THREAD FULL!!! Bob_Brinker_Discussion_41,600 is CLOSED!!!!!
- ACousins
- ACousins
- JIMMY62
- Kirk
- JIMMY62
- JIMMY62
- Jaybird248
- Will_L
- Fred2000
- Fred2000
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» ACousins - Dija: answer this question part 1
In response to message posted by dija:I no longer subscribe to the Marketimer so I did not see the article you have been quoting for the past many weeks or months.
I've been reading from the Marketimer of January 2001 and it's only been for a week or so. There, he wrote his rationale for the CTR:
- oversold readings and internal divergences
- sentiment
- fed monetary policy
- tax loss selling going away and other calendar-oriented positive readings
These are not just TA readings and, therefore, your contention that the CTR has nothing to do with his longterm model are WRONG. Agreed?
-- posted by ACousins
» ACousins - Dija: answer this question part 2
I also said that the CTR and the CBs are the same except for timeframe. However, this is what he said about the CTR:
"...over the next three to six months"
This was January 2001 which would make the CTR:
October - July or as long as 9 months
Then he said in the September 2001 MT:
"a cyclical bull market with a minimum duration of six-to-twelve months...gains in the Standard and Poor's 500 Index of more than 20%"
CTR: 2-9 months
CB: 6-36 months
THEY OVERLAP AGREED? What is the difference?
-- posted by ACousins
» Kirk - Model Time Frame
In response to message posted by JIMMY62:It would be interesting to go back and do a search through all of David Korn's interpretations where he records what Brinker says is the time frame for his model...
I seem to recall he has had many callers over the years that ask his predictions for the market over various periods... I'd sure like to know when his model gained the ability to see that the market would not make a new high for years and years... which is the definition of a secular bear.
BTW, some of us that follow a more balanced approached to investing look at the tech peak as only part of the market and might look at the broader market rather than a large cap growth index that is weighted by market cap and thus was skewed. There are a great many people out there that have made money in this market.... unless they inherited and invested in a lump sum the day the market peaked... they are doing quite well over time.
It might be an "eye opener" even for someone like dija.
-- posted by Kirk
» JIMMY62 - WHY ONLY THE ONE TIME IN HISTORY
In response to message posted by Will_L:WHY ONLY THE ONE TIME IN HISTORY, did it give such a "precise" (meaning exact) range?
The modified model spoke in January 2000 and has not spoken again.
In an ongoing bull or bear market the model does not speak.
Hence, nothing for for almost 2 1/2 years. Hence, nothing during the 1990's after the model was modified.
He claimed in 98 his model was designed to come within 3% of a market low.
Why never again have we heard percentage upside vs percentage downside? It's been two years.
The model only tells of market impending bull and bear markets.
And the change in market direction has to be 20% or more to trigger the model.
The model may miss a top a bit, by as much as 5%,
or a bottom, by as much as 3%.
When the model speaks again,
the S&P 500 will be within 3% of a bottom, going forward,
and a 20% or more increase will be ahead.
-- posted by JIMMY62
» JIMMY62 - Re: Model Time Frame
In response to message posted by Kirk:It would be interesting to go back and do a search through all of David Korn's interpretations where he records what Brinker says is the time frame for his model...
I do not believe Bob has limited the time during which a long term model's prediction could come about.
He abandoned the call of the axillary timing model in about 4 months.
I seem to recall he has had many callers over the years that ask his predictions for the market over various periods... I'd sure like to know when his model gained the ability to see that the market would not make a new high for years and years... which is the definition of a secular bear.
I do not believe Bob claims the model makes calls such as you describe. Those are made by the dear boy himself after his analysis of the root causes of this or that.
-- posted by JIMMY62
» Jaybird248 - K.I.S.S.
Anyone ever consider that BB's "Great Call" of January, 2000 might have been based in part on the simple notion that the millenium with all its hype had passed, and that a bull that had run 18 years with off-the-chart valuations just had to end sometime soon. Therefore why not pick that time to pull out?It's not like he guessed it on the crowning day. He in fact missed the top by three full months and about 25% additional upside.
-- posted by Jaybird248
-- posted by Will_L
» Fred2000 - Re: Duration
In response to message posted by Kirk:"duration is the change in value of a fixed income security that will result from a 1% change in interest rates."
Kirk... You know that Raz will accuse you wanting to be Bob.
dija will insist that this is one of those times that Bob gave bad advice but otherwise, he's perfect.
winkleman will insist he knew it all the time and that he won another one.
There's no winning with idiots.
-- posted by Fred2000
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