Moneytalk Bob Brinker Summaries - Information ONLY
- BillR_5
- Karin
- BillR_5
- JenL_3
- Jaybird248
- BillR_5
- SteveT
- Karin
- JenL_3
- JenL_3
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» JenL_3 - 12/27 Flanagan show
On the Sunday 12/27 show Bill Flanagan kept referring to an article on internet stocks in Money magazine Jan. '99 issue.Read Suzanne Woolley's article, Internet Insanity on-line at Money.com.
......J.L.
-- posted by JenL_3
» Jaybird248 - Thanks, Jen
for posting the link to the Money article. It's a good one.As to offagain, onagain Flannigin?, let's don't rattle the poor guy's cage. He's really a financial planner more than a stock expert. Plus he knows the Trekkers are just waiting to act on BB's advice, and doesn't want to be the trigger in someone else's gun.
Would we rather have reruns?
-- posted by Jaybird248
» BillR_5 - OK, OK
If he's a financial planner, how about taking 5-10 minutes with callers to delve a little deeper into their situation and advise accordingly. At least it would be interesting and educational to listeners. Flanagan sounds like he can't wait for the 3 hours to end. I think they use him because his voice is very similar to Bob's. (No, I wouldn't prefer the "goddess". I think she's gone for good - probably too many complaints)-- posted by BillR_5
» SteveT - Saturday Jan. 2, 1999
I will attempt to summarize Bob’s show in it entirety It seemed this show had a good balance of questions with a little overlap. I think there were only two questions about what the allocation was for Europe, both times repeated his long standing 10% of equities in Europe recommendation.Hour 1 Started with a Happy New Year and a plug for the 13th anniversary show at the end of the month. Bob said it was a fantastic year for the markets. The fourth consecutive year of plus 20% returns in the S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000. Bob said we have had little down side the last 4 years. A few pull backs of less than 10% and one of 19%. Also mention was made of Europe with 98 returns in the mid 20’s and 97 17%,96 26%, and 95 22%. The Euro is expected to add stability to the currency. Also International growth in double digit area. Bob also made a point to say Stay away from Emerging markets, and the far east markets as well as Gold. The Dow Jones and S&P have been up the last 8 years and the NASDAQ up 39.6% for the year were also made mention of. The Russell 2000 was down 3.4%.We have enjoyed a 8 year expansion the in US economy with unemployment at 4.4 , the CPI at 1.5, the 30 treasury at 5.09, and Oil at around $12.00 a barrel. Bob closed the monologue with a suggested resolution to help others by donating to a favorite charity in 99.
Caller #1 asked about the Vanguard Index 500 vs. The Growth Index and why the 500 over growth index/ Bob prefers the 500 for diversity and thinks the future at some point will see the value side of the 500 lead the way and out perform the growth. Also the 500 is less risky than growth index. An employee of one of the big 3 auto makers asked about going over the 4% rule in one stock and Bob saw no reason to do that in that sector.
A question about indicators was asked and Bob said all is OK still dollar cost average. Bob couldn’t help but mention the buying opportunity of this summer and fall.
A caller asked about Intel. Bob said the Internet is helping to drive sales and said hold. Sees the tech run up continuing .
Next question was about the S&P divergence going forward Bob said it will always be the 500 largest companies and is not going to disappear. The caller asked about selling a Mid cap value fund and putting the proceeds in to the Wilshire 5000. Bob said you run the risk of changing at the worst time. End of the first half hour
The second half hour opened with Bob referencing the Jan.11 Forbes article about health care and Pfizer the Company of the year. It mentions the 5 block buster drugs and 6 that are in the works. (One was for obsessive compulsive disorder maybe it should be administered to the permabears haha)
A caller asked about his mothers money who is in poor health and moving her funds from a money market to GNMAs and Bob said yes.
A guy with 1.4 Million asked about putting some stock market funds in to GNMAs and Bob said yes and likes GNMAs for current income. This caller was in Washington State so no State income tax. Other states without Income Taxes are SD, TX NV, WY FL, and AL.
One guy bought SPY at 95 and was wondering if he should hold. Bob said yes new highs are expected in 99. A question about Y2K came up Bob gave his usual reply. It is a great way to sell books and magazine articles. One new idea came up Someone (didn’t catch who) is going to call Quantus Airlines in Australia which is 14 hours ahead of Central Standard Time in the US after they get past 12-31-99 and see how they are doing. ( I wonder if we all do that and plug up the lines we will get a false positive on the Y2K problem?) End of hour #1
Hour 2 A caller who was Maxxed in deferred savings asked about a Vanguard annuity with a 25-30 time horizon? Bob said he could with that amount of time.
Next caller asked about T Rowe Price Science and tech fund got out after Bob said to sell and was wondering if he should get back in because it did better than the S&P in 98. Bob stated you would have to do a risk adjusted return for an accurate comparison. The caller asked about DCA in to that fund and Bob said he would rather be other places. This prompted a comment by our host about some investors thinking it is their birth right to get 20% + every year. Bob stated that returns will regress to the mean 10% and it is smart to plan accordingly.
Next caller, a father with enough $ to pay for his child’s college education in Total Stock market index. Will need in 2 years. Bob said he could take 1 years worth of expenses out now because we are at high levels and try to take out another years funds when we are at a time of strength in the markets. And try to stay about 2 years ahead of when money is needed. Cautioned about keeping most of assets in the market Bob likes the fundamentals in ’99. Mentioned we are in the first leg of the Bull because the high P/Es have driven the markets since last Oct. The second leg will be in ’99 and investors will be willing to pay more for year 2000 earnings. We should see a lot of watermelon smiles. Bob sees favorable interest rates, low inflation, and slow rate of growth in ’99. End of first half of hour #2
Caller asked about calculating year over year returns when DCA. Bob said you need to do a time weighted analysis and this was complex and few investors would be able to do this. A computer program is a way to do this. Later another caller recommended Microsoft Excel. Then a question about which type of account is better for trading stocks and GNMAs. Bob said deferred accounts are good for GNMAs and trading stocks if you are a good trader. If you are not a good trader you loose the tax write off if in a deferred account.
The next call came from a woman asking about borrowing money to invest in the market and her husband wanted to sell stocks to pay off their home mortgage. Bob was not impressed with either idea.
Next caller was a novice and had $40,000 house money needed in a year or less. Bob recommended a Money market fund with check writing. The hour came to a quick end with a question about Price equity income fund for a 67 year old woman Bob advise was to keep it, Also some URLs were given out for Edgar on line, the stock exchanges, and bobbrinker.com and mention of the NASDAQ gold index coming out in ’99. And the last question was from some one asking if they should sell Wells Fargo to invest in a business bob said to hold the stock but he don’t follow that particular company. End of hour #2
Bob opened the final hour talking about the NBA and the salaries lost totaling 1.1 Billion. Also Bob sees no reason why Tax payers should pay for stadiums and arenas for Pro teams, thinks Jesse Ventura was elected as Governor in Minnesota partly because he doesn’t think the public should pay for Pro teams either.
Caller asked about Janus Olympus fund and how Bob came to recommend that fund. Bob said he liked the manager and had decent numbers plus thought it had potential but never dreamed it would do as well as it did this year. Then the caller asked about Reynolds Blue chip growth. Bob had been looking at it. It is apparently not yet available in all states, and is a small fund only 120 million. May not do well if a lot of money gets thrown in a short period of time. Does beat the S&P in 5 year but not 10 year record and has high distributions. (These are some of the things Bob looks at as should we all) Does have a high expense ratio 1.4% much higher than VFINX. End of first half of hour 3. (My finger are getting sore)
The last half hour began with what else Internet mania. Bob mentioned sky mall, on sale, u bid, e bay and AOL being added to the S&P 500. Mary Meeker was quoted again in Baron’s 1-4-99 issue saying she was optimistic long term but would be pleased to see a decline in the first quarter of ’99. It is bound to be a volatile sector with P/Es at infinity.
Caller asked about 4% rule in company he worked for GTE. Bob’s advise was OK to widen out a little, was a blue chip and if caller knew fundamentals and saw no reason to worry. Also asked about AMEX select depositor receipts in the financial sector. Bob still likes VTSMX
The last caller of the day asked how the sentiment indicators were. Bob’s reply was neutral. They have been in the 65% range for several weeks thru the melt up. There was also a discussion of the January effect. Bob says it very well may have begun the Russell 2000 finished the year strong and has done well since Oct. 8th . The other school of thought is we won’t see a turn in small caps until we see a bear market.
Bob sees money flow and rising price trend vs. Large caps as the key to a small cap rally. The simple way to allocate the Wilshire 5000, 74% large 26% small cap. Bob sees little difference between mid and small cap. The median market cap of the mid caps is around 2 billion while the median small cap is about 600 million. The large cap median is 30 billion.
Bob finished the program talking about the 4 year presidential election cycle. Going back 60 years the year before the presidential election the average gain is 15.9%, the only year with double digit returns. That with the fundamentals in place makes ’99 look like another good year. That’s all she wrote
-- posted by SteveT
» JenL_3 - Jan 2, 1999 BB Show
These notes from Dennis, copied over from the BB thread:
Subject: BB's Comments on Janus Olympus Fund Today...
Near the end of today's program, someone called BB to ask about the Janus Olympus fund. Bob said that JO has been on his recommended list for about two years now, and that it returned a whopping 57% in 1998. BB also mentioned that the current fund manager for the Janus 20 fund used to manage JO. The current manager at JO, whose name BB mentioned and escapes me right now has, in BB's opinion, done an outstanding job with JO, and BB continues to recommend JO.
Subject: BB's Comments on Y2K Today.....
BB said that Y2K is the greatest opportunity since UFOs for doom-and-gloomers like Gary North to peddle books, magazines, seminars, lousy investments, etc., and instill fear in the uneducated masses. He also said that the chairman of American Airlines has already said that he is going to call Qantas Airlines in Australia just after midnight January 1, 2000 Australia time, which is some 14 hours ahead of CST in the USA, to see if Qantas' airplanes fell out of the sky as idiots like North predict they will.
I agree with BB. When we wake up the morning of 01/01/2000, electricity, gas, and water will be running just fine. We'll be warm and comfortable, our toilets will flush, and we'll enjoy the college bowl games, just like on any other New Year's Day. And guys like North and Ed Yourdan will wish they had never been born.
Thanks Dennis.....J.L.
-- posted by JenL_3
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