Moneytalk Bob Brinker Summaries - Information ONLY

Top 587. Dec 10, 2000 9:53 AM

» Kirk - Year 2000 Summary thru Dec 10th

I made this post on the Brinker Thread but I wanted to archive it here so it is easier to find as I think the points I make are important. Rande makes an excellent 1 line summary of what I write at the very end.
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In response to message posted by shallam:

Good point!

Mr. Korn's post was excellent. It presented a balanced view of BB calls. It's a great example of BB's dual nature. Having generally identified a change in the market entering 2000, he refuses to simply accept credit for a good prediction -- he feels the need to stretch the truth and claim more than he deserves. Why not simply say I became risk averse because of the heightened probability of a difficult market, the difficult market arrived, hence we are in a good (cash) position (save the Q trade). I didn't go 100% cash because I wasn't 100% sure.

It doesn't seem to be in his nature. Perhaps that nature is what makes him pretty good at identifying major market trends? I agreed at the start of the year that 2000 was going to be a difficult year. I never thought we'd see the rally we saw in the NASDAQ, but I was sure positioned to profit from it as I owned many stocks in the index that did well.

I actually agreed at the beginning of the year when I said I though it might be like 1994 again due to the Fed, just I don't agree with how you handle this. Major moves in and out of the market due to short term "trouble" is a sure way to lose money over the long term.

Brinker ALSO thought we'd see high inflation (hence cash rather than GNMAs or Strip Zeros) and I didn't so I bought BOTH long bonds and GNMAs with profit taking from Technology and I made good money by being right.

Brinker also thought Europe would do better so he had a higher weighting there and they have done worse. I agreed with this prediction but kept my allocation constant. (I did scalp a few percent when the Euro bottomed last month and I doubled up as I shifted from a managed to an index fund and made a few percent on that move by overweighting for a few weeks by being in both funds. I sold for a gain Friday as the managed fund pays a dividend tomorrow.) We would have done better to not invest overseas, but this diversity is supposed to eventually pay off.

So, he got one call right, the US market would be difficult, but missed on International and Interest rates. Since many of us are diversified across all three of these areas, I can't get too excited about being right in only one of the three. ESPECIALLY if the "difficult times" doesn't even go much beyond the normal 10% corrections that are to be expected. We never really got close to a 20% correction.

Kirk Lindstrom (12/10/00)
<img src= http://pw2.netcom.com/~kirk_69/Images/ra... width=95% height=4>

Kirk,

Well-said. In other words, why get your knickers in a bunch over the impossibility of trying to predict the future when broad diversification and prudent asset allocation does the trick.

Rande Spiegelman
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-- posted by Kirk

Top 588. Dec 26, 2000 8:30 AM

» Kirk - Soap-oh or is it MOABO?

Was Bill told to "Get with the program?"

I think everyone should be encouraged to call the show and ask Bill this. Tell your friends to call and ask Bill next weekend if he is still at 80% equities and why? I got to listen to an hour of his Show Sunday driving to my brother's and it sure seemed like Bill NOW knows that the way to get people to "keep coming back" is to have a future MOABO. Bill used to be a buy and hold type of guy and now he seems to fall all over himself to tell how wonderful it is to avoid a 10% correction.

I really wonder if Bill is still at 80% equities and, if so, then why?

I almost called Bill to tell him how much I liked that term and that I think I first read of "Mother of all buying/selling opportunities" in a "Brinker Interpretation" that someone on the internet sells. A few weeks later it seems one of these subscribers from Texas called the show and asked Bob if the recent S&P500 new area high was the "Mother of all selling opportunities?"

I liked that old caller who thought if there was a word "Soapo", then it would be pronounced "soap-oh". It was sure an interesting discussion of the words "SOAP" and "BOAT. I am sure Bill would appreciate further etymology on the term "MAOBO" and how it came from on of Bob's big fans that often posts free summaries of the show right on Suite101.com!

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-- posted by Kirk

Top 589. Jan 12, 2001 5:26 PM

» Kirk - Classic Brinkerspeak

First posted here: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

Par9 Pg1 Jan01 MT: (numbers changed to protect subscriber data)

"we are expecting potential gains for the Nasdaq100 Index of up to xx% or more as measured from the JanYY closing low of ZZZ or any subsequent minor new closing low in the very near-term."

"of up to"

"or more"

Doesn't that just about include every number?

I read that and fell out of my chair laughing!

No wonder so many think he is brilliant

-- posted by Kirk

Top 590. Oct 6, 2002 8:48 PM

» Kirk - Moneytalk Summary Thread

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We have another thread for moneytalk summaries that seems to have replaced this one.

Please see this URL http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
for more current Moneytalk Summaries and discussion. Feel free to post questions about Moneytalk and Bob Brinker there.

Also, try this URL for even more http://www.suite101.com/discussions.cfm/...

-- posted by Kirk

Top 591. Oct 7, 2002 12:12 AM

» AL_W - Re: Classic Brinkerspeak

In response to message posted by Kirk:

On Brinker's speakese of "of up to" "or more"

Reminds me of statement my uncle made to me one evening following the weather forecast heard while listening to the ballgrame on the radio. This was in the Mid 60's on the ranch in Northern Nevada listening to a Reno station. The weather report said "there will a slight chance of a few widely scattered thunder showers". My uncle replied "well that doesn't sound like much of a chance for rain, does it."

-- posted by AL_W

Top 592. Oct 13, 2002 7:59 AM

» Kirk - 10/12/02 GNMA "Stop Loss"

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I watched the SF Giants lose one to the SL Cards Saturday so I didn't hear Moneytalk at all. But someone in our chat room said Brinker took a call about GNMA's and talked about a "stop loss" for this bond fund.

Can someone provide me with more details?

It seems odd that he'd >recommend putting up to a third of people's life savings into QQQ and not discuss or recommend a stop loss but then recommend one for something far less risky, a bond fund.

I think he has about 25% of conservative, P3 type people in GNMAs and he talked about them for income for ages. These probably won't decline more than 10% a year at the most (given their duration and yield) unless interest rates go to the moon in a short time. I just read where some "Seasons Traders" had 15% stop losses set for the S&P500 spyder. How tight of a stop did Brinker recommend?

-- posted by Kirk

Top 593. Oct 13, 2002 8:41 AM

» codfish_23 - Re: 10/12/02 GNMA "Stop Loss"

In response to message posted by Kirk:

I heard the call you're referring to, but then not much else, as the pregame show prior to LSU's mauling of Florida usurped the program.
Bob lauded the caller's wisdom in moving his money out of the stock market in March 2000, and into GNMA's. He commented that the caller had made money on both interest and capital appreciation, and that he needed to be diligent in order to lock in those profits going forward (I think he was also hinting that there would be a better use for this investment capital in the near future). Bob therefore recommended that his caller use a mental stop loss of 10 basis points, and if the NAV should decline by such an amount, he should sell the GNMA's and move to MM.
I was also wondering why a similar recommendation was not made during the QQQ debacle--oh, that's right..."we do not recommend selling on weakness"

Great job with the site Kirk. I enjoy the excellent posts on the TA thread.

BTW--any plans to have ppl vote on whether they think the bottom is in? I vote NO, and am profit taking into this rally.

-- posted by codfish_23

Top 594. Oct 13, 2002 9:55 AM

» Kirk - Re: Re: 10/12/02 GNMA "Stop Loss"

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In response to message posted by codfish_23:

Thanks Mr Fish23

BTW--any plans to have ppl vote on whether they think the bottom is in? I vote NO, and am profit taking into this rally.

The difficulty is to define "the CT rally"...
Did it peak Friday?
Will it peak in weeks, months or years?
or did we hit a final bottom?

I'm of the sort that thinks taking profits is ALWAYS wise if you did some buying when the market was lower (asset allocation). I also think the rally will be fairly significant but we need the jobs market to return by the new Year or the market will roll-over and hit a new low maybe next year or in 2004.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 595. Oct 13, 2002 9:31 PM

» Katrina75 - Summaries section mission from Brinker site

It's been a long time since I checked, so maybe this is old news (?) But, has BB dropped his program summaries?

Thank you.

-- posted by Katrina75