Moneytalk Bob Brinker Summaries - Information ONLY

Top 137. Feb 28, 1999 7:38 AM

» TONYBRIG - Sat show?In your face?

Here Ya go.

The horrible music didnt start til round 4:07 and I had friends over who just shook their heads. So I said: "What do ya expect
its Bagpipe music."
Hope to hear from you BB says (under his breath maybe he says-please no
Nut calls)
3 commercials and more crappy music.
Talks about profit taking since the Jan high and how some of the
techies had dbl or triple gains and the damage done since then to
the high fliers. Ndx at 2285 which had the greatest exploitation
and how the p/e's were absurd and still high.
Why Dell was 70 times ern's. It was caused by low pe's and the big
Kahuna came and knocked off one of the stool legs causing interest rates to rise. It was technical NIRVANA.
Compaq Computer (who BB touted last week as being better value then
Dell) saw their profits reduced/sales slower then expected. Lost 30%
of their stock value since Jan. Saus Tech NIRVANA not now present.
Dell once untouchable declined 30 pts in short period of time.
Questions is it overreaction to fundamental positions- says
will know in time (of course Bob)
Intel down to 119 and change (did you have to rub it in?)
Now he starts talking bout my favorite subject; the NUT stocks.
He's talking how this Internet area held up very well last week
AOL AMAZON EBAY. Ebay he says up 94. Incredible for once he dont
knock Amazon.
Teacher calls and says he instructs and they talk about p/e ratios
and BB says growth/ernings/mathematical work can be done on it
but no exact science.
Talks then about the S&p 500 which is 24 times est 99 earnings.
Also 4.16 ern yield and growth rate about 7-1/2%.
So he says the market is trading 3-1/2 times the growth rate.
Now he knocks Amazon and mentions 128 stock price with no earnings.
Re-iterates NUT stocks are growing very rapidly and that EBAY
splits 3/1 on Monday. Mentions that as of mid Feb had a 55% short
position did Ebay and a potential for a short squeeze. Talks about
Amazon down 35% off high and mentions Yahoo's high short interest too.
Then a ginnie Mae/Clinton call and b4 that a Ginnie Mae index fund
call.
My Horse Race is coming on so I have action:
Its the feature at Gulfstream "The Gulfstream Hdcp" and I bet on Archers Boy with Mike Smith up who runs second to Behrens (the chalk) So I lose my win bet but hedge off with the triple and beat the race.
Its like buying call options and hedging off with a put.
Back to BB and he's talking bout the ratio of the interest rates to
the S&P's 500 P/E ratio. The key he goes on is the higher the rates
the lower the p/e's. Inverse ratio also applies.
Then ge goes back to Dell and says at 110 it was 73 times est ern.
Now 40 times est 2000 ern's.
More commercials: Melanoex, Math made easy videos, then more Bag-Pipe
music.
He fields a call bout the Bear Mkt and talks about spiders and shorting
the market this way. A neighbor asks what does the STOCKS have to do with BUGS and I explain its not that kind of a spider. He indicates that he would not ride out the Bear market but if one wants to then go ahead.
Mentions that the Nasdaq has gone down 9% and will probably go more
south.
Then he says the online traders are in control of the NUT stocks.
The jump in these stocks have (NUT)in to do with evaluation claims
BB ; and that he feels if they are in more then 20/30 sec. their fingers start itching (FOR A DRINK?) (HOW BOUT A SHRINK).
Come of Bob your supposed to be a PRO dont give us nonsensical
"feelings" (stuff) research the rite STATS then report it correctly.
The slant you give it is (TRASHY) watch CNBC next week early on
every day they are doing a series on "DAY TRADERS" get your facts
together and then report again on it. How bout it?

Then Lojack commercial and ABC talk schedule and Monica talk.
Jim calls and BB he says get your allocation together, and that there was a reflex rally so we had a 2nd chance but that now is serious profit taking going on.
Then more talk bout the NDX down 9% and that it has more to go.
Now I dont get this: He feels the market is going down but said
it is too late to take $ off the table (I dont get it!!!!!!!!!)
did I hear wrongly????????????? WUSSUP with this???????HE DID MENTION THIS TO A CALLER DIDNT HE?????????
OK so then on to 99 will see new highs at least and then on to past that and we will see later or somethin like that.
I'M still spinning about leave it on the table but its going down!!
BB mentions that there is no surplus like we were told.
Women calls and says she is up from 3,000 to 6200 on Gut reaction and
some local paper reading and BB gives her thumbs up on that.
Bloats about her not being on the web and BOBBRINKER.COM and does
some Piping and Showmanship (bout time) he was sleeping on this.
Maybe cause- "I got in his kitchen last week on this?"
More commercails and then more Spider talk (I look at the ceiling and
walls) No bugs!! No W E B S!! Not even a S I T E!!
Then some S&P 500 index fund touting and Wilshire 500 being exemplary and he gave the high stats for a few years.
He brags bout this is the 14th consecutive (no breaks) year on the
flite money talk show?? Did I say it rite?
Then more commercials and talk about MOVIE TICKETS being so high in NY
$9.50 (no pop-corn included)
More commercials ROBUTUSIN (TASTES LIKE CHICKEN) What!!
PMS commercial (Bob please there are Gentlemen listening to your show)
Hayfever talk (thats better)
He's back its around 6:07 and more crappy music, then:
Termlife Insur ad-High income fund Ad.(Is there technology out there to
bleep out the Adds-commercials??) You know play good music til they
are over.
More Monica Ad talk about Barbara Walters and BB insinuates that
Clinton will be out to lunch or something. He's CHUCKLING and talking about where will Clinton go.
(I'm getting "Tired" and need to "Click and Drink" for awhile and
"Dream") Ha my turn to Showoff and Blow-Hard a little.
Then he moves along about inflation defying wisdom and one of the
reasons for the MARKETS upside. The yield came down on friday to 5.57 he goes on and then again about the NDX being 9% below its high.
Mentions that pers. computers and semiconductors are down cause of
lower revenues.
Talks about INTEL and the pentium 3 contraversy imbedded tracking
seriel no. which a hacker can turn back on. That there are Private groups boycotting Intel and talks of stopping shipments and maybe
recalls unless it is securely locked.
More commercials and some Golf talk nonsense.
A guy calls and corners BB bout the NUT stocks and he "spills the
beans" sort of. Now only 4% mind you and keep in mind that they are
volatile or some jazz like that. Everyone knows who the Blue Chips are
now dont they he preaches. He says he cant recommend them though cause it is highly speculative and some kind of talk about now fitting into
valuation model. I think he smokes something for then he comes back
with a ludicrous statement something like.
It is nothing to go up one day 100 pts. Think about that statement.
Could you imagine if it was true! (THE NUT STOCKS)
Another call from a guy who said "We had a bad yr" Only up 1%
BB is astounded and doesnt know how TO field this toO good and
says that no excuse is allowed since the market went up 23%.
(I dont get it how come this guy wasnt monitoring it all along?)
Then more Bag-Pipe music and commercials and then he mentions:
7.75% variable bank with a $88.00 annual fee- Watovia?? Bank or
somesuch. He mentions a credit card for 9.9% (big-deal) with no fee.
More commercials music then he's back to field the last call:
My favorite!!
A guy calls and talks about his 90 year old mother who was touted
on some Gold stocks. BB tells him to go look the guy in the eye
and ask him what is he doing with this and that Gold stock.
Bob played around with that a while and I agreed with him.
(TO ME THE BROKER? SHOULD HAVE BEEN TAKEN OUT SIDE AND SHOT!!)
(Amazing- can you imagine? say it takes 10 more yrs for GOLD to
rebound -why she'll still be young at 100. Plenty of time to
reap the rewards.) (Too bad one cant leave it to ones self for the next life time)
(Man this is work! I dont know if I want to do another one not
a whole segment anyway. Got horses to follow and poetry to write
and the market to watch and a business to watch and whatever else
I create.
So....... hope you enjoyed it and learned something by it.
Oh! The scores I gave the show.
It was good/accurate cept the Day trading nonsense bout 20-30 seconds and itchy fingers. Another no-no to my viewpoint is not to take
it off the table cause its too late; but that its going lower.
I couldnt and still can't comprehend that.
Gave it an eight 8/10.
Suggest your give your support to Suite 101.com and send some people over here. I receive no pay for this or any postings I make to suite 101.com!!!
I like to write about the market and trust that I have entertained
you somewhat and perhaps given you some knowledge and impetus to
keep learning the MARKET. If YOU FEEL its too much IN YOUR FACE.
Then it is!!

THANKS!
BestofLuck!
TonyfromBklyn

-- posted by TONYBRIG

Top 138. Feb 28, 1999 7:53 AM

» ron - Tony- I heard it too! made me think WUSSUP

He feels the market is going down but said
it is too late to take $ off the table (I dont get it!!!!!!!!!)
did I hear wrongly????????????? WUSSUP

I heard that too!!!!!!!!!!

I copied this over from your summary. It made me think WUSSUP with that!!!!!!!! If we are only down 3+ percent in the S&P and he thinks it is going down 10 + percent then why to reaction to the caller the he did? I caught it too and emailed Jen about it to see if she caught it. He usually doesn't waffle and I hope he hasn't changed his mind w/o making it clear. Ron

-- posted by ron

Top 139. Feb 28, 1999 8:40 AM

» RandeS - "Wassup?" -- clarification

A 10%+ correction doesn't call for taking money off the table, given potential tax hit. Assuming long-term appreciation and state taxes, it would have to be a full-fledged bear market to prompt wholesale move to cash (depending on the unrealized gain portion of your portfolio). For tax-deferred accounts, it's another story -- here's where some tactical asset allocation on the fringes can pay off during a correction. But, since we're not in a "frictionless" world given commissions and taxes, it is only reasonable to sit with your asset allocation "where you want it" during a shor-term correction. Look to commit more cash on the downisde.

-- posted by RandeS

Top 140. Feb 28, 1999 4:59 PM

» TONYBRIG - Table $

Rande/All

I listened to Bb's show today mainly to attempt to get clarification
on the "Dont take it off the table" problem. Have read and disagree
with your "friction" theory.
Saw no clarification and more indicators from Bob that we are still
in the corrective stage and that the Techies may go south some more.
However the fact that he told the guy not to take $ off the table
and didnt ask anything about his TAX liability leads me to conclude:
That he is not convinced of the markets short-term direction enough
to go out on a limb either way.
He is safe by saying that dollar cost averaging is more impt then
any buy recommendations. If the market goes in either direction then
he should have a safe haven to fall back on. One can always point to
a MODEL change or some big news and RATIONALIZE the move that way.
have you ever seen a market go in any direction without an
ATTRIBUTION to something? I havent-There is always a culprit to
blame things on.
This is my theory and I am comfortable with it.
Enjoyed the show today Sunday especially the DAY TRADING story and
the plug for the NUT stocks and specifically calling AOL a BLUE CHIP
CO.
BB is reading the script so nice these days.
Best of Luck!
TonyfromBklyn

-- posted by TONYBRIG

Top 141. Feb 28, 1999 8:09 PM

» matttheduck - timing

bb's not a short-term timer, so expecting him to issue a sell call on a 10 percent down move is unrealistic. since 1990, there have been lots of 3, 5, 7 percent "corrections" and he's advised riding them out and waiting for the new highs. it's happened every single time, even with the 19.8 "intermediate term correction" of last summer. also pleased with the aol comment, but it was a "blue chip within the internet group"
it's interesting to me, also, that there is now all this concern over pc sales. it wasn't too long ago that we just came out of a period of concern over pc sales (which rocketed intc from 80 to 140). i wish those darn consumers would make up their minds to just start some indiscriminate, long-term, sustained buying of pcs with pentium 3 chips. i have two kids to get through college!!!

-- posted by matttheduck

Top 142. Feb 28, 1999 8:36 PM

» TONYBRIG - Pc Sales

I firmly believe that it is overdone and just
the latest negative PR. In this upward technological world the public needs computers.
But not every quarter.
The pentium 3 is supposed to be excellent.
This sector was out of favor last week.
Perhaps it is its turn to go back in favor.
Intc splits in April. We have corrected quite
a bit so all is not bad going forward.
I'm hanging in there with the techies.
Can't prove it but suspect manipulation in the
Market.
First the bad-news BLACK PR to get the stock
down then accumulation then GOOD NEWS PR to
blow the stock up.
Thats what I'm looking for.
BestofLuck!
Tony

-- posted by TONYBRIG

Top 143. Mar 1, 1999 5:48 AM

» RandeS - Tony ('da Chain),

Tony ('da Chain),

Don't quite agree with you regarding "attribution" being necessary for market direction. In fact, I'd say the opposite is true. There is a great deal of validity to the "Random Walk" theory and "efficient market hypothesis" wherein the market moves in whatever direction it feels like at any given time, based on the consensus of all investors. Yes, fundamentals can explain the direction over time, but in the short term investors overreact to news, etc. and sometimes make it impossible to put a label on things. Yet, because we can't stand to admit that the world can sometimes be a random place we feel compelled to slap an explanation on things. How many times have we seen the financial press put a glib spin on why the market did what it did on any given day. The incredible thing is one reporter will totally contradict another quite often, using the same set of "facts" to arrive at different conclusions.

-- posted by RandeS

Top 144. Mar 1, 1999 6:06 AM

» Jaybird248 - And they contradict themselves....

Rande, not only do reporters use the same facts to contradict each others, I've heard them do it to themselves.

Example: CNBC's Maria Bartiromo (10 minutes before the bell)

"We expect a strong opening today due to strength in the tech stocks..."

Maria (20 minutes after the opening bell.)

"We're looking at widespread weakness today due to declining tech stocks..."

Even more amazing, she keeps a straight face doing it.

-- posted by Jaybird248

Top 145. Mar 1, 1999 6:52 AM

» RandeS - Corporate PC sales drive much of the market.

Corporate PC sales drive much of the market. 1995-1997 saw extensive corporate purchase programs. May be in a saturation mode until it's time to replace. Many Corps have July 31 fiscal years and may either accelerate purchases prior to 7/31 if they're having a good year, or (more typically) wait until new fiscal year budgets allow for upgrades in Aug. Either way, wouldn't be surprised to see PC demand back on track by late summer with corp and back-to-school buying -- especially with P3 on board. This is a cyclical business, eh?

-- posted by RandeS