THREAD FULL!!! Bob_Brinker_Discussion_41,600 is CLOSED!!!!!

Top 1593. Jun 4, 2002 9:39 AM

» ACousins - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Dija: answer this question part

In response to message posted by La_la:

I'm probably wasting my time trying to explain something to someone who thinks Brinker has not yet said we're in a bear market..after spending two years going on and on about it ad nauseum

OK, let's try to stop being simple minded here shall we? Bob said repeatedly year after year that he WOULD NOT RIDE OUT A BEAR MARKET. Therefore, he:

1. was and is a liar?
2. has a longterm model that is still in asset reallocation mode?
3. didn't believe his longterm model because it had failed before?

He can say whatever he wants AFTER THE FACT but he never ACTED ON IT. In fact, he was darn tooting positive that a powerful CTR was going to occur but he never sent out a bulletin that the most powerful bull market in history was over.

Why?

-- posted by ACousins

Top 1594. Jun 4, 2002 10:30 AM

» Will_L - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re Dija wrong again - 2 CTRs, 2 Swings a

In response to message posted by shallam:

"SH: Suppose you had a model (that you believed in) that said no more than 10% upside and more than 20% potential downside."

Great point Shallam, however that get's back to my question I have repeatedly asked here. "Why does the model only give such "percentage guidlines one time in it's 16 year history?" In all of Brinker's yammering on the radio, in the newsletter and under what many believe to be his alias on the net, I see no other occurence when the "model" gave any percentage upside vs. percentage downside advice. Not once. It would be great if it did wouldn't it? Would you and others want to know what it was reading now ? Why would one not share such information.

Now when I asked that question, what I get is that "The percentages were NOT given by the model. The model is only bullish or bearish and Bob saw that the model was bearish and used "other factors" to come up with the percentages and thus the 40/60 asset allocation".

See the "catch 22" that this model hokem creates.

When you ask them why the model only gave a percentage upside and downside one time in it's lifespan, they tell you the model doesn't do that, it is either bearish or bullish.

When you ask "Ok if the model was either bullish or bearish and Brinker said at the time it was not bearish what was it?" The answer will be "The model said that the percentage upside was 5 % and the percentage downside was more than 20%". smile

The fact of the matter is that it's all hubris and made up as he goes along. Isn't it funny that some believe there is some scientific basis and some standard that Brinker applies?

-- posted by Will_L

Top 1595. Jun 4, 2002 10:30 AM

» La_la - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Dija: answer this question p

In response to message posted by ACousins:

You're way beyond simple-minded..you've crossed into childish, trivial, and bitter, and you've been well into all 3 for months.

Bob said repeatedly year after year that he WOULD NOT RIDE OUT A BEAR MARKET.

How stupid to go on and on about that. He decided to go 60/40. Those who chose to follow him, did. No one sane cares that he chose to go that route. He wasn't sure..so what?

-- posted by La_la

Top 1596. Jun 4, 2002 10:37 AM

» Kirk - Re: Model Debate - LaLa and AC

In response to message posted by La_la:

You are both wrong! smile

Statement should read:

" Bob said repeatedly year after year that he WOULD NOT knowingly RIDE OUT A BEAR MARKET."

Neither his model nor his indicators predicted one clearly it seems but he was uncomfortable due to the 5 root causes were in play so made an allocation call. EVERYTHING since then has been a massive CYA or deception to try to make up for the fact his model missed the bear or it predicted one and he didn't act. Then he made matters worse with the QQQ and TEFQX advice.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 1597. Jun 4, 2002 10:45 AM

» La_la - Re: Re: Model Debate - LaLa and AC

In response to message posted by Kirk:

So show me what was wrong in my last message to AC.

-- posted by La_la

Top 1598. Jun 4, 2002 10:50 AM

» Will_L - Re: Re: Re: Model Debate - LaLa and AC

In response to message posted by La_la:

"So show me what was wrong in my last message to AC.

That's pretty easy to do,

You said:
"Author: La_la
Date: June 4, 2002 10:30 AM
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Dija: answer this question p
In response to message posted by ACousins:

"You're way beyond simple-minded..you've crossed into childish, trivial, and bitter, and you've been well into all 3 for months."

Don't know if you are used to talking to people like that, but if you try that in the local coffee shop or bar, you'd pick up your teeth one at a time. I'm guessing then you would consider perhaps what you said was "wrong".

Civility isn't dead till people kill it. Treating people the way you want them to treat you is "right". You were "wrong".

-- posted by Will_L

Top 1599. Jun 4, 2002 10:59 AM

» La_la - Re: Re: Re: Re: Model Debate - LaLa and AC

In response to message posted by Will_L:

No Mr. Rambler..Kirk said I was wrong with the facts concerning Brinker, then proceeded to show where AC was wrong.

And AC has proven himself over and over, as someone who does not deserve any civility. I'm being very kind to him with my comments.

-- posted by La_la

Top 1600. Jun 4, 2002 11:01 AM

» La_la - Re: Re: Re: Re: Model Debate - LaLa and AC

In response to message posted by Will_L:

It's worth repeating..truer words were never spoken here.

"You're way beyond simple-minded..you've crossed into childish, trivial, and bitter, and you've been well into all 3 for months."

I noticed you didn't dispute this.

-- posted by La_la

Top 1601. Jun 4, 2002 11:07 AM

» Kirk - Re: Re: Re: Model Debate - LaLa and AC

In response to message posted by La_la:

It's obvious to me that some people here think it's a huge deal when he changes his mind or views. I don't find it the least bit significant, and would take him much less serious, if he did not.

It IS significant... even more significant is how he covers up his mistakes rather than telling us what he learned... Especially since we all make mistakes and we learn from discussing them.

I would not consider him a good teacher as he does not encourage his pupils to look for his mistakes. This is the first negative trait I observed in looking into him.

-- posted by Kirk