Moneytalk Bob Brinker Summaries - Information ONLY

Top 57. Jan 3, 1999 10:10 AM

» WillG - SteveT show summary

I too appreciate your show summary, Steve. I listened to the entire show, but still enjoy reading a summary.

-- posted by WillG

Top 58. Jan 3, 1999 11:14 AM

» BillR_5 - Summary

Steve - Post of the Week. You will automatically get my vote for post of the week any time you summarize the show like that, since I can't hear the show during the winter!

-- posted by BillR_5

Top 59. Jan 3, 1999 11:40 AM

» DennisF - Y2K

I disagree with the last line that they will wish they weren't born. Ed and North will both be very happy investing the money they made from the fools who purchased the books

-- posted by DennisF

Top 60. Jan 3, 1999 11:47 AM

» Paul_A14 - GREAT SUMMARY!!

Steve - Thanks Much for the 1/2/98 BB Moneytalk summary! The detail with which you covered the show is outstanding. I'm an on/off listener of Moneytalk and won't feel bad missing a showing knowing a summary like this is on this web page.

Thanks Again & Great Job!!

Paul_A14

-- posted by Paul_A14

Top 61. Jan 3, 1999 2:14 PM

» LR - Steve, You also get my vote for post of the week!

Steve, You also get my vote for post of the week! I heard only bits & pieces of the show yesterday, and you sure filled in all the blanks! Thanks for the best post yet on this summary page!

-- posted by LR

Top 62. Jan 3, 1999 5:39 PM

» Gene - Steve - Superb Post

Great job - very impressive, superb how you organized it and kept the "flow going"

Post of the week by far!!

Gene

-- posted by Gene

Top 63. Jan 10, 1999 6:48 AM

» SteveT - Saturday Jan. 9, 1999

Thank you for your kind words concerning the summary of last Saturdays show. I will try it again ,this time I thought it would be helpful to include reference points to aid in locating specific parts of the show on the archives. I will start each section with approximate time points. An example would be

:37 this would indicate 37 minutes in to the show and 2:23 would indicate 2 hours 23 minutes in to the show, you get the idea. Here we go

:10 Bob opened talking about the bull market of the 90’s going on & on. Cautioned there will be corrections and this gives the bear reason to make noise. Reviewed how far major indexes have come since Oct. 8th 1998. Talked about valuations of some Internet stocks and compared it to gambling and thought some of the recent price run up could in part be due to a short squeeze.

:20 A caller asked about his asset allocation at age 36 currently 100% in equities. Bob suggested 75-25 and now would be a good time to make the move. Much like last summer when Bob was telling all of us to make sure our allocation was were we want it and now is not the time to get greedy.

:27 Bob recommended 2 items for our personal reference library. Wall St. Journal Jan7 and Barron’s Jan. 11 both were mutual fund related.

:32 Caller asked about analyst Tom KurlaK (sp?) and his advise on INTC. Bob said he made the wrong call being bearish on the company when priced in the $70,s. The market didn’t care what Tom said.

:35 In 1994 a caller bought 100 shares of MSFT @ $74. Now with splits has 800 share worth about $120, 000 about 8% of net worth. Bob said sell half Monday and invest proceeds in a diversified fund keeping in reserve the money for the income Taxes due. The caller asked about Small caps and when they may take off. Bob said he is waiting to see money flow improve before he would raise the level in small caps.

:42 Bob again talked about amazon.com and said at some point stand up comics are going to start to talk about these stocks. Thought the prices may be driven up by unsophisticated investors with a mouse in hand relying on the greater fool theory. Recommended the first three chapters of "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" .

:53 Caller asked Bob to comment on semi conductor capital equipment area. Bob said we have had a Large parabolic rise. Reminded of the DCA approach he recommended last year. Caller asked if the party was over? Bob said 99 should be a good year, sales have been up for 3 straight months, and is Enthusiastic.

Caller asked about long term muni bonds vs. GNMAs was in 28% + 3% state tax bracket. Bob like the GNMAs because of the shorter average maturity. Bob still views the bond market as constructive.

1:10 Bob opened hour 2 talking about the mess in Washington D.C. and it will not lead to removal of the President. This will have no effect on domestic investors But the International investors may react because they don’t understand our system. This could cause some short term weakness in the Dollar. He made a brief comment about it may help Semi- Conductor Capital Equipment Companies making their product cheaper to export. Over all the gridlock in D.C. = record highs in the stock market. Bob then went on to talk about some of the Boom Bust cycles he has witnessed. Mentioned Nursing home stocks and Computer leasing firms and wondered if some of the Internet stocks would be next??? Mention was made of broadcast.com and the meeting this week with institutional investors not open to the public. The Stock was very volatile and NASDAQ questioned the company about it. The company refused to comment, Bob thought it unusual for NASDAQ to accept this no comment posture. Overall comment on Internet stocks, most are small trades of 100 or 200 shares, a fast market, What if people decide to sell? Will the buyers be there?

1:23 Caller was in SPY and wondered if MDY would be a proxy for the Small cap area? Bob said that lacks broad diversification of the Russell 2000. Recommended 15% MDY and 10% Russell 2000.

1:25 Caller asked about the spring of ’96 and the mania of companies like Netscape and Iomaga and if these companies could have fueled the correction on the over all market? Bob said no and didn’t think today the Internut stocks could fuel a correction of the market either.

1:32 Bob commented on the first week of the year "WOW". Bob said he could recall anything of this magnitude. Talked about AOL and its run up last week due to index funds buying at year end. AOL couldn’t hold up this week down $8. Asked if valuations make sense and again compared to gambling.

1:37 Caller age 46 was 100% in equities and in active passive portfolio. Bob thought he should be 66-75% equities and should make the change now. Reminded everyone to check allocation and make sure it is were they want it to be.

1:42 Caller asked about Pharmaceuticals and the Vanguard health care sector fund. Bob said it is one of his favorite areas but is not cheap and said about 10% of over all portfolio was OK but be patient we are at record highs and could see some ups and downs short term. Caller asked about Dodge & Cox Stock fund? Bob said it was a value fund and all value funds had a rough year in ’98 recommended holding it. Bob compared the Vanguard Index Growth to Index Value in "98. Growth was up 24.6% while the Index value was up 17.5%. Also reminded us to check other thing when selecting funds like Beta and to expect less return on less risky investments.

1:51 Caller asked why Bob was so down on Internet stocks and feared Bob was talking the price down on the sector. Bob said he had about 5-6 million listeners and he could not influence the market and the market is bigger than any one person. Bob said he was just giving the facts and wonder if the caller preferred he cover up what was going on.

1:56 Caller had $100,000 in CDs and wanted to get in the active passive portfolio. Bob’s usual advise was to buy Intentional and DCA US portion.

2:10 Caller bought amazon.com this week. 60 shares @125 =$7500.00 net worth of 500K asked Bob's opinion. Bob had no idea and stated he regarded this as gambling or speculating, has no interest just observing. Bob said he would recommend watch it and setting a price to sell and not letting it go lower with out taking action Said there is no way the be sure a trade will be executed in these stocks in a fast market.

2:21 Bob reported on the Labor Department report of last Friday. Repeating the numbers. Said he expects 2-2.5 % real growth in GDP in ’99. If wrong could be a little more if inflation stays down which is good for growth. Wages were up .05 hour to 12.98 or 3.8% year over year. That is OK because productivity is up so we don’t have to worry about causing inflation. (personal note: Bob mentioned computer services jobs rose 13% no doubt working on Y2K I own shares in a small computer service company)

2:32 Caller asked about an Internet play by owning CSCO LU IBM SUNW we are not seeing the high P/E on these companies. Bob thinks they are premier companies and leaders in their fields. All are richly valued currently and recommended holding if you already own them. Of the group Bob thought SUNW was the was the "cheapest".

2:45 Caller asked about tech stocks as a whole and valuation now vs. Last October with the same fundamentals and wondered if fund managers were driving this run up. Bob thinks it is more Investor physiology, most advisors were bearish last Oct. now it is total euphoria. Bob said in the real world stocks are worth what someone is willing to pay.

2:54 Bob finished the show talking about not getting any Y2K calls and said Y2K was a jobs machine in the service industry. And a brief history of the Bull market of the 90’s and the beginning in ’82. Said we should be thankful to have participated. That’s all she wrote.

-- posted by SteveT

Top 64. Jan 10, 1999 7:30 AM

» Jaybird248 - Great summary, Steve!

I was rehearing tapes of yesterday's show just before reading your summary and am therefore doubly impressed at how well you captured the essence of the message.

Careful now, You just may get volunteered to be "official historian". The job has a lot of status, but not much pay. ;-)

Thanks for this important service!

-- posted by Jaybird248

Top 65. Jan 10, 1999 7:46 AM

» KirkL - Wow!

What a FANTASTIC summary, Steve!

Our asset level is now larger as we can include your summaries in our list.

I find the time the comments were made a great feature as I often tape the shows.

Thank you VERY, VERY much!

So that we may find past weeks summaries easier,
I may move all the thanks that are sure to pour in to another thread later, but for now, i think it is nice to see them here.

Thanks again!

-- posted by KirkL