Moneytalk Bob Brinker Summaries - Information ONLY

Top 387. Dec 4, 1999 7:52 PM

» Karin_ - We need to be very alert now!!! ---

DESPITE ALL THE PREPARATION, midnight Dec. 31 is expected to bring about plenty of computer confusion, if not real electronic meltdowns. Virus writers have decided to take advantage of the flurry of activity and are promising to release several programs designed to wreak havoc Jan. 1 — many even simulating a Y2K bug-related problem.
“Thanks to all the publicity surrounding this, there’s a lot of people out there writing viruses, trying to write the one that does the most damage,” said Sal Viveros, spokesman for Network Associates.
Add that to the fact that many companies’ best information technology workers will be out celebrating, leaving less-experienced professionals at the helm, and you’ve got a prescription for trouble.
“Our researchers are very, very worried about this,” Viveros said. “Network administrators will be looking for Y2K bugs, not viruses.” He said his firm’s virus research lab will be set up “the way a hospital handles big accidents” between Dec. 27 and Jan. 4.

THE FIRST INFECTIONS
“The theory is, ‘We don’t want to risk it. We’ll just close it off and hide in a bunker.’ ”
— SAL VIVEROS
Network Associates This week’s Y2K virus, Mypics.worm, hit about 10 companies on Thursday, according to anti-virus firms. It is the first Y2K virus to be found in the wild and actually infect users, according to David Perry, public education director at Trend Micro.
Mypics.worm comes in the usual way — as an e-mail attachment. But if users are tricked into opening it, the worm instantly changes a victim’s Internet Explorer start page to a personal home page on Geocities. (The home-page switch is not made if the recipient is using a Netscape browser.) If the infection is not removed, on Jan. 1 the host computer’s hard drive will be erased and all data lost.

THE THREAT OVERBLOWN?
Since Mypics was discovered with Y2K nearly a month away, it poses little threat to those who use anti-virus software. In fact, Dan Takata of Data Fellows thinks most Y2K viruses will be released in advance of New Year’s Eve, so he thinks the real threat has been overexaggerated.
“They won’t release it the day before the turnover because then it won’t have time to spread,” he said. “And if they release it now, we’ve got a chance to add it to our definitions. In my opinion, they won’t really be much of a threat.”
But there will be problems, Takata said. He expects some users to be duped into opening ill-intentioned attachments by virus writers who will compose e-mails that look like official Y2K updates.

-- posted by Karin_

Top 388. Dec 5, 1999 6:05 AM

» PeteM - Once again Brinker's opening was excellent.

Once again Brinker's opening was excellent. Bringing together many varied pieces of data form the past couple weeks and distilling it into a cohesive phrase, "Now is the time to be ever vigilant!" I think now is the time to finally order the Markettimer.

-- posted by PeteM

Top 389. Dec 12, 1999 4:59 PM

» JenL_2 - Sunday 12/12 MoneyTalk - AOL a Trading Stock?

During today's MoneyTalk monologue BB read this post about AOL by Trekkie at BB.com. It's copied here with Trekkie's permission:

Author: trekkie in Houston
Date: Dec 12 1999 10:50AM
Msg #: 63225

Andrew,

You are right. I only mentioned AOL and volatility because that was all I was talking about. In fact, the point is so well illustrated with AOL let me state it again in even more detail.

Let us agree that AOL exhibits the following 3 characteristics:

1) extreme volatility

2) large daily trading volume

3) extreme valuation

Let us next consider these observations one at a time in an attempt to evaluate AOL for purchase as: A) A trading vehicle or B) A core investment holding.

1) Extreme volatility.
Extreme volatility is an attractive quality in a stock to be used as a trading vehicle. No price action, no opportunity.

On the other hand, there is no reason to seek out such volatility in a core holding. A core holding should provide the largest opportunity for appreciation on a risk adjusted basis. You yourself say you have been reaping your rewards by moving in and out of the stock. It may be a "core holding" to you because you know how to trade it. This is hardly the conventional definition of a core holding understood by all.

2) High liquidity.
A large daily trading volume is another attractive characteristic of a security you want to trade. It is essential that you be able to enter or exit your position quickly without affecting the market.

A high level of liquidity is not critical for a core holding. In principle, a core holding will be held long term making the conditions of exit relatively less important at the time of purchase.

3) Extreme valuation.
This is a neutral attribute with regards to a security being considered for in and out trading. One might argue that stocks with extreme valuations may exhibit greater volatility than stocks with more reasonable valuations. But volatility is rightly treated as an independent factor.

On the other hand, there is no reason to accept extreme valuation in a core holding unless you are very, very certain the greatly increased risk will carry a commensurate reward. While this is a possiblity it is by no means a certainty.

As far as your personal trading history with AOL, I am glad you have traded it successfully and made a lot of money. Your posts reveal you to be a successful investor, generous with your knowledge. However, I simply don't see the relevance of your trading history with AOL to the issue raised in my post. In fact, your experience confirms the fundamental thesis of the post.

With regards to internet companies in general, which I suspect is the real issue here, there can be no question that significant investment opportunities exist in this sector today and that potentially even better ones will become available in the future. The more difficult question is how can a prudent investor avail him or herself of these opportunities? I doubt that throwing sound investment principles to the wind and joining the stampede will prove successful for many. What I like about Bob is that he never loses sight of this fundamental truth. I guess that is what you gain from a life time of experience in the financial markets or extensive experience in any area of life for that matter.

trekkie

-- posted by JenL_2

Top 390. Dec 13, 1999 7:16 AM

» Rande - Poor timing? See page C1 in today's WSJ for a discussion on ho

Poor timing? See page C1 in today's WSJ for a discussion on how simply buying and holding this "trading stock" for the decade would have earned you the number one return above all others -- nearly 80,000% (vs., by comparison, 7,000% for MSFT). In the end, it's ALL a matter of personal opinion. The numbers don't lie, however.

-- posted by Rande

Top 391. Dec 13, 1999 8:09 AM

» JenL_2 - The Market Past & Future?

OK - Here are some excerpts from the article that Rande mentions in 12/13 WSJ:

Goodbye to the Golden Decade.

Now What Will the '00s Bring?

By E.S. BROWNING

Anyone bold enough to try predicting what will happen to stocks in the next decade ought first to look back at what smart people in 1989 were expecting for the '90s.

Japan's market still was seen as a miracle -- although it was a bubble about to burst. The U.S. was standing on the doorstep of its greatest bull market of the century, but the operative word among U.S. investors was angst.

"In 1989, many people were extremely nervous -- nervous about the economy and nervous about the markets," recalls stock-market bull Abby Joseph Cohen, now of Goldman Sachs, then of Drexel Burnham Lambert.

Deutsche Bank Securities investment strategist Ed Yardeni was predicting Dow 5000 within the next few years, and was being laughed at. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 2753.20 as 1989 ended, investors, still scarred by the 1987 crash, were debating whether it would get to 3000.

The transformation of the U.S. stock market since then has been profound. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has more than quadrupled, the first time it has gained that much in any decade. The hot Nasdaq Composite Index has multiplied in value almost eight times, rising to 3620.24 from 454.82 at the end of 1979.

A new lineup of dazzling stocks has created a breathless stock-market psychology that hasn't been seen since the '60s, or perhaps the '20s. Many stars of the '80s -- Hasbro, Dillards, Liz Claiborne, Limited -- have fizzled. This decade's stars cater to technologies, most obviously the Internet, that barely existed when the decade began.

One obvious conclusion: In the new millennium's first decade, the big story could well be one that almost no one has noticed yet.

As the old millennium ends with remarkably strong stock-index performance, bears warn that there isn't any guarantee that the bubble won't burst in the new decade.

Of the 10 biggest stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, according to Ned Davis Research, the biggest gainer during the '80s was a company that has since fallen under a cloud -- cigarette-maker Philip Morris, whose share price multiplied nine-fold in 10 years.

Today, that advance looks puny. A share of America Online, the top performer among the big 10 stocks of the '90s, has multiplied in value almost 800 times during the decade (on a split-adjusted basis), for a gain of almost 80,000%.

Microsoft has seen its price multiply 70 times over, a gain of more than 7,000%.

Philip Morris's stock, meanwhile, rose just 85% in the decade, far less than many Internet initial stock offerings rise on their first trading day.

Biggest Gainers of the '80s*
By total percent price gain from 12/31/79 to 12/29/89:

Company Name (symbol)... % Gain
1. Circuit City Strs-Carmax Grp (CC)... 8,252
2. Limited Inc (LTD)... 6,100
3. Hasbro Inc (HAS)... 5,582
4. Home Depot Inc (HD)... 4,997
5. Wal Mart Stores Inc (WMT)... 4,032

*Only companies included in the S&P 500

Biggest Gainers of the '90s
By total percent price gain from 12/29/89 or first trade date:

Company Name (symbol)... % Gain
1. America Online Inc (AOL)... 79,629
2. Dell Computer Corp (DELL)... 72,445
3. EMC Corp (EMC)... 69,638
4. Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)... 64,498
5. CMGI Inc (CMGI)... 61,189

Source: Ned Davis Resource

Tech stocks dominate the lists of the decade's strongest stocks. The top-performing financial stock of the '90s? Charles Schwab, the bellwether of online trading. The biggest gainer of all major stocks? America Online, followed by Dell Computer.

As the decade draws to a close, technology-oriented individual investors, many of them trading online and cruising the Internet for ideas, have begun to play a role in the market that rivals that of the pros. The hot-trading individuals send Internet-related initial public stock-offerings soaring. Although some pros worry that Internet-related stocks are forming a giant bubble, and while most ordinary, nontech stocks have been declining in value, the major indexes are continuing to rise, due in large part to a few hot tech stocks.

Of 12 stocks recommended at the end of 1989 by four experts quoted in the Wall Street Journal, three were gold companies -- a defensive investment if there ever was one. Most of the 12 have trailed the market during the decade; the gold stocks actually have lost value. Among today's most actively traded stocks, a surprising number weren't even publicly listed in 1989: Cisco Systems, Yahoo!, America Online, Qualcomm, MCI WorldCom.

Four stocks gained at least 1,000% in both decades: Home Depot, up 5,000% in the '80s and 3,000% in the '90s; Wal-Mart Stores, up 4,000% in the '80s and 1,000% in the '90s; Gap, up 3,700% in the '80s and 2,300% in the '90s; and Computer Associates International, up 1,300% in the '80s and 1,600% in the '90s.

The shift in the basic ways that investors view the market may have been as important as the magnitude of the gains. Fundamental research is out of fashion; simply chasing whatever is hot, which is delicately referred to as "momentum investing" and was considered a goofy idea a decade ago, is in....

How the Biggest Did
Performance of the largest members of the S&P 500 in the 1980s and the 1990s through Dec. 10, 1999

Largest of the '80s...% Gain...80s...90s
Exxon... +263%... +231%
General Electric... +410... +814
IBM... +46... +363
Royal Dutch... +97... +189
Phillip Morris... +825... +85

Largest of the '90s...% Gain 90s
General Electric... +814%
Microsoft... +7,669
Cisco Systems... +64,498
Wal-Mart Stores... +1,028
Lucent Technologies... +951

Source: Ned Davis Resources

Almost no analysts in the '80s foresaw the stock bonanza of the '90s,... but a few did accurately identify the changes that were under way: productivity gains, new technologies, rising profits, falling inflation and lower interest rates. Among the most accurate...were Mr. Yardeni of Deutsche Bank and PaineWebber investment strategist Edward Kerschner.

Goldman Sachs's Ms. Cohen, who accurately predicted a 1990 bear market, soon began issuing similarly bullish reports. "Our numbers, our models, were telling me in the early part of decade that the S&P 500 was as much as 50% undervalued," she recalls.

Can the gains continue?

Ms. Cohen and Mr. Kerschner now consider that major stock indexes have little hope of continuing their strings of 20% annual gains. They have achieved fair value. Future advances, these analysts say, will come from rises in corporate earnings. That means index gains could revert to their past average of a bit more than 7% a year.

For Mr. Kerschner, that means the Dow industrials aren't likely to be much higher than 12500 at the end of next year, up perhaps 12% from here. But, he adds, if you compound 7% gains over the next decade, you still wind up at Dow 25000 in 2010.

Perhaps more important than that, he and others now believe that the stock market's basic nature may have changed, making bear markets less frequent and less severe.

In this view, the business cycle itself has been modified, with more emphasis on information technology and less on boom-bust swings. In the first 40 years after World War II, Mr. Kerschner notes, the U.S. suffered a recession every 4.6 years, on average. "Now, we have had just one in 18 years. You just aren't going to get the big bear markets that were typical of an industrial age, with big inventories and boom-bust cycles."

Ms. Cohen is starting to think that this could be a good time to put money in economies that are going to benefit from the trends that helped the U.S. in the '90s.

"Europe looks like the U.S. at end of 1980s," she says. "There are wonderful opportunities," but because more work still must be done "on profitability and on cost cutting, outsiders can't see it all" yet.

As for Mr. Yardeni, the former raging bull now considers the market wildly overvalued. He has become well-known for his warning that a jolt such as the year-2000 computer glitch could throw us into a recession and a bear market. And then? He expects another big bull market, with Dow 15000 in 2005.

Robert Harrington, co-head of listed block trading at PaineWebber, notes that investors have gone from fearing in 1987 that the overall investment system couldn't continue to work, to thinking in 1999 that stocks have nowhere to go but up.

People "are almost ready to throw in the towel now and say they are going up forever," he says. "We thought that Microsoft's 10-year move was dynamic, and some of these Internet stocks are doing it in 10 weeks. If you can honestly say you predicted that, then I tip my hat to you."

Rollicking, Rocketing Stock Markets

DJIA Gains Per Decade...Begin... End... % Chg
1900s... 66.08... 99.05... 49.89%
1910s... 99.05... 107.23... 8.26
1920s... 107.23... 248.48... 131.73
1930s... 248.48... 150.24... -39.54
1940s... 150.24... 200.13... 33.21
1950s... 200.13... 679.36... 239.46
1960s... 679.36... 800.36... 17.81
1970s... 800.36... 838.74... 4.80
1980s... 838.74... 2753.20... 228.25
1990s... 2753.20... 11224.70... 307.70

Nasdaq Gains Per Decade...Begin... End...% Chg
1970s*... 100... 151.14... 51.14%
1980s... 151.14... 454.82... 200.93
1990s... 454.82... 3620.24... 695.27

* Nasdaq began in 1971
Source: WSJ Statistics

.....Jen

-- posted by JenL_2

Top 392. Dec 18, 1999 8:46 PM

» _Glen - Brinker's year-end vacation

A caller asked on the show, and Bob confirmed that he will be off the show for the next two weekends; he will return January 8.

-- posted by _Glen

http://www.edhoward.com/jack.htm

Top 393. Dec 19, 1999 2:11 PM

» David_Korn - David K's Interpretation of Moneytalk, Educational Links and Ot

David K's Interpretation of Moneytalk, Educational Links and Other Financial Information
for Saturday, December 18, 1999
(mailto:davidk555@earthlink.net)

Preliminary Disclaimer: This is not a substitute for listening to Moneytalk. It is only my interpretation of Moneytalk, along with additional educational information that I include, editorial comments about the market, helpful links and even humorous remarks. If you want to know what was actually said verbatim on Moneytalk, listen to the show live. You can even listen to past Moneytalk shows on the internet via the archives. The web site bobbrinker.com has all the links to the ABC Radio Network Stations that broadcast the show live and via the internet. There is an additional disclaimer at the end.

Market Numbers and Key Economic Data as of the Close of the Market on Friday, December 10, 1999

Dow: 11257.43
Nasdaq: 3753.06
S&P500: 1421.03
30-Yr Bond: 6.377%
U.S. M-1 money supply in week of December 6th: up $2.8 billion
U.S. M-2 money supply in week of December 6th: fell $15.1 billion
U.S. M-3 money supply in week of December 6th: fell $11.0 billion

Opening Monologue: Borrowing from the artist formerly known as Prince, Bob disclosed that being the wild and crazy guy that he is, he is ready to party like it is 1999! As he began the broadcast, Bob was giddy with the holiday spirit and rising stock prices. First, Bob reported that General Electric (NYSE: GE), announced a 3-for-1 stock split and increased their quarterly dividend by 17%! These actions appear to indicate that the company views its potential prospects positively (how's that for alliteration!). Bob noted that this is GE's ninth stock split and its first 3-for-1 split since 1954. Bob pointed out that GE is the one stock that he does not limit his 4% rule to since GE is diversified internally, owning many different businesses. GE is also increasing their stock buy-back by 5 billion dollars. It is the second largest company in market value in the world (behind Microsoft -- which, by the way blew through its previous all time highs this week).

Editorial Comment ("EC"): To understand the success of GE, look no further than its CEO Jack Welch. Called the world's greatest CEO who runs business like a zen master, Jack Welch retires in year 2001 much to the chagrin of GE shareholders. How did he become so successful? Start with the six management rules he coined:

1. Face reality as it is, not as it was or as you wish it to be.
2. Be candid with everyone
3. Don't manage, lead
4. Change before you have to.
5. If you don't have a competitive advantage, don't compete.
6. Control your own destiny, or someone else will.

Jack Welch has written several books. Here is a link to a site that lists all of his books on one page:

http://www.datatrendsoftware.com/jack_we...

Opening Monologue continued: Novellus Sysems (Nasdaq: NVLS) reported after the close of the market on Friday that revenues and profits would exceed Wall Street expectations. Novellus also announced a 3-for-1 stock split. Bob disclosed he is a shareholder of Novellus.

EC#2: Remember last week Bob discussed the fact that if the semi-conductor capital equipment companies starting announcing stock splits, it probably meant that visibility for the near future for the companies was good? Well, KLA Tencore also announced a two-for-one stock split. Many investors are hoping that Applied Materials follows the trend and announces a stock split as well. Applied Materials will announce first quarter financial results on February 15, 2000 after the close of the stock market. Their Annual Meeting of Shareholders is scheduled for March 21, 2000.

Caller #1 Sue: This caller wants to transfer out of some bad annuities to some ones that Bob recommends. Bob likes the Vanguard annuity program and the one offered by TIAA-CREF. Bob had no problem with Sue doing a 1935 tax free exchange into a better annuity.

EC: A 1035 Exchange refers to a tax-free method of exchanging an existing life insurance or annuity policy for a new policy with a different company. The number "1035" refers to a section of that concise and clearly written document known as the Internal Revenue Code. A 1035 exchange allows the contract owner to exchange contracts, while preserving the original policy's tax basis and deferring recognition of gain for federal income tax purposes.

EC#2:If you want more of David K's service, e-mail me at the following: mailto:davidk555@earthlink.net

Disclaimer: I am just a listener to Moneytalk and provide this interpretation on my own volition. I am not associated with ABC Radio Networks, Moneytalk or Bob Brinker and this interpretation is neither sanctioned by, nor written under the auspices of ABC Radio Networks, Moneytalk or Bob Brinker. This e-mail is simply my own interpretation of what is discussed on the show, along with educational information I provide that I think is useful to help better understand financial issues. There are also editorial comments, useful links and contributing editors. I am also a frustrated writer and comic and try to weave humor throughout. You should not rely on any statement made as constituting financial advice.

Join Suite101.com & Win Cash!!! $500 Daily Given Away!
http://www.suite101.com/join.cfm/625

-- posted by David_Korn

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/991214/ny_pr...

Top 394. Dec 24, 1999 9:29 AM

» David_Korn - David K's Interpretation of Moneytalk, Educational Links and Ot

David K's Interpretation of Moneytalk, Educational Links and Other Financial Information
for Sunday, December 19, 1999
(mailto:davidk555@earthlink.net)

Preliminary Disclaimer: This e-mail is not a substitute for listening to Moneytalk. It is only my interpretation of some things discussed on Moneytalk, along with additional educational information that I include, editorial comments about the market, helpful financial links, guest contributors and even humorous remarks. If you want to know what was actually said verbatim on Moneytalk, listen to the show live. You can even listen to past Moneytalk shows on the internet via the archives. The web site bobbrinker.com has all the links to the ABC Radio Network Stations that broadcast the show live and via the internet. There is an additional disclaimer at the end of this e-mail.

Market Numbers and Key Economic Data as of the Close of the Market on Thursday, December 23, 1999

Dow: 11405.76
Nasdaq: 3969.44
S&P500: 1458.34
30-Yr Bond: 6.477%

EXCERPT FROM DAVID K'S E-MAIL

Caller #1 Ethan: This caller holds stocks through a corporation and wanted Bob's advice on how to reallocate his asset allocation while minimizing his taxes. He has $5 million in assets spread over 25 stocks, with one stock (Veritas Software - Nasdaq: VRTS) constituting 20% of his portfolio. Bob recommended he contact a CPA to handle the tax issues and that he prioritize in reducing his exposure to one stock.

EC: Because of the way the word "Veritas" rolled out of Bob's mouth, like a cool peppermint pattie on a hot summer day, makes me think Bob owns the stock. Just a hunch mind you. If he doesn't, perhaps he was just salivating over the great run up in that stock - salivating like you do right before you suck the brains out of a crawfish head (my mother-in-law taught me how to do that). Veritas is an independent supplier of enterprise data storage management solutions, providing advanced storage management software for open system environments. Say what David K? Please dumb that down for me! Sure, I don't even know what I just said. Basically, they are a company that helps other companies save their computer files, back them up and recover them. Now that is something everyone needs today! Perhaps that is why the company's stock has been a stelar performer. If you had $1,800 in January and you invested in Veritas, your shares would be worth $143,000 today! (Veritas is trading in a 52-week range between 18 1/2 to 143).

Caller #4 Ralph: This caller wanted to know Bob's outlook on two stocks, Metricom, Inc. (Nasdaq: MCOM) and Lumenon Innovative Lightwave Technology, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: LUMM). Bob doesn't follow either company. With respect to Metricom, Bob noted the lack of earnings and deduced the stock must be trading on some future perceived value. With respect to Lumenon, the caller said he read about the stock on internet message boards. Bob wisely pointed out that message boards can contain false information that is solely designed to manipulate stock prices.

EC: Lumenon Innovative Lightwave Technology, Inc. designs develops and builds integrated optic devices in the form of compact hybrid glass circuits on silicon chips. (Forget it -- I am not going to even try to guess what that means). Lumenon has traded between $1/4 and $49 this year and dropped fairly significantly this month when a brokerage house issued a sell recommendation in a report suggesting that the company's fundamentals do not support the valuation. Link follows:

Lumenon quickly responded with a press release stating that they thought the stock was undervalued at current levels and represents an attractive buying opportunity. The company also added that they hoped to achieve full Nasdaq listing in January 2000. Link follows:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/991217/j.html

EC#2: Metricom, Inc. (Nasdaq: MCOM) designs, develops and markets wireless network products and services that provide low-cost, easy-to-use data communications that can be used in personal computer and industrial applications. The stock is trading at $81 and has traded in a 52-week range of $4 a share to $104. Although the stock certainly looks more promising that Lumenon, it has negative earnings big time! The company's Ricochet service provides people with internet access, e-mail, and all that good stuff. A caller later in the program, noted that Metricom's two biggest investors are Paul Allen's company and MCI Worldcom. This month, Metricom called for redemption of the Company's Convertible Subordinated Notes due 2003. Link follows:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/991210/ca_metric...

Brinker Comment: On the previous show, Bob called Presidential candidate George Bush an "Empty Suit." Bob noted that he received a lot of angry responses, most of which attacked John McCain. Bob also read from a post to bobbrinker.com from a listener who was pleased that Bob was not afraid to share his political views. Here is a link to that post:

http://208.238.102.36/message.asp?thread...

Bob noted that many people who support Bush point to the fact that John McCain was part of the "Keating Five."

EC: Keating Five: The Keating Five refers to five U.S. Senators (Cranston, DeConcini, Glenn, McCain and Riegle) who were investigated in 1900-1991 by the Senate Ethics Committee for their role in the Savings and Loan debacle. The five Senators collectively received $1.3 million for their campaigns from Charles Keating. Keating operated the failed Lincoln Savings and Loan and allegedly used his contributions to persuade the Senators to thwart investigation of his S&L by federal bank officials. One quote attributed to Keatings is often repeated as it was by Bob today. Here it is in full:

"One question... had to do with whether my financial support in any way influenced several political figures to take up my cause. I want to say in the most forceful way I can: I certainly hope so." -- Charles Keating.

The foregoing EC was taken from the Center for Responsive Politics. Here is a link to the article:

http://www.opensecrets.org/pubs/glossary...

EC Continued: If this topic interests you, then check out an article from the September 21, 1999 Investor's Business Daily entitled: McCain's Finance Reform Flip-Flop. Is Keating 5 Scandal Reason for New Tough Stance? It is reprinted on the net and can be read at the following link:

http://www.ajtoogood.com/ibd092199.htm

Caller #5 Richard: This caller has 6000 shares in Phillip Morris (NYSE: MO) and is worried about it going bankrupt. Bob didn't have much advice as he avoids tobacco stocks completely but noted that their future depends on the outcome of the litigation brought against the company.

EC: Bob decided not to invest in Phillip Morris because of his moral opposition to tobacco companies. The idea of socially responsible investing is gaining acceptance rapidly. Morningstar (which tracks mutual funds) now tracks 70 socially conscious mutual funds compared to 25 in 1993. Indeed, two of Bob's favorite fund families, Vanguard and TIAA-CREF are both planning to offer low-cost socially responsible mutual funds to investors. If this sort of thing is your cup of tea, here is an excellent article that just came out on CBS Marketwatch:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19991...

EC#2: Of course, if this sort of thing ain't your bag, baby, or your name is Austin Powers, then perhaps you might want to chat with others at the Politically Incorrect Network at the following link:

http://www.fanciful.org/networks/pin.htm

Caller #6 Bob: If you own treasury bonds that are held in street name by the broker, are you holdings at risk if a the market crashes or we have a Y2K meltdown? Not if you have SIPC insurance up to the limit of your investments.

EC: The Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC) protects customers of broker-dealers registered with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, thereby promoting confidence in United States securities markets. The protection is against losses caused by the financial failure of the broker-dealer. Though created by the Securities Investor Protection Act, the SIPC is neither a government agency nor a regulatory authority. It is a nonprofit, membership corporation, funded by its member securities broker-dealers. Want to know more? Check out their web site at the following link:

http://www.sipc.org/

*********************************
GUEST CONTRIBUTOR
*********************************
Title: Don't Expect Home Newspaper Delivery Anymore
Author: Broker Ron

I have been around too long to buy into these so called "red hots" nets. Sure, people are making loads of money. Nasdaq up 70%. Stocks go up 20, 30, 40 points a day. I say the odds are better in Vegas. There is little difference between putting your money on Redhat versus Blackjack. (although you will get free drinks with the latter!) Linux hasn't caught on, yet we value the company at 17 billion. Sears is valued at 11 billion. Paa-lease! I will admit, a lot of day traders are making lots of money. Buy why settle for 70% return? In Vegas, if you put your money on red or black on the Roulette wheel, you make 100% if you are right (with no taxes to boot). Wall Street sends you confirmations, Vegas sends you cognac. As a broker, I have several clients who trade every day with me. The strategy? Simply look for a tech stock that is down say 10 to 20 points with no news. We buy and sell it 3 hours later and play for 15 points. The game is sweet. Let me stop and say that this is the clients' game. I simply scope out the board and check the trading patterns. My money is not on the line and I can't talk him out of playing. I win or lose no matter what he does. I warn clients like this with EVERY trade. I constantly remind them about that game we all played in Kindergarten -- musical chairs. When the music stops, you better be near a chair to grab, otherwise you are out. No one has ever said to me "maybe you are right this time" Instead, they always want in! So the game continues in the Net world. Many people will get crushed or destroyed when the music does stop. For now it is "play time." Will the B2B mania continue? I don't think so. The net rotates every four months. First, there were the ISPS which were on fire (AOL, AtHome, Earthlink), then the e-tailers (Amazon) then we found auctions (Ebay, Ubid), then portals (Lycos, Infoseek) then brokers (E-trade, Ameritrade), then security issues (Verisign, Security Dynamics) then infrastructure.... on and on. Today, unquestionably the hottest sector is Business to Business stocks. The craze will be over by February in my opinion Perhaps the next play will be the net advertisers. Wall Street's smart money is either out or getting out and being replaced by unsophisticated investors. I get calls from people who all of sudden want to buy CMGI with their Visa cards. Does that indicate a market top? I THINK SO! For a while, I was unsure; however, I then received a sign whose importance no one can deny. My paperboy quit his paper route last week so he wouldn't miss Maria Bartiroma's pre-market comments. NUFF SAID!!!!!

-Broker Ron.

EC: Thanks Broker Ron! Always entertaining. Personally, I analyze each market using the Maria Bartiromo Market Hairdex. Even when I don't follow market data, as long as I know what Maria's hair is doing, I feel confident predicting the market's trend. Want to learn more? Go to the Maria Bartiromo Market Hairdex site and see for yourself!

http://www.tiac.net/users/kaleberg/maria...

EC#2: If you want to more of David K's service, send an e-mail to:

mailto:davidk555@earthlink.net

Disclaimer: I am just a listener to Moneytalk and provide this service on my own volition. I am not associated with ABC Radio Networks, Moneytalk or Bob Brinker and this service is neither sanctioned by, nor written under the auspices of ABC Radio Networks, Moneytalk or Bob Brinker. This e-mail is simply my own interpretation of some of what is discussed on the show, along with educational information I provide that I think is useful to help better understand financial issues. There are also editorial comments, useful links and contributing editors. I am also a frustrated writer and comic and try to weave humor throughout. You should not rely on any statement made in David K's Interpretation of Moneytalk, Educational Links and Other Financial Information as constituting financial advice.

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-- posted by David_Korn

Top 395. Dec 29, 1999 10:05 PM

» Jonathon - Thanks for the great posts and valuable information.

Thanks for the great posts and valuable information. I wasn't around this weekend. Was Brinker on the air?

-- posted by Jonathon