversity, and simplicity. The caller is nearing retirement. Bob could not imagine not being in a balanced portfolio, as they have no ability to go backwards. Caller: Is more conservative than portfolio III and might go 40% equity and 60%bonds. Bob complimented him on being prudent and recognizing his risk tolerance and taking action. The caller wanted to know what the short-term effect on the markets would be when we invade Iraq. Bob said he don’t think there is an investor any where that does not know about Saddam and the news has been digested and is priced into the market. Caller: age in his early 70s and is portfolio III and noticed the equities are a little light on dividends, and wondered if it might be better to buy individual stocks with yields in the 3-6% range. Bob said his policy is not to comment on individual stocks on the radio. But said if one wanted to do that do your own due diligence and research. Bob suggested a mix of high quality bonds funds and diverse equity funds such as in portfolio III. Bob likes getting most of your income from bonds/ bond funds. He also likes the idea of spreading out risk and diversity. Caller: has the total bond index in his 457 plan and wonders if that is appropriate. Bob prefers a diverse mix that could include TIPS and GNMAs like in the newsletter. The caller also has a 457 option of a GIC that pays 4.2% for 3 years. Bob said that is a heck of a rate and worth looking at. Bob said U.S. treasuries are very richly priced. Caller: Has $55,000 in gains to try to offset with losses and could carry them forward. Bob said it might be better to sell just enough to off set the gains and hold the rest due to his current market outlook assuming the security has recovery potential. He would also wait until much later in the year to do so. Caller: is 32 years old and has about half his financial assets in non-retirement accounts and wants to get them in line with a model portfolio. He would like to know if he should do it now or wait for a market rally. If the goal is to mirror the performance of a model portfolio then he should get in line with those recommendations now. This should be considered a sideways move. Bob started hour two with some spicy political commentary concerning France. News reports the French are crying about not being invited to the Azores this weekend to discuss Iraq. Bob said TOO BAD!!! What did they expect? They are not wanted or needed. This whole affair has made bob decide to give up or substitute French products. As far as Bob is concerned let the French government know how we feel by letting their products sit on the shelf. Then Bob got on a roll, whipped almost to a frenzy. He said, “Doesn’t your heart bleed”? Bob even thought it would be a good idea to send it all back to France. Caller: bought a condo and took out a 4.75% loan for $400,000. When her previous residence sale closes she will take out $1.2 Million. She wants to know if she should then pay off her loan. Bob said she doesn’t need a mortgage. He would pay it off 8 days a week. Caller: Is 36 and inherited “a good chunk of money” and does not need the money. He would like to invest it in portfolio II. In this call Bob revealed his bulletin was issued in the wee hours of Tuesday morning, 2:00AM Portland Oregon time. Bob said he could also take a look at his active/passive portfolio as it has investment objective in line with portfolio II. It offers tax efficiency, which maybe helpful since it is obvious most of this money will not be able to be invested in a deferred account. It is possible to do it all dealing with one fund family and is as simple as one phone call. Caller: started by saying maybe this is the year to visit Britain and forget France as a vacation destination. Bob thought it a good idea and if anyone is considering a trip to France hoped they would reconsider. What makes it worse in Bob’s view is that France seems to enjoy playing this role. This caller is receiving California retirement system payments and questions the most recent Cost of Living Adjustment. Bob said first you need to determine where the numbers are coming from. You need to know the time frame and what they use as a gauge, is it CPI or maybe the GDP price deflator. Caller: A patriotic owner of 3 Chicken wing joints in the Las Vegas Area is sponsoring a “Flush the French” event and asked Bob if he would like to join in the fun. Bob declined saying he was working tomorrow at that time. Seems the plan involves this guys entire inventory of French goods; water, wine, a Bidet and several sledgehammers. Wish I lived close sounds like a hoot. The locations are in North Las Vega on Craig Road, in Henderson at Eastern & St Rose Dominican Hospital, and Next to the entrance to the Galleria Mall. Caller: brought up the sentiment component of Bob’s “Timing model”. Bob seemed to take over the discussion saying there are complexities and many parts to his model. Some factors are looked at in real time while other are viewed from a historical perspective. The caller wondered if sentiment was bearish enough now. Bob was extremely encouraged by one of his sentiment indicators, without revealing what it was. He only said it is something he has not seen used any place. He did emphasize however it is only one of many data points and the whole process is looked at cumulatively. Any Ideas what this mystery indictor is??? Caller does not have the total stock market index in his 401(k) plan but does have the S&P 500 and the extended market index (which is the rest of the U.S. market not in the S&P 500). He wonders how to allocate his money to mirror the Wilshire 5000. Bob said he would just use the 500 but if he wanted to use the extended market he could go 75% S&P 500 and 25% extended market. Caller: One year ago bought some AAA rated insured Municipal bonds paying 5%. She is 60 years old and wonders if she should go back into the stock market. Bob said why place that money at risk? Use it to enhance your quality of life. It gives a tax-free income. She made a good investment and should be proud of it. Caller: attended the event at the Rainbow room and thought of it as a gift to investors. He is trying to help his daughter with her finances. She is at Critical Mass and has her money in a Tax-exempt bond fund. She is worried about erosion in principal when rates increase. Bob offered a couple suggestions TIPS or buying date certain bonds. Caller: had been tempted to sell everything buy didn’t. He saw the bulletin on Tuesday and is trying to get in line with portfolio I or II. Should he use his cash reserves to do so. Bob said yes. It is easy to do and would do it when the market is in the S&P 500 vicinity of 800 or lower. Caller: has read “The Intelligent Asset Allocator” by William Bernstein and has decided on 70% stocks and 30% bonds. His question is about how to invest the bond portion. The money is in cash now. Bob said the way to go is to use short maturity bonds/funds or if the idea of declining NAV is a problem look at laddered CDs. He could also consider GNMAs and TIPS since they will yield better than CDs but sees no reason to keep it in cash. Caller: wanted to know the effect on I-bonds if we go to war. Will it cause inflation and should she wait to buy I-bonds or buy them now. Bob said now inflation is a benign 2.6% and finds I-bonds attractive for purchase. Bob began hour three with more France bashing (not that I minded). He said we don’t need French anything. We should pack it all up and send it back with a note to Chirac saying “We don’t need your stinking exports”. Caller: disagrees with bob about France and said what Bob is suggesting is economic aggressiveness. Bob said not at all it is merely a statement. Bob went on to praise friend and diplomat Tony Blair. It was a short call. Caller: has a friend that said rates are going up and now is a time to lock in a mortgage rate, he would like Bob’s opinion. Bob said rates are extremely attractive. This is a great time so lock it in rather than worry about trying to save a few pennies and hit the exact bottom. Caller: is in her late 50’s and will receive about $200K in a few weeks. This will be a taxable investment. She wanted to know how to buy California General Obligations without paying commissions. Bob said to look in the Monday New York Times for a table of new offerings of California General Obligations. Then it is a matter of getting a proper order in, on new issues the seller pays the commission. Caller: agreed with Bob about France and then got on a soapbox about the American Farmer. He hopes people appreciate the work Farmers do to feed us. Another short call. Caller has 75% of his mothers money in GNMAs and is worried if that is a bad idea. Bob said not at all, well done. It was a home run. Caller is worried about NAV dropping once rates increase. Bob said he could put together a ladder of FDIC insured CDs and that way no worries about lose of principal. Caller: wonders about the relative safety of a GIC vs. GNMA and TIPS. Bob said not to worry if it is from a high quality insurance company. For income Bob likes a mix that could include some GICs, GNMAs, and TIPS. Caller: recently refinanced his home mortgage for a 7 year fixed rate of 5.25% he plans on living there about that long, he is in the 30-40% marginal tax bracket. The new arrangement lowered his payment $400 per month. He would like to know if it is better to prepay the mortgage or invest the $400. Bob said under those circumstances it is hard to prepay a loan like that. Factoring in inflation it is pretty close to free money. Caller: started by talking about Hollywood stars protesting war and wanted to know what Bob thought of that. Bob said in some cases it upsets him, he said he would not name names but in short order he did mention some by name going to Baghdad and leading peace rallies here at home. Bob thought this is a bad idea and those people have the right to do that but are really becoming tools of Saddam. The caller questioned bob’s roll as a media figure and how he affects opinions. Bob said he is not in the realm of Hollywood stars. The caller then asked about Bob’s views on International investments. Bob said it is very small and has not increased his International allocation. Of late non-U.S. investing has turned out very much like U.S. Many U.S. companies do benefit from foreign business so “homogenization” has become part of the modern era of investing. Bob gave credit to John Bogle for bring this fact to light very early. After a break Bob said his previous caller bothered him, thinking the caller implied Bob was in the same class as the celebrity that visited Baghdad. (actually I got the impression the caller thought the Baghdad trip was a good idea and Bob was being to harsh on him.) Bob said since day one his program has always been about the free and open exchange of ideas. Bob defends the rights of those leading peace rallies the right to do so. He said he was talking about it not out there leading the cause. Caller: was apparently a WWII veteran and shared some stories about his experience with the French. He said the French are damaging us economically and encourages everyone to boycott (is that a French word?) French products. Bob brought out the good friendship between Saddam and Chirac and the trading the two nations engage in. Caller: her husband has retired from the military and has a $55,000 annual pension. She wondered how this could affect their allocation. Bob said it should have no effect, it should be an extra income and give them a good feeling. Bob likes a balanced allocation and encouraged her to spend money. Bob said there are cemeteries full of people that didn’t spend their money. If you are not a spender you are a saver. From there it is a very short walk to becoming a hoarder. That ’s all she wrote. -- posted by SteveT » deweyjones - Re: 3-15-03 radio summary Steve, Thank you so much for posting this summary. It is most appreciated.Thank you again. -- posted by deweyjones » David_Korn - Summary and commentary of Bob Brinker on Moneytalk This week, I am going to post one call and editorial comment each night from last weekend's broadcast on this thread. Feel free to post comments or questions in the main Brinker thread since this is for information only. Excerpt from David Korn's Stock Market Commentary, Interpretation of Moneytalk (Bob Brinker Host), Financial Education, Helpful Links, Guest Editorials and Special Alert E-mail Service. (March 22-23, 2003) Editorial Comment ("EC"): Here is how the major market indexes have played out since Bob Brinker's timing model turned "favorable" based on the S&P 500 Index's close on March 10, 2003 and he recommended investors redeploy their cash reserves into a fully invested position by bulletin issued at 2:00 a.m. on March 11, 2003: S&P 500 Index: Up 10.95% NOTE: In October, 2000, Bob Brinker recommended to his subscribers with aggressive objectives that they invest 30% to 50% of their cash reserves in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ shares). He also recommended to his subscribers with conservative investment objectives that they invest 20% to 30% of their cash reserves in the QQQ shares. That recommendation was repeated in January, 2001. He has maintained a hold on the QQQ shares ever since and now allocates a percentage of his fully invested position to the Nasdaq 100. ******************************************** IF YOU MISSED THE BUY SIGNAL, WHAT SHOULD YOU DO NOW? EC: Bob's view makes sense, although in practice it doesn't always work out. For example, one of my subscribers pointed out that during last weekend's broadcast, Bob said the same thing -- don't chase rallies, and buy on weakness. Well, if you heeded that advice, you would have missed the rally this past week. This is an issue that Bob is obviously aware of, because he took several calls from people who did not get back into the market yet and are anxious to do so. Read on. NOTE: If you would like to read the rest of this newsletter, and/or find out how to subscribe to my service, drop me a line at: Davidk555@earthlink.net or visit my website: -- posted by David_Korn » David_Korn - Summary and commentary of Bob Brinker on Moneytalk In response to message posted by David_Korn:Excerpt from David Korn's Stock Market Commentary, Interpretation of Moneytalk (Bob Brinker Host), Financial Education, Helpful Links, Guest Editorials and Special Alert E-mail Service. (March 22-23, 2003) FACTORS GIVING RISE THE MARKET RISE Bob Brinker Comment: Bob, the Valley Guy, started the broadcast off noting that the market action last week was "totally awesome." Indeed, it was the greatest week of stock market gains for the Dow since 1982. Stocks went up every day during the week. Bob addressed three factors that he believes are contributing to the recent gains on Wall Street. First, Bob thinks that investors last week were responding to the collapse in the price of a barrel of oil. Just two weeks ago, oil was almost $40 per barrel and the "bad news bears" were predicting that oil prices could go to $100 per barrel. In the three words made famous by daBrink, "they were wrong!" Today, oil prices are closer to $27 per barrel as prices collapsed in the wake of the developments over the past week. The widely anticipated demolition of Iraqi oil wells did not occur, and instead an amazingly small number of wells have been set ablaze. The drop in oil prices has been one of the major contributors to the buying frenzy on Wall Street. Investors recognize that a drop in oil prices is the equivalent of a massive tax cut to the U.S. consumer who will now have more money to spend on other items, rather than devoting their income to energy costs. Bob then noted the recent positive action of the U.S. Dollar. Bob patted himself on the back for pointing out a few weeks ago that the dollar had firmed up and was looking better after being in free-fall for so long. Over the last few weeks, the dollar has been gaining against the euro and the yen. A strengthening dollar is another factor that has been contributing to the bullish behavior of U.S. stock market investors. In response to a caller later in the weekend, Bob won the award for modestly calling himself the "voice in the wilderness" in his so-called "discussion" of the direction of the dollar. Bob told the caller that he continues to believe the trend in the dollar will remain strong. Finally, investors are encouraged by the Federal Reserve's stance on monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is more accommodative than at any point in time during Bob's entire life. This means easy money in terms of lower interest rates. Likewise, the current fiscal policy is also beneficial to the stock market. Our government is running a deficit in the $300-$400 billion range and this spending should have a stimulative effect. EC: The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-1/4%. In its press release announcing its decision to leave interest rates unchanged, the FOMC left some market watchers scratching their heads when they decided to forego their usual risk assessment statement. Does it mean the Fed is clueless about the direction of the economy? Either that, or they don't want to look foolish if the war puts a damper in their predictions. Specifically, here is what they said or didn't say as it were: "In light of the unusually large uncertainties clouding the geopolitical situation in the short run and their apparent effects on economic decision making, the Committee does not believe it can usefully characterize the current balance of risks with respect to the prospects for its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth." The FOMC did issue one positive statement -- a statement that I think daBrink finds support in his economic indicator; namely, the prospects for the growth in the economy given the abatement of oil prices: "While incoming economic data since the January meeting have been mixed, recent labor market indicators have proven disappointing. However, the hesitancy of the economic expansion appears to owe importantly to oil price premiums and other aspects of geopolitical uncertainties. The Committee believes that as those uncertainties lift, as most analysts expect, the accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with ongoing growth in productivity, will provide support to economic activity sufficient to engender an improving economic climate over time." NOTE: If you would like to read the rest of this newsletter, and/or find out how to subscribe to my service, drop me a line at: mailto:davidk555@earthlink.net or visit my website: -- posted by David_Korn « Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 Next » Please follow the guidelines set forth in the Suite101 Posting Etiquette when adding to the discussion. |
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