Moneytalk Bob Brinker Summaries - Information ONLY

» Kirk - Brinker's TEFQX Recommendation

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In response to message posted by jsehn:

But there's no reason to spread lies. Brinker did not have 50% equity weighting at the top, nor does he have 50% weighting now. His position has been 35% equities for quite a long time now.

Where did I write this? I don't recall ever saying this. Perhaps you need to read more carefully? Please post a link and I will make a blue lined retraction if true.

I DID say in the post you replied to
http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
that he was 40% in equities at the top and he is NOW 20% in equities at the most recent bottom. This is his official newsletter P1 and P2 allocations which is how he is measured.

In addition, he has been lambasting internet stocks since well before the bubble burst.

Yes but he recommended his subscribers buy them right at the top also. Sort of playing it both ways? Below are excerpts from his newsletter:

TEFQX Write-up in January & February 2000 Marketimers:

Brinker, Jan 8, 2000 MT TEFQX=$15.40; "Firsthand e-Commerce Fund, (888-883-3863) is added to page four of the Recommended list this month. We will include a writeup (sic) on this fund in the February Marketimer. For now, we would limit investments in this fund to 5%, and this 5% would be part of our revised 25% overall United States equity weighting. This fund is expected to be volatile, therefore it is appropriate only for very high risk tolerance investors.

Brinker, Feb 8, 2000 MT: TEFQX=$15.99; "Firsthand e-Commerce Fund is the newest addition to the Marketimer No-Load Fund Recommended List on Page four…… We have ALWAYS viewed books, toys and on-line auctions as the tip of the iceberg for electronic business. We believe business-to-business transactions will greatly surpass retail e-commerce including software development tools, database providers, hardware manufacturers and service providers.

We are very positive on the potential for the internet growth track to carry forward through international penetration.
We are hopeful the fund will be able to add many of the best positioned B2B companies going forward. Many of these companies are not yet publicly owned but will come to market in the future."

March 7, 2001 MT:TEFQX=$3.93; "We are removing Firsthand e-Commerce Fund from the Recommended List. We rate the fund a "hold" at these levels… we expect the shares to recover value over time."

Pg 8 of any MT: "Portfolio 1 is designed for investors with aggressive growth investment objectives. Such investors seek maximum returns and are willing and able to accept high levels of risk and volatility."
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He might have trashed regular internet stocks on the radio but he was sure hot to trot for "Business to Business" internet stocks where he felt "they were different."

They are STILL a HOLD even after another 50% decline.

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For 2005, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" was Up 13.2% vs. QQQQ up 1.2% vs. DJIA down 0.6% vs. S&P500 Up 4.8%

As of 12/31/05 the Total Return for "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" since 12/31/98 is Up 197% while the S&P500 only up 12%!!! & NASDAQ only up 1%!!! (my explore portfolio beta is about 1.5)

What should be quite clear is a “buy and forget” market strategy using the DOW, S&P500 or NASDAQ would have under performed holding money funds over the past seven years while my newsletter portfolio nearly tripled every dollar invested

Since beating the market is hard for most to do, I recommend a "Core and Explore" approach to investing. Core means place 80 to 99% of your money into a CORE, buy-and-hold, no load, mutual fund portfolio and then EXPLORE with the remainder. To build your core portfolio, I suggest a diversified basket of index funds such as one of the two Vanguard index fund portfolios I recommend in "Kirk's Newsletter ." For the remainder, I recommend Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio.

Through Jan 1, 2006, these two core portfolios, composed of seven different Vanguard Index funds, have beaten the S&P500 over the past five and seven years by over 20% using no market timing and only rebalancing once a year. These index fund portfolios include US equities, international equities and an REIT index fund.

As of 12/31/05 the Total Return for "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" since 12/31/98 is Up 197% while the S&P500 only up 12%!!! & NASDAQ only up 1%!!! (My explore portfolio beta is about 1.5)

-- posted by Kirk

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» Kirk - QQQ Poll Results

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This is a QQQ poll we took here last year:

Do you Follow Bob Brinker?"
We have a diverse mix of people on our site and they seem to delight in discussing ABC Radio's Bob Brinker. I'm curious just how many follow his advice and to what extent. Please answer this question:__________________________________ "On Jan. 2000 Brinker said to raise 60% cash, later he upped it to 65% cash. On the week of 10/16/00 with QQQ in the
$80's Brinker subscribers received a special bulletin which said to put 20% to 50% of that cash into QQQ IMMEDIATELY. QQQ hit $27 on 9/21/01. As a measure of how many follow him, complete the sentence with the best answer: I ...

didn't follow any of Brinker's advice. (104 votes, 21.58%)
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lightened up in Jan 2000 and I put a small amounts into QQQ (58 votes, 12.03%)
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went to 65% (or more) cash then put 0 to 20% into QQQ (160 votes, 33.20%)
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went to roughly 65% cash then put 21 to 50% into QQQ (91 votes, 18.88%)
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went to roughly 65% cash then put 51% or more into QQQ (69 votes, 14.32%)
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Brinker MT Act Immediately Bulletin
BJ Group Nasdaq100 Memo

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Brinker MT Act Immediately Bulletin
BJ Group Nasdaq100 Memo

I find it significant that of Brinker's followers, more felt inclined to put more than the 50% recommended (69 people) into QQQ than those that just lightened up in January 2000 and applied a small dose (under 20%) of QQQs (58 people)

-- posted by Kirk

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