Moneytalk Bob Brinker Summaries - Information ONLY

Top 597. Oct 14, 2002 5:43 PM

» ChristophLm - Re: Re: Summaries section mission from Brinker site

In response to message posted by David_Korn:

I just found this site from searching Yahoo. I would like to receive a copy of your Moneytalk commentary David. Thank you.

-- posted by ChristophLm

mailto:davidk555@earthlink.net

Top 598. Oct 15, 2002 8:32 PM

» David_Korn - Re: Re: Re: Summaries section mission from Brinker site

In response to message posted by ChristophLm:

Chris, drop me an e-mail and I will be happy to provide you with a complimentary copy of my extensive notes and commentary of this weekend's Moneytalk broadcast, just e-mail me at:

-- posted by David_Korn

Top 599. Oct 16, 2002 9:57 AM

» Kirk - TEFQX is Still a Hold

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Brinker has never issued a sell of this. I have created a history of the recommendation along with our warnings about this fund right here on Suite101.com

TEFQX Write-up in January & February 2000 Marketimers:

Brinker, Jan 8, 2000 MT TEFQX=$15.40; "Firsthand e-Commerce Fund, (888-883-3863) is added to page four of the Recommended list this month. We will include a writeup (sic) on this fund in the February Marketimer. For now, we would limit investments in this fund to 5%, and this 5% would be part of our revised 25% overall United States equity weighting. This fund is expected to be volatile, therefore it is appropriate only for very high risk tolerance investors.

Brinker, Feb 8, 2000 MT: TEFQX=$15.99; "Firsthand e-Commerce Fund is the newest addition to the Marketimer No-Load Fund Recommended List on Page four…… We have ALWAYS viewed books, toys and on-line auctions as the tip of the iceberg for electronic business. We believe business-to-business transactions will greatly surpass retail e-commerce including software development tools, database providers, hardware manufacturers and service providers.

We are very positive on the potential for the internet growth track to carry forward through international penetration.
We are hopeful the fund will be able to add many of the best positioned B2B companies going forward. Many of these companies are not yet publicly owned but will come to market in the future."

March 7, 2001 MT:TEFQX=$3.93; "We are removing Firsthand e-Commerce Fund from the Recommended List. We rate the fund a "hold" at these levels… we expect the shares to recover value over time."

Pg 8 of any MT: "Portfolio 1 is designed for investors with aggressive growth investment objectives. Such investors seek maximum returns and are willing and able to accept high levels of risk and volatility."
<img src=http://cbs.marketwatch.com/charts/int-ad... width=452 height=366>

I tried to warn people here: "Be careful with this fund, TEFQX, as it is going up sort of artificially. These internet stocks coming public now only release a small percentage of their shares. This means the demand far outstrips the supply of stock shares. The game is to have the insiders sell some of their shares at inflated prices before the price falls back to Earth when maybe the remaining 80 to 90% of the shares hit the market." (Kirk, December 12, 1999) http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

Yup, he was buying into the IPO mania in internet stocks right at the very top. He did mention it was volatile and not for risk averse investors which would leave out P3 types that don't market time.

Everyone is entitled to make mistakes, but most of us have our mistakes included in our record. Brinker is very good at putting his risky advice "off the record"... Remember how he used to brag about how well MSFT, Lucent and Vodaphone did for his followers back when these were way up? Off the books advice allows you to brag if they go up and sweep them under the rug if they go down. The purpose of this site is to ATTEMPT to hold people like Brinker to a higher standard and keep track of all their advice. Please help us with this here.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 600. Oct 16, 2002 2:52 PM

» Kirk - Today is the 2 yr Anniversary of the QQQ Recommendation

Happy 2 Yr Anniversary!

2000 1019 BJG_QQQ_Memo: http://home.ix.netcom.com/~mlee1984/Brin...
2000 1016 Act_ImmediatelyQQQ: http://home.ix.netcom.com/~mlee1984/Brin...

Hard to imagine anyone that talks about "trading stock Intel" for years then recommending up to one third of one's life savings into QQQ near the top with NO STOPS! I've yet to meet an experienced trader that doesn't use stops and who has so much hubris to bet that large of an amount on a single trade.... until Brinker.

sort of like a bad marriage where you decided to "HOLD" it together until the kids graduate from high school.. and they are now only 2 yrs old.

8.5% a year will get QQQ back to $83 in 16 yrs!

-- posted by Kirk

Top 601. Oct 19, 2002 9:51 AM

» capran - brinkers latest

I'd sure be interested in peoples thoughts on whether Brinker missed the bottom, or if we will return to the lows of 10 days ago. Unfortunately I had just started catching Brinker in 2000 and I stayed in the market. I even stupidly kept putting more money in every year, usually the first 4 months of each calander year. Even with the last bounce up, I'm still down 50% from our 2002 Roth deposits (into a fund that has alot of QQQ type stocks. I'd sure like to miss another 10% downdraft, but the fear that this was the bottom again has me staying in.(altho I am certainly done putting new money in the arket unless we retest the lows. a penny for your thoughts! thanks

-- posted by capran

Top 602. Oct 19, 2002 5:00 PM

» Kirk - Re: brinkers latest

In response to message posted by capran:

Hi capran.

Good question. I am trying to use this as an "information only" thread without discussion. We have a "Brinker Discussion Thread" at this URL
http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/2...

Please post your question there and see what people say, thanks.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 603. Oct 19, 2002 5:11 PM

» Kirk - Economics in One Lesson

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Today I heard Bob Brinker recommend a book for all to read, Economics in One Lesson. I didn't get the author, but Amazon.com only lists one book by that name and it is an investment classic.

I checked his website and didn't see it listed. Perhaps he is waiting for the weekend to end?

Anyway, here is some info I found.

Economics in One Lesson
Paperback: 205 pages

Table of Contents
FOREWORD STEVE FORBES
PREFACE TO THE NEW EDITION
PREFACE TO THE FIRST EDITION
PART ONE: THE LESSON
I / The Lesson
PART TWO: THE LESSON APPLIED
II / The Broken Window
III / The Blessings of Destruction
IV / Public Works Mean Taxes
V / Taxes Discourage Production
VI / Credit Diverts Production
VII / The Curse of Machinery
VIII / Spread-the-Work Schemes
IX / Disbanding Troops and Bureaucrats
X / The Fetish of Full Employment
XI / Who's "Protected" by Tariffs?
XII / The Drive for Exports
XIII / "Parity" Prices
XIV / Saving the X Industry
XV / How the Price System Works
XVI / "Stabilizing" Commodities
XVII / Government Price-Fixing
XVIII / What Rent Control Does
XIX / Minimum Wage Laws
XX / Do Unions Really Raise Wages?
XXI / "Enough to Buy Back the Product"
XXII / The Function of Profits
XXIII / The Mirage of Inflation
XXIV / The Assault on Saving
XXV / The Lesson Restated
PART THREE: THE LESSON AFTER THIRTY YEARS
XXVI / The Lesson After Thirty Years
A NOTE ON BOOKS

Excerpted from Economics in One Lesson: Fiftieth Anniversary Edition by Henry Hazlitt. Foreword by Steve Forbes. Copyright (c) 1984 by Laissez Faire Books. Reprinted by permission.
The following is the Foreword by Steve Forbes.

We have been inundated lately with a barrage of 50th anniversaries of important events--the dropping of the atomic bombs, Iwo Jima, VE and VJ days, Bretton Woods. And with this edition of Henry Hazlitt's best-known work we commemorate another. Five decades have passed since the publication of a book on economics so powerful in its clarity and simplicity that we can declare, without question, it has shaped our world.

Used: Economics in One Lesson: 50th Anniversary Edition
by Henry Hazlitt

-- posted by Kirk

http://pl1.polls.scd.yahoo.com/public/ar...

Top 604. Oct 20, 2002 5:31 PM

» David_Korn - Commentary and Interpretation of Bob Brinker's Moneytalk

For those of you that missed Moneytalk hosted by Bob Brinker, here is an excerpt from my extensive notes and commentary from his show. I would be happy to send you the rest if you drop me an e-mail which is at the end of this post.

Excerpt from David Korn's Stock Market Commentary, Interpretation of Moneytalk, Financial Education, Helpful Links, Guest Editorials and Special Alert E-mail Service.
October 12-13, 2002 Edition

Website: http://www.begininvesting.com/

BUY SIGNAL IN LESS THAN SIX MONTHS!

Caller/Brinker Comment: A caller late in the weekend asked Bob if he is ever going to issue a buy signal on the market. In response, Bob said he fully expects to issue a "buy signal" in anticipation of a cyclical bull market sometime "within the next 6 months."

EC: This is the first show that Bob has indicated that he thought the buy signal would take place in less than six months. Prior to this weekend's broadcast, Bob had maintained that the recommendation would come within a year. Another caller to the broadcast who was a Marketimer subscriber, characterized the likelihood of Brinker's buy signal as sometime within the next 3 to 6 months, and Bob did not disagree with the caller. Stay tuned!

CALLER OF THE DAY!

Caller of the day: This past week, the S&P500 Index fell to as low as 775.80 intra-day, which was about the low that the index reached back in July, 2002. Do you think there is any significance to the fact that the market bounced back on Thursday and Friday as far as establishing a temporary bottom in the market? Bob seemed to have been expecting a question along these lines, and jumped right into what sounded like a prepared answer. Bob said one of the things that has been amazing to him, is the amount of attention that was given to the market's bounce on Thursday and Friday. Bob says the amount of excitement generated by Thursday and Friday's market rise, is seemingly without regard to the decline that had preceded that. Prior to Thursday and Friday's bounce, the market had been undergoing a precipitous decline and had gone down extremely sharply. Sure it bounced Thursday and Friday, but all the focus was on the bounce, but not the declines before that. Bob noted that for the moment, people want to latch onto any upticks, or any bounces that come along. For the most part, Bob noted that these declarations are coming from the perma-bulls --- those with life-long bullish positions who have ridden down fully invested positions all the way. For that reason, they must attach such importance to these bounces.

EC: A few things here. First, I am glad Bob addressed this call, because it shows that he doesn't believe this bounce marks the beginning of the next cyclical bull market trend. I agree with Bob that the bounce came on the heels of enormous selling pressure; however, I disagree with Bob over the importance of the market's action this past week as I do think a "temporary bottom" or short-term rally is in the works right now. The caller didn't ask if the cyclical bear market is over, he asked whether there might be a temporary bottom in place which I liken to the temporary bottom that we saw following the September terrorist attacks through the January highs. This resulted in gains in excess of 20% for the major indices.

BOTTOMS UP?

Brinker Comment: Bob took a few shots at the analytic community on Wall Street suggesting that they are drinking "hope cocktails." Bob derided those who thought the market bottomed when the S&P500 Index was in the 1100s. Then, when the S&P500 Index fell to 966 after the terrorist attacks, they called that the bottom. This goes on and on, with more and more erroneous predictions of where the market would bottom. These predictions have turned out to be "a joke."

EC: This comment by Bob came at the end of his opening monologue on Sunday's show, and further suggests to me that Bob does not believe that the market bottomed on Thursday as so many analysts came out and once again called Thursday "THE bottom."

SECULAR BEAR MARKETS

Brinker Comment: Bob gave listeners something to chew on by referencing how the market performed in the last secular bear market. During the last secular bear market from February, 1966 through August, 1982, the Dow declined about 20%. The S&P500 Index basically moved sideways. After 16-1/2 years, there was virtually no change in the index (about .5% nominal total). Although investors collected their dividends which are taxable in taxable accounts, they did not collect anything in terms of market appreciation via ownership in the Index.

EC: One of the underpinnings to the view that we are in a secular bear market, is the belief that stock valuations will need an extended amount of time to revert back to their historical mean. On Yahoo! Finance this weekend, there is an interesting poll that asks you to guess what the market cap of all U.S. stocks is as a percentage of the entire U.S. economy (GDP). As of June 30, 2002, the answer to that question was 100%. According to a study done by Eric Bjorgen of The Leuthold Group, from 1926 to the second quarter of 2002, the long-term average for this ratio is 58% and it has stayed in the 40%-80% range for more than 38 out of the past 50 years. At the end of 1999, when daBrink issued his tactical asset allocation recommendation, the ratio peaked at 185%. As of June, 2002, it has eased to about 104%. That number, however, is still well above the historical average. More evidence that we are in a secular bear? You be the judge. Check out the poll and commentary at this link:

CYCLICAL BEAR MARKETS

Brinker Comment: During the secular bear market that began in February, 1966 and ended in August, 1982, there were several cyclical bear markets where the market declined over 20%. Bob referenced four distinct specific cyclical bear markets that occurred during the secular bear market:

February 1966 - October 1966: Down 23%
December 1968 - May, 1970: Down 37%
January 1973 - October 1974: Down over 40%
November 1980 - August 1982: Down 28%

Bob noted that in the present secular bear market, which began in the first quarter of 2000, we are now in the first cyclical bear market. The current cyclical bear market has now lasted 31 months, making it the longest cyclical bear market since the greatest depression and it is now the LARGEST cyclical bear market in terms of peak to trough decline with the S&P closing down 49% on Wednesday night. It is still down about 45% this weekend.

The magnitude of the current cyclical bear market decline is significant in that many investors were programmed at the end of 1999 to believe that we were in a "new era" where this time things would be different. Now, we know that it was exactly the opposite. Bob noted that the peak in early 2000 was somewhat easy to see and call because we had a parabolic rise toward the end which can only be described as a "mania." During this time, investors margined themselves to the hilt as speculation drove the markets. Margin debt approached $3 billion in the first quarter of 2000, which was the largest amount ever. Investors put the "petal to the metal" in their decision to take more and more risk.

EC: I found a chart that really illustrates the various long-term or "secular" trends that have occurred in the U.S. market over the last century. Here is a 99-year chart of the inflation-corrected Dow Jones Industrial Average which shows the that on average the long-term cycles have lasted about 16 years:

http://cpcug.org/user/invest/secular.gif

MAKING MONEY IN SECULAR BEAR MARKETS

Caller: This caller wanted to know whether we are now seeing the polar opposite of the secular bull market mania. Could we now be at the end of the secular bear market? Bob noted that secular bear markets tend to last a long time, anywhere from 8 to 20 years if you look back through history. In that context, we are only in the third year, which suggests we are early in the secular trend. Bob thinks we remain in cyclical bear market number one. Bob expects to see alternating cyclical bull and cyclical bear markets for as long as the secular trend continues and which will ultimately end with a cyclical bear market. The last time this happened, was on August 12, 1982 when the Dow closed at 777. That date marked the end of the last cyclical bear market in a 16-1/2 year secular bear market that had begun in 1966. In the interim, Bob does think there will be opportunities to make money in the stock market in the cyclical bull markets.

The caller then said that there is really no way to predict cyclical moves in the market, but Bob quickly interrupted, as you might imagine he would! Bob said he believes there is a "good probability" of being able to "predict cyclical bull markets" and he is going to do his best to try and do that.

EC: Bob's response to the last caller represents his philosophy as well as what he is currently selling as the basis for his newsletter, Marketimer. All individuals who follow Bob Brinker, should carefully consider whether Bob will be able to successfully time cyclical bull markets. So far, he has not timed any mini-bull or mini-bear markets since the secular trend in 2000 began. Those mini-bear/bull markets I am referring to, consist of 20% moves to the upside, or downside on a closing basis. Bob has chosen to distinguish those shorter term moves from true "cyclical" moves, by virtue of the time frame. Bob views cyclical bull/bear markets as lasting anywhere from 1-3 years. Prior to 1991, Bob failed in his efforts to time the cyclical moves; however, since then, Bob has said he improved his timing model by adding the "sentiment" indicator. It would be interesting to hear a caller ask Bob how his model has done in "timing" cyclical bull/bear markets in the past. I would be very interested to hear his response.

F YOU WOULD LIKE A COMPLIMENTARY COPY OF THE REST OF THIS NEWSLETTER, E-MAIL ME A REQUEST:

mailto:davidk555@earthlink.net

-- posted by David_Korn

Top 605. Oct 21, 2002 7:18 AM

» Kirk - Comments on 10/19/02 Weekend Show

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Re: Bob Brinker summaries
by: greatgambino (34/M/sacto, cal) 10/21/02 03:12 am
Msg: 31972 of 31976

I think Bob in his brilliiance finally realized that he could be ultimately held accountable for what he was saying. Although the summaries drop off the page after a brief period, you could print them up and hold them.

Such statements as " we believe that the market will return to a buy within six months" could be viewed by the prospective listener after six months and say "what happened?"

NO matter. you still can hold him accountable. Just tape his programs, date them with a label and listem to them 3-6 months later. Then you will understand how clueless he is. I did this many years ago and it was quite revealing how he operates. you know how accomading he is to real estate loan questions? Right before the big jump in real estate he was poo-pooing bricks and mortar investments. I got him on tape! He can go with the flow all he wants, he doesnt know which way the flow is going though he pretends to have this 'humble' prescience.

The claims get stripped away
by: bobscoverup 10/21/02 06:46 am

It's amusing to hear people-the same people who were all bubbly about Brinker's QQQ calls of a couple years ago still claiming he is great at something other than selling books.

Boogle is right--nobody consistantly gets the marketiming thing right. If Brinker could he wouldn't hide and spin (lie) and have links here censored. He would just count the friggin money and increase the price on that worthless rag.

Take em one at a time. For the longest time Brinker claimed to be able to pick no load mutual funds that would beat the market over time. He gave up claiming that in the late 90s and claimed then that his forte was marketiming. That is because his claim of picking outperforming mutual funds over a long period was debunked. He admits now that it is impossible to be the indexes over the long haul picking funds. Bogle RIGHT

Then he claimed to be good at calling "counter trend rallies" How'd that go? A third of a portfolios thrown at QQQs at 83 and held to 19. This weekend in Capitulation Central Brinker told the audience "Marketiming is a great idea as long as you don't try to make calls against the longer term trend"--Shazam Bob. Bogle was right again! Your subscribers are f'ed again.

Now what is Bob selling? Making short term "cyclical bulls" calls against the long term trend. How many of those has he pulled off? Bogle will be right, the subscribers will be f'ed again. Nothing changes except Brinker's claims and excuses to extricate 185 bucks from the next goober.

We can always fall back on "But Brinker gives good Book"

-- posted by Kirk