Moneytalk Bob Brinker Summaries - Information ONLY

Top 447. Jun 18, 2000 9:48 AM

» Oaktoad - Barron's subscription

although I enjoy Alan's writing, I ignore his advice.

The only reason that I keep my subscription going is to read Gene Epstein's column. Don't always agree with him, but for those who want a once a week update on things economic it is a good read.

The rest of what is in Barron's can be dug out on the interned pretty easily. God knows there are plenty of articles about how you should buy this stock or that.

-- posted by Oaktoad

Top 448. Jun 18, 2000 9:52 AM

» Oaktoad - Bob B doesn't always listen that well

I don't know how many of you heard the caller that said he was successful day trader.

Bob took it as a personal attack when all the guy wanted to say was that you can make money as a day trader.

He then said that BB has never been a day trader and BB responded by saying that he had managed lot of money..

There is no question that being a day trader is very different than anything BB has ever done. Even his "famous" QQQ call is a 2-4 month affair.

Then BB makes jokes about the guy when it was BB that misunderstood his point.

I have on many occasions wondered what BB does when he listens to some callers. The only talk show host I ever knew took notes as the caller talked. BB doesn't seem to do that as often he will get the facts really wrong. Maybe he is spending too much time thinking about being on the links with BB jr.

-- posted by Oaktoad

Top 449. Jun 18, 2000 9:54 AM

» Mark_J - I do the combo online subscription to Barrons, Wall St.

I do the combo online subscription to Barrons, Wall St. Journal and Smart Money Magazine. I read the online Barrons on the weekend when listening to Bob.

Bob Brinker has often been harsh on Epstein for predicting what the Fed will do, saying "I don't think at this point, even the Fed knows what they're going to do yet."

Lots of opinions. Interesting reading.

-- posted by Mark_J

Top 450. Jun 18, 2000 10:04 AM

» Will_L - Bob like many who make a prediction (in this case a bear market)

Bob like many who make a prediction (in this case a bear market), will quote with respect only those whose opinion makes their prediction plausible. Most contrary information is ignored or the one expressing the contrary thoughts is trashed.
That is why guru's are as often wrong as they are right--including Brinker. He has used several scenarios to make a case for why the market should be plummeting--and if it does not I am sure there will be several more. If someone writes a piece that gives a reason to be bearish, you will hear about it on moneytalk. If someone writes a piece that is more credible but bullish you will not. In the only previous attempt we have from 88-90 his call for a bear market and his changing asset allocation was a failure.

I really think the main problem is that once a person "locks" in on a prediction, they quit looking objectively at the data and are more concerned with being "right" than being informative to their audience.

-- posted by Will_L

Top 451. Jun 18, 2000 3:31 PM

» Rande - Revelation today -- If you missed the call in Jan you should wai

Revelation today -- If you missed the call in Jan you should wait until the S&P gets back to 1527. What a switch from 2/26 when he said if you didn't make the move in Jan you missed the boat since there was no chance the S&P would get back to 1469, let alone 1500 (which, with the S&P in the low 1300s, is when he was also congratulating people who said they went to 100% cash -- unlike now where he again hedges himself by telling people it may not be a good idea, even though he expects the bear market to be really bad after the mythical "counter-trend rally"). Would you make a bet with your portfolio based on advice that gets made up as we go along? At least we can forget about the "long-term timing model" nonsense -- true short-term speculative nature of it all becomes more evident every time he opens his mouth.

-- posted by Rande

Top 452. Jun 18, 2000 3:47 PM

» Will_L - Rande

Todays example is yet the latest in the totally bogus tirade that Brinker has embarked upon. likes to use the Starship analogy--I really think an alien has invaded him and totally changed his personality smile

Actually it is easily explained but today as you mention he changed the bar--to 1527 on the S&P to "get to 40%". Now several questions come to mind. This is after all the guy that said the index had "zero" chance to ever get to 1469 and has now done so 4 times in the over 5 months since his call and has exceeded it by nearly 4 percent. Secondly why if you believe that the market is going DOWN--why go to 40% and not out of the market????

He is totally out of control. Whereas the "model" used to be short term in its abilty to predict the market it is now a "long term" indicator. For months and months he talked about a "secular bear market stretching perhaps 17 years" --he even did so after his call when the market seemed to be going down. Now today he says that if this lasts till 2002 it will be the "mother of all buying opportuinities". He has no idea anymore than any kid in kindergarten today what is going to be happening in the market in 2002. He is simply making up this as he goes along. It is truly sad to watch someone who used to give sound advice--take off on a journey to La-la land.

-- posted by Will_L

Top 453. Jun 18, 2000 4:05 PM

» Will_L - Oh I forgot --the "easy explanation" and the only one that makes

Oh I forgot --the "easy explanation" and the only one that makes sense, is that Brinker is much more concerned with making a name for himself and becoming "somebody" on the investment scene than making money for his subscribers. He wants to call the "bear" but doens't want to commit to going to cash in case he is wrong. This is not about the market--its about "Brinker" joining the "Granvilles and Garzerellis" as household names in the investment world. Yet he keeps his folks in the market--in case he is wrong so he doesn't lose all credibilty if the market moves up. There is simply no other logical answer to his quirky stance.

-- posted by Will_L

Top 454. Jun 18, 2000 4:18 PM

» Kirk - 50:50

what if...
you all know that his portfolios were underperforming but he had a decent record compared to other market timers.

now say odds are reasonable for a pullback of some note, so you play the odds. IF you are right, you become famous. IF you are wrong, say what you said in 1987 - "oops", restart your portfolios and move on and never mention it again... Maybe somebody will remember and you let it drop that you have a new model, but really got most of the returns anyway as you were still in the market with 40% and you just lost a few percentage points after giving 60% vs the S&P500 20% the year before.

Get it... you continue with boring 8 to 10% return as predicted for buy n hold so you risk that to get a home run.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 455. Jun 18, 2000 4:24 PM

» Rande - Will,

Will,

Only a matter of time before Brinker joins Granville, if not in notoriety then at least in irrelevancy.

BTW -- S&P may have been up 4% from 12/31 when it hit its high on 3/24, BUT it was also up 14.6% from its 2/25 low!!! Just as the Nas was up 35.5% from its 1/6 low as of 3/10. Now, why would anyone put any faith in what is clearly a short-term timing strategy (wait to go to cash until the S&P hits 1527, etc.) when it has missed calling this market by a country mile so far.

-- posted by Rande