Moneytalk Bob Brinker Summaries - Information ONLY
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» Kirk - I invite you to post, word for word...
where David advises readers to buy covered calls.I would think you had better things to do with your life than harass David in chat and now here, but be that as it may...
Lets see where he tells readers to buy covered calls. I want to see the evidence before I debate if he actually didn't follow up with the trade you make it out to be.
-- posted by Kirk
» Kirk - Did ya hear what Bill had to say High_Q?
He commented on how little he thought of people that attack others in chat rooms and online hiding behind an alias. He commented that newspapers always check before they publish anonymous letters and will not publish claims unless there is a verified person making the charge.Interesing comment. What do you think?
-- posted by Kirk
» High_IQ - Off Topic Post
Kirk: It seems that your post is off topic. It does not concern Bob Brinker Summaries at all. I think you and this other guy should go to the "Welcome Thread" or create one for this exchange. Your post is even more off topic that mine could ever be considered under this heading. All this leads me to believe that you are singling me out because I pointed out very poor advice on the part of Mr. Korn. And boy was it ever terrible advice!!!-- posted by High_IQ
» JenL_2 - Oct 15/00 MoneyTalk
Today Flannigan just read from this article in 10/15 New York Times (free registration required to access link):Seven Road Maps for the Treacherous Market
By DANNY HAKIM and RIVA D. ATLAS
The battered stock market has transformed from Santa to Scrooge in the course of six months.
The bull market's darlings, technology and other growth stocks, have failed to recover from last April's correction. Dot- coms, in the words of John C. Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Group, are a "walking disaster."
Middle East turmoil, surging oil prices and uncertainty over the presidential election are also making investors cautious.
Many investors who spent the last few years loading up on growth stocks now wonder what to do with them. A posting on a mutual fund message board on Thursday summed up a common question: "Time to snap up those downtrodden bargains?" the writer asked, adding, "Do I really want to stick my money in a burning bank?"
Many savvy money managers have been rewarded for buying when everyone else is selling, but others have outsmarted themselves out of jobs. While technology tumbles, funds that stress value, long punished for shunning technology stocks, are on the upswing. Short-sellers, who make bets that stocks will fall, are also raking in profits.
So should investors abandon technology? Rediscover value? Sit on the sidelines? Seven market experts discussed the implications of the sell-off and what investors should consider next. Here are excerpts from their comments.
JOHN C. BOGLE Founder of the Vanguard Group and creator of the first index funds for retail investors. He is a persistent critic of the growing popularity of sector funds and maintains that a broad-market index fund is the soundest investment.
The times of almost panic in the markets are terrible times to make decisions. You feel so compelled to act quickly, and generally acting quickly is the wrong thing to do. Technology stocks have taken a pretty good-sized hit, and I think people ought to sit back and see what happens and figure out what they do when this settles down, as it will.
There's no predicting how sectors of the market are going to perform. There's also no point in looking at short swings in volatility, which none of us are capable of guessing. I would say, if I was overcommitted to technology or telecommunications or the Internet — which is a walking disaster — I'd wait until the sky clears a little bit. When things settle down, think about a more intelligent strategy."
BARTON M. BIGGS Chairman of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Investment Management. As global strategist and a former hedge fund manager from 1965 to 1973, he is familiar with gyrations in the stock market.
I think we could have a rally in the early part of next week if we get through the weekend without any disasters in the Mideast. But the Nasdaq could go lower, to 2,500, and the S.& P. and Dow could get dragged down, too. I think this is a cyclical, not a secular, bear market. It's not like 1973 or 1974. It's more like 1990; 1973-74 represented the bursting of a major speculative bubble. But the other huge factor was an increase in inflation. I don't see that happening now. We could have a synchronized worldwide recession or an experience like Japan in the early 90's. But that's still relatively unlikely. We have bought a few stocks in the last couple of days.
DAVID TICE Manager of the $200 million Prudent Bear Fund, one of the few mutual funds that sells stocks short in an effort to profit if they decline. The fund returned nearly 25 percent from the beginning of this year through last Thursday.
A lot of people characterize me as just a curmudgeon, but I feel sick that a lot of people will get hurt. We do think the market is going a lot lower. We could see a bump, but I don't think that will last more than two or three days. The Nasdaq 100 could fall by another two-thirds. Cisco is still selling at 19 times sales and 97 times earnings. We are focusing on four areas in technology: PC's, the Internet, telecom handsets and telecom infrastructure. Stocks in those industries cannot justify their current valuations.
WILLIAM H. MILLER III Manager of the $13.8 billion Legg Mason Value Trust, which has beaten the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index in each of the last nine years. Known as a value investor, he has not been afraid to take large positions in growth stocks like America Online.
If you're thinking about investing, buying things at lower prices is better than buying them at higher prices. You've got the best opportunity in a year to buy stocks. You've had a period where the market has just finished going down for five or six weeks in a row and that's a pretty attractive time to invest, in my opinion.
Also, seasonally, it's a good time. The market tends to bottom in September and October. We just had the second 10 percent correction for the year. We've only had two other times in the 90's when we've had two 10 percent corrections, 1990 and 1998. Buying the second of those corrections was a great strategy in both cases. You have historical precedent that this kind of decline wrings out most of the speculation and provides a good entry point.
DAVID ALGER President of Fred Alger Management, a $21 billion investment firm. He has been an aggressive technology investor and manages the 15-month-old Enterprise Internet fund.
I expect a very substantial rally. All of the factors that have been bedeviling us, with the exception of one, are essentially behind us.
They call it the four E's. Energy is the one that is not necessarily behind us — it's really dependent on what goes on in the Middle East. The second is earnings. Obviously, some major bellwether technology stocks have either reported poor earnings or made forecasts that are somewhat disappointing. However, you're starting to have a number of other stocks report very good earnings.
The euro weighed very heavily on third- quarter earnings, but the euro has essentially stabilized. The next factor is the election. The market started turning down at approximately the same time Al Gore surged to a lead in the polls. Now that that's sort of reversed, it remains to be seen whether it will have a positive effect.
TERRANCE ODEAN Assistant professor of finance at the graduate school of management at University of California at Davis. He is an expert on investor psychology.
In times of uncertainty, most investors don't do much of anything. If the market flattens out and doesn't recover, individual investors could start to lose interest. But they probably won't pull money out; they may just put less new money in. People are not quick to mess with their asset allocations. And they are reticent to sell their investments at a loss.
Individuals do not trade very actively in a down market. By 1974, turnover had fallen to one-third of what it was in 1968.
CHARLES HILL Director of research at First Call/Thomson Financial. The company tracks research and earnings estimates by brokerage firms for more than 18,000 companies worldwide.
We've had more than the normal amount of negative earnings warnings this quarter. We've had 416, which is roughly 27 percent ahead of where we were last year at this time. But the real problem could be in the fourth quarter. Analysts have slashed estimates for consumer cyclicals for the third quarter, from 12 percent growth estimated in early July to negative 3 percent currently. But for the fourth quarter, they've only dropped from 15 percent to 7 percent earnings growth. Either consumer cyclical analysts are wrong, or the Fed is not done raising rates.
We had 23.6 percent earnings growth for the S.& P. 500 in the first quarter, the highest we've seen since the fourth quarter of 1993. We said this was unsustainable. We think you will see a substantial reduction in estimates going forward.
He said something to the effect that investors should get their information from a number of resources, but then he told a caller to "just keep listening to Bob, and he will tell you when it's time to buy back into the market"....Jen
-- posted by JenL_2
» Kirk - Stop playing games
I get $15 a month to do this. Cut me some slack. I am trying to make peace and settle this so we can move on.I have no interest in Korn Interpretations. I don't pay for them and don't get a cut from his subscriptions.
He is a member here and complained of you harassing him.
I have no desire to get into a legal game of words with you.
With that said. I invite you to post exactly what he wrote in his interpretation where he gave advice to buy covered calls. I have a copy that he sent me this AM and it does not agree with what you are saying. Who is lying?
-- posted by Kirk
» High_IQ - Nice Trick
Kirk: Yeah, you tell me my post is off topic and then confronted with the facts you bait me to talk about it more. You will probably throw me off for discussing it. I guess this is a censored site. And then you want me to publish some guy's material without his permission so you can kick me off for sure. You have the material you say? Then you post it and stop playing games with me by asking me to post it and telling me I am off topic when others are allowed to be even more off topic! And don't bother posting something that has been revised and play that game. I have the original so I know the truth. Good night!-- posted by High_IQ
» Kirk - I won't kick you off
What if I get David Korn to give permission for you to post the paragraph that you have?What are you worried about? You made a claim. I offer you a forum and you won't get kicked off. Perhaps we'll move it all to another thread, but for now, you are welcome to post it here.
David actually sent me the whole email in question this AM where he made mention of covered calls and said I could post it. I want you to post what you have and to see if there is any difference.
What are you worried about?
You have convinced me that this is on topic and that I was wrong so I invite you to publish here the paragraphs that David tells you to buy covered calls or whatever you claim he said.
-- posted by Kirk
» Kirk - I don't kick people off the site
for being off topic. That is silly.... I just move their post to the JustaBunch Of Idiots thread.
I did kick one guy off long ago for lying about some members and harassing them. He was offered many opportunities to apologize but refused so we cut him loose. I was told to not be so patient next time, but we've been lucky to not have people lie about or harass others here.
-- posted by Kirk
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