Moneytalk Bob Brinker Summaries - Information ONLY

Top 2. Sep 14, 1998 10:44 AM

» Kirk - Sunday Aug 30, 1998 Show To: +Dr. Anthony Keyodo (502 )

Sunday Aug 30, 1998 Show

To: +Dr. Anthony Keyodo (502 )
From: +Justa Werkenstiff
Monday, Aug 31 1998 2:07PM ET
Reply # of 1010

** Sunday Partial Review **

Tony and All: I have not finished listening to the Sunday show, but it looks as though Tony's
summary covers a lot of ground. Brinker did an excellent job this time around (See Saturday
Review) of stating his market stance. I will just add that Brinker seems to see us as a "few
percentage points" from the bottom in my view. Maximum would be 20% as measured by the S & P
given bear market definition.

I believe he is looking for new benchmark lows and, with any luck, we should have them this week.
Right now, the market looks bottomless. Bull markets are marked by quick and violent corrections
and this certainly fits the bill and then some.

A word of caution. Although I respect Brinker's point of view, nobody really knows the bottom in
times of panic. The model does not measure panic. This is panic selling right here. If you were
thinking of adding to positions, you might want to wait for a day with a strong close with a
benchmark in sight.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 3. Sep 14, 1998 10:46 AM

» Kirk - Saturday Sept 5, 1998 Broadcast To: +Justa Werkenstiff (7

Saturday Sept 5, 1998 Broadcast

To: +Justa Werkenstiff (736 )
From: +Justa Werkenstiff
Saturday, Sep 5 1998 9:50PM ET
Reply # of 1010

** Saturday Summary **

Brinker opened his show with a discussion of Greenspan's speech. He called it an "interesting
development." Brinker thought Greenspan was less concerned about inflation and increasingly
more concerned that the global financial situation could affect the US. Brinker said this opens the
door for FRB consideration of easing interest rates in the event that global financial developments
caused the US economy to stall out. Brinker noted that this was a big change for Greenspan who
was more concerned with inflation in July. Brinker called for an immediate lowering of short term
interest rates and noted that such a move would lower borrowing costs all over the world.
Later in the show, Brinker quipped that the possibility of the FRB lowering rates, could be just the
medicine the doctor ordered for investors in terms of breaking the confluence of global economic
an political worries.

Brinker took the focus off of Russia somewhat and emphasized the new worry as Brazil and Latin
America. He noted that 15% of our exports go to Latin America.

He compared this intermediate term correction to that of 1962 where the DOW went down more
than 20% for no other reason than JFK decision to take on the steel industry's attempt to hike the
cost of steel.

He admitted that this correction exceeded his expectations. He said that a bottom would be found
"pretty close" to Monday's low, whatever that means. He made no mention of any new
benchmarks. He did not reiterate his projections for the market averages. Perhaps he will go into
further detail on Sunday as he did last weekend.

Brinker's tone seemed subdued. He certainly was not pounding-the-table bullish as he was on
January 10 and 11th. He did not call this a "buying opportunity" or a "gift horse." He did keep
saying the market was attractive for purchase and thought it was the best time this year to be
putting new money to work.

He noted that the Investors Intelligence reading for this week was the lowest all year with over 50%
of advisors bearish.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 4. Sep 14, 1998 10:48 AM

» Kirk - Aug 8, 1998 To: +Justa Werkenstiff (326 ) From: +Lars

Aug 8, 1998

To: +Justa Werkenstiff (326 )
From: +Lars
Thursday, Aug 27 1998 10:32PM ET
Reply # of 1010

***Late Summary 8/8/98***

I think Bob was at his best during this show. I found it to be one of the most interesting of all time.
The opening monologue was classic Brinker.

In the opening Bob referenced that 50s oldie called the "Queen of the Hop". Bob mentioned that
our favorite bear wasn't even a gleam in her father's eye in the 50s. We are now privileged to see the
folly of the Queen of the Bears, Her Ladyship. As Bob says, "she brings incompetence to a new
galaxy". Her sell signal with Dow 5400 in July 96 was on the exact day of the low for the market in all
of 1996. Bottom line, as we all know, she missed that gift horse. In less than 2 years we have a 9338
high on the Dow or a gain of 74%. I know. I know. Right now there are lots of nervous nellies and
the Dow has declined. The point still stands that she is basically a fool.

I enjoyed Bob's discussion of Ralphie. Ralph "flip-flop" Acompora (aka Ralph I'll make you poorer
as my portfolio manager friend calls him) was obsessed with TV cameras during the previous week.
Bob said that the most dangerous place to be in a market downturn is between Ralph and the TV
camera. How true.

In Bob's opinion the market will rebound. Perhaps this is even more important to review with
current events. Wage inflation is OK. 15 year record oversold advance/decline line. Sufficient
liquidity levels in the market. All in all extremely bullish signals.

One of his most interesting calls came from a gentleman with $4mm in MSFT and INTC stock in
addition to other financial assets. Bob asked him the self-evident question of why don't you
diversify, especially since capital gains tax is 20%. The caller wants a $100,000 of income per year.
Hello. I don't see any problem there. Do you? Why would anyone risk losing such significant
critical mass?

I guess the honor of the biggest jerk to call in while I listened was the woman who asked Bob about
children learning to invest. She tried to set him up imho. Bob mentioned mutual funds as a good
alternative at which time the woman responded that she would have no control over taxes. She
became somewhat obstinate and asked why she shouldn't use individual stocks. Her Dad used to
read the stock tables to her. So what. Obviously it didn't do any good or why did she call Bob. She
was the typical pushy caller Bob has to endure wkend after wkend. I think Bob's call for using
mutual funds was right on the money.

Kirk Lindstrom

Editor: Personal Finance and Investing
Reading List

-- posted by Kirk

Top 5. Sep 14, 1998 10:49 AM

» Kirk - Saturday Sept 12, 1998 Summary To: +Justa Werkenstiff (977

Saturday Sept 12, 1998 Summary

To: +Justa Werkenstiff (977 )
From: +Justa Werkenstiff
Sunday, Sep 13 1998 4:32PM ET
Reply # of 1010

** Saturday Summary **

Any idea that Brinker is in any way subdued was soundly put to rest
today. Brinker is "very excited about the prospects of the market
in 1999." He was very upbeat. Brinker said he was "bullish, bullish, bullish" and even offered a
good natured jab at the bad news bears.

This was a very important week in the market according to Brinker.
Backing and filling took place this past week from the August 31, 1998 low of DOW 7537 and S & P
954. S & P was up 3.6 % for the week. Midcaps were up approximately 3%, samll caps up 2%,
NASDAQ up 5% and Wilshire up 3%. Stabilization in Russia and Brazil were noted. New 52 week
highs were up for the week over the last week. Fewer new 52 week
lows over the previous week. Improved advance / decline noted as
well.

Regarding Starr report, Brinker noted: "Something like that can
only hurt the market only so much and then it can't hurt the market
anyomre.... The market has pretty much digested the Bill Clinton
soap opera at this point." Brinker said the he did not think there
were anymore surprises with the President and he thought that this
was out of the way. He does not believe that the fate of Clinton
will have a significant impact on the course of the stock market
from this point on. He noted the rally on Friday as evidence.

Market is more attractive at this time than at anytime during 1998.

Classic midterm off-presidential year bottom being put in here. We
could have possibly put it in with the August 31 lows. Additional
testing of the general area of the new low cannot be ruled out. But
if that holds together -- and he expects it will -- a bottom will
have been seen close to those lows.

In every case but one in this type of correction, the subsequent
rallies have been over 50%.

Following any probing and testing of the lows, Brinker expects to
see new highs in all the averages as stated previously by the
summmer of 1999 within a one year time frame.

Brinker has a position in Intel again.

Kirk Lindstrom

Editor: Personal Finance and Investing
Reading List

-- posted by Kirk