India - Pakistan Crisis

Top 166. Mar 10, 2002 5:40 PM

» BPyles - Pakistan turmoil

Jen: Thanks for all you have posted last few days on this topic. Have read each and every one (well, maybe not all yet on Frontline). Agree, the Daniel Pearl case will unravel yet and just might be what brings government down. Read where Bhutto is returning in time to run in the upcoming elections. Will she be any competetion?

Couple articles found today.
---------------
Pakistan to expel Arab, Afghan students: NYTimes (copied from Dawn, Pakistan)

By Masood Haider

NEW YORK, March 9: Pakistan is preparing to expel thousands of Arab, Afghan
and other foreign students studying at religious schools across the country out of
concern that their presence might be a step toward possible militant activities the
New York Times said quoting Pakistan government officials.

The measure is expected to lead to the expulsion of at least 300 Arabs and
Afghans in what the Pakistani officials described as a first wave. But within a
few months, Pakistani officials told the Times, they expected to reduce the
number of Arab students in Pakistan by at least 7,000, from more than about
17,000 today.

The plan would also bar new enrolment of foreign students altogether. To
continue studies at a Pakistani religious school, each of the more than 36,000
current foreign students must obtain a formal endorsement from his home
government, according to an interior ministry plan described by the officials.

The plan is to be presented next week to President Pervez Musharraf, the Times
said.

Pakistan is home to more than 6,000 religious institutions, with a total number of
students estimated at more than 600,000. In addition to some 17,000 Arabs
students, these include more than 16,000 Afghans and more that 1,000 other
foreigners, senior Pakistani officials told the paper.

The current plan stems from a promise made in a Jan. 12 speech by General
Musharraf, who said that foreign students at the Madaris who lacked valid visas
or other documents would be deported by March 23 unless they obtained the
necessary endorsement of their home countries.

The officials said that the number of expulsions was likely to soar in the next few
months as checks on the students' backgrounds were completed, the paper said.
At the same time, Pakistan's government intends to release at least 800 of the
2,000 Pakistani militants arrested in January as part of a crackdown against
extremist groups, the officials told the paper.
------------------------------
Bhutto will return to Pakistan and be PM again: party official -
DUBAI, March 10: Benazir Bhutto will end a four-year self-imposed exile before October polls
to lead
Pakistan People's Party (PPP) to a sweeping victory, a PPP official predicted today. "Mrs.
Bhutto will return to Pakistan come what may" once the ban on political activities in force
since President Pervez Musharraf's 1999 coup has been lifted, Qasim Zia, PPP president in
Punjab province, told AFP during a brief visit to Dubai. Zia said the ex-prime minister, who
spends most of her time in the Gulf emirate, would go home at a date set by the PPP's
central executive committee. (AFP) (Posted @ 23:00 PST)

-- posted by BPyles

Top 167. Mar 10, 2002 9:10 PM

» JenL_2 - Re: India - Pakistan Turmoil

In response to message posted by BPyles:

Another Daniel Pearl article from 1/18 WSJAsia - he was abducted on the 1/23.

India, Pakistan Can't Risk Long Row
---
Economic Difficulties May Help Bring Countries Back From the Brink

By Eric Bellman and Daniel Pearl

01/18/2002
The Asian Wall Street Journal
Page 1

NEW DELHI -- With war tensions between India and Pakistan the highest they have been in decades, economists say neither can afford a long, drawn-out conflict.

As U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell tours South Asia promoting peace, there are more than diplomatic pressures on the two nuclear powers to get along. Economic pressures may help bring the countries back from the brink, because they can't risk intensifying the conflict without damaging their economies.

Even if no shots were fired, the cost to India and Pakistan of having their best boys and bombs on the border is hundreds of millions of dollars that both countries would rather spend on improving the lives of their citizens. The costs of their respective buildups thus far have been manageable. However, if the standoff goes on long or ignites into even limited fighting it could derail growth in both countries, economists say.

"Both India and Pakistan cannot afford to have a long war at this time," said Abusaleh Shariff, a chief economist at the National Council of Applied Economic Research in New Delhi. "Long-term wars ruin economies."

The finance ministers in both counties have said their economies could absorb the costs of the showdown and their governments are ready to spend whatever is needed. But economists say that India and Pakistan both need all the money they can get to build their infrastructures and keep their economies growing.

"All increases in military spending are bad for government budgets and bad for the economy," says Mahesh Vyas, analyst at the Center for Monitoring the Indian Economy in Bombay.

Investors so far are betting that the conflict will end soon and the damage to the economies of India and Pakistan will be minimal. Benchmark stock indexes in Karachi and Bombay have rebounded after sliding 8% as tensions heated up last month. The Indian market gained 1% and the Pakistan market 4% this week, following the speech by Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf pledging measures to crack down on extremists and ease tension with India.

Last month, India started massing troops and weapons along its 2,880-kilometer border with Pakistan after a terrorist attack on India's Parliament left 14 people dead, including the five attackers. New Delhi blames the attack on Pakistan-based Muslim militants and it is demanding Pakistan close down the groups.

War is usually bad for economies because higher government spending can lead to rising interest rates and taxes, while instability can pummel foreign investment, currencies, exports and growth. Economists on both sides are confident that this crisis won't escalate into an economy-crippling conflict. Still, they say if the standoff goes on for more than three more months or there was a limited ground war it would slow growth in the region. A complete war all along their border would lead to a contraction in the economies while a nuclear exchange would affect global growth, analysts say.

Neither country openly discusses its defense spending so it is hard to gauge the costs. Still, analysts estimate that with a total of as many as one million people moved to both sides of the border, along with military trucks, tanks and jets, costs may already amount to as much as $150 million for Pakistan and $200 million for India. "It is going to cost a hell of a lot of money but it is very difficult to calculate how much," says Rahul Bedi, who writes about the Indian military for Jane's Defence weekly. "India has the money to fight a limited war but it would set back its development considerably."

Still, economists say India is better prepared to weather a long confrontation because it might not have to raise taxes or borrow money -- which could lift interest rates -- to feed the front. It could raise money easily by cashing in on the more than $2 billion in state-owned companies that it has been planning to privatize this year.

"If there is a war you can be sure that the government of India will very actively promote privatization," of companies such as India's international phone service Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd., says Mr. Shariff, the New Delhi economist. He says the economy can survive another two months' deployment before India will need to sell its national assets.

An indirect cost for India could be a slowdown in orders for its software companies. Most of the customers of software companies like Infosys Technologies Ltd. are in the U.S. Clients may delay visits to India to inspect facilities and put off orders until they are confident stability has returned to the region.

Economists predict that the Indian economy will grow more than 5% in the year ending March. They say that if the conflict spills over into the next fiscal year, there could be a slowdown. India's last battle with Pakistan, the Kargil conflict of 1999, lasted less than three months and didn't slow growth.

Pakistan is more vulnerable to the economic costs of conflict. Since the attacks on Afghanistan began it has experienced a sharp decline in its most important export, textiles. A conflagration with India would scare away more customers. Textile exports to the U.S. have already plunged 60%.

"So far, we've noticed the reaction from U.S. buyers has not been replicated by European buyers," says Sakib Sherani, chief economist at ABN-Amro Bank in Islamabad. "But if there is a conflict between India and Pakistan we can expect the behavior to be replicated."

Pakistan's national finances are in worse shape than India's as it is dependent on international aid and loans. While it has been able to reschedule loans and get millions in aid as reward for its part in the U.S. war on terrorism, it would still have more difficulty than India raising money at home and abroad to finance a prolonged war.

Pakistan lowered its growth forecast for the year ending in June to 3.7% from 4%. Analysts say a prolonged standoff with India could wipe out growth all together.

To be sure, most analysts and economists say they haven't been calculating the potential damage to the economies of India and Pakistan because they are doubtful the conflict will blow up into anything more than bluffing along the border.

Pakistan doesn't want to talk about the costs of the conflict because it is hoping for more aid by blaming the conflict in Afghanistan that is hurting its exports and growth.

India doesn't want to talk about the costs, because it needs pretend it has no reluctance to go to war.

"Most people understand that there is a huge amount more noise being generated than actual expenditure," says John Band, head of ASK-Raymond James in Bombay. "The Indians have to make the Pakistanis believe they are on the threshold of war before Pakistan will do what India wants," but India does not plan to get involved in a long, expensive war, he says.

talk about reporting on "sensitive issues" on the front page of the Asian Wall Street Journal....and shorter versions of the same article were published in the European and U.S. Wall Street Journal .....Jen

-- posted by JenL_2

Top 168. Mar 10, 2002 9:50 PM

» JenL_2 - Sultan Dr. Bashiruddin Mahmood

Just posted this one to the "Terrorist Attack - Info" thread:

In response to message posted by Steven_Russell:

Steven - don't know where your latest update is but this is from your Top al Qaeda body count, Dec 15,01:

14 Sultan Bashiruddin Mahmood
--------------------- disappeared from Kabul, November 2001, Pakistani nuclear scientist whose Kabul house was used for studying anthrax and helium
One of Pakistan's leading nuclear scientists. Mahmood had founded and became president of a Pakistani aid group, The Foundation for Construction, after retiring from his job at Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission in 1998. His Kabul house was a shabby, two-story villa located in a quiet residential area of Kabul favored by a number of international charities. The house is next to the British charity Save the Children and a few doors from the offices of the United Nations refugee agency. Neighbors say the house had been occupied by three Pakistani men and their wives and children, and they said they had no reason to believe the occupants were engaged in anything other than charitable work. Those living in the house left abruptly after Sept. 11, leaving behind one man. In October 2001, Pakistani authorities detained Mahmood along with another retired nuclear scientist. Mahmood was questioned about his links with the Taliban amid concerns that he may have shared Pakistan's nuclear secrets with Osama bin Laden. He denied ever meeting bin Laden and insisted that his frequent contacts with the Taliban were due to his involvement in the delivery of humanitarian aid. No evidence of wrongdoing was found. The one man left residing at Mahmood's Kabul house was later joined by a number of Pakistani fighters, local guards said. They all left on the night the Taliban fled Kabul, November 12, 2001. Northern Alliance fighters visited the house soon after that and ordered local residents not to go inside, said the guards, who added that three foreigners wearing masks and gloves visited the house a few days later and removed boxes of materials. The men spoke English and had a document from local commanders giving them permission to remove the material, said a guard who sits outside a house across the street. In November 2001 after the discoveries at the house, Mahmood and his associate, Abdul Majeed, were detained for questioning again, although Pakistan still insists it has found no evidence that he was involved in wrongdoing. "There is no linkage established at all with any anthrax-related capability," said a Pakistani government spokesman, Maj. Gen. Rashid Qureshi. Pakistan also has denied Pakistani newspaper reports that Mahmood had been involved in the development of Pakistan's nuclear bomb. Nothing was found at the house to suggest any link to nuclear weapons or efforts to acquire nuclear expertise, nor was there anything directly linking the house to bin Laden, apart from a newsletter published by Al Qaeda. But items found at the house since the Taliban fled Kabul on November 12, 2001 suggest that Mahmood's Islamabad-based "charity" Foundation for Construction may have been interested in something other than helping Afghans rebuild their country. The house contained sheaves of disturbing documents. These include the results of a massive Internet search on anthrax vaccines, and a report titled "Bacteria: What You Need to Know." Investigators also found a report titled "Iraqi Anthrax Troops," and a New York Times article on Plum Island, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's animal-disease center near the north fork of Long Island. The Plum Island center does research to help guard the United States "against catastrophic economic losses caused by foreign animal disease agents accidentally or deliberately introduced into the U.S.," its Web site explains. Also at the house in Kabul, piles of documents containing detailed information about the use of anthrax in biological warfare, boxes containing gas masks and diagrams suggestive of a plan to use a helium-filled balloon to disperse anthrax across a wide area were found in the house by journalists. But someone either living at the house or visiting it had taken a close interest in anthrax and in studying ways to deliver biological weapons. In one upstairs room, there were dozens of copies of documents about anthrax, including details about the U.S. military's vaccination program downloaded from a Defense Department Web site and other Defense Department documents relating to anthrax. One, titled "The bacteria: what you need to know" contains the statement that anthrax spores "can easily be spread in the air by missiles, rockets, artillery, aerial bombs and sprays." There were 10 copies each of most of the documents, suggesting that a seminar or perhaps a brainstorming session had taken place. On the floor, there was what appeared to be a disassembled rocket alongside a canister labeled "helium," as well as two bags of powder, which journalists have refrained from inspecting. An elaborate diagram on a white board depicts what appears to be a balloon rising at various trajectories, alongside a fighter jet apparently shooting at the balloon. Beside the jet are the words, "You are dead, bang," which appear to have been added later because they are written in a different color. There are also pictures of ground missiles linked by lines to the balloon. Mathematical calculations indicate the height at which the balloon would fly, the distance from which it would be shot down and the area over which its contents would be dispersed. Next to one of the balloons is the word "polystyrene"; next to another is the word "cyanide." There is no mention of anthrax on the diagram, but the impression is of a plan to deliver biological agents by packing them into the gondola of a balloon that would be shot down by a jet or a missile. Loose sheets of paper containing scribbles of missiles and balloons similar to those on the board were found among the documents, suggesting that those at a possible seminar had been taking notes or elaborating on the calculations. The photocopied documents are faded, suggesting they have been there awhile. Western diplomats in Kabul, speaking on condition of anonymity, say that they have no reason to believe the evidence was planted but that they had not studied it. "We know there were a lot of houses like this, and many that have been found by journalists in very similar circumstances," one diplomat said. Investigators know Al Qaeda had been trying to acquire weapons of mass destruction, he said. "It's a question of whether they have the availability, and there's no evidence yet that they do have the availability or the capability. The evidence is inconclusive." As of December 2, most of the documents found have been removed by journalists, and at least some have been turned over to Western diplomats.

Daniel Pearl reported on Dr. Bashiruddin also in 12/26 WSJAsia - he was abducted on 1/23:

Pakistan Is Tied to Group It Wants Curbed

Government Has Links to Activities of Scientist Accused of Discussing Nuclear Weapons With bin Laden

Defenders Say Man Was Trying to Help Afghanistan's Economy, Not Pass Secrets

By Daniel Pearl and Steve LeVine

12/26/2001
The Asian Wall Street Journal
Page 4

ISLAMABAD -- Pakistan has pledged to clamp down on a humanitarian group headed by a nuclear scientist, but the military government also has ties to the organization, which is accused of sharing nuclear information with terrorists.

The organization, Ummah Tameer-e-Nau, used a former military officer to pursue a large agricultural project near Kandahar, Afghanistan, according to three people involved in the venture. The officer recently obtained a senior position in a regional commission aimed at combating government corruption.

Moreover, a former head of Pakistan's military intelligence service, Gen. Hamid Gul, says he was UTN's "honorary patron" and encouraged Pakistani businessmen to invest in UTN. Gen. Gul saw the nuclear scientist, Dr. Bashiruddin Mahmoud, in Kabul, the Afghan capital, in August -- the same month Dr. Mahmoud is alleged to have discussed nuclear weapons with Osama bin Laden, whom the U.S. blames for the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

President George W. Bush on Thursday ordered UTN's assets frozen, saying the group "claims to serve the hungry and needy of Afghanistan" but "provided information about nuclear weapons to al Qaeda," Mr. bin Laden's organization. A Pakistani foreign ministry spokesman later said Pakistan also would freeze UTN's assets.

Pakistan's military government said it originally detained Dr. Mahmoud on Oct. 23 after the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency raised questions about his visits to Afghanistan.

Still, UTN's connections with former military officials suggest Pakistan had been monitoring Dr. Mahmoud and the Afghanistan trips for some time. "If he was a nuclear scientist on the loose, why was the Pakistan government not aware of it?" said Gen. Gul, who maintains contacts with some active members of the Inter-Services Intelligence directorate. Gen. Gul said he never heard of any discussions between Dr. Mahmoud and Mr. bin Laden.

One former ISI colonel said the intelligence organization was always aware of UTN's activities and had encouraged Dr. Mahmoud's Afghanistan trips. He said the ISI learned last year that Dr. Mahmoud had recently discussed nuclear matters with Mr. bin Laden, and Dr. Mahmoud agreed not to do so again.

The colonel's account couldn't be verified. Dr. Mahmoud, released from custody Dec. 13, declined to be interviewed. So did his son, Shahzad, who accompanied his father on a May trip to Afghanistan and was trying to establish a development bank in Kabul.

Dr. Mahmoud's defenders have insisted that he did nothing wrong but was simply a fervent Muslim who wanted to buoy the Afghan economy. And the idea that UTN served merely as a cover for Dr. Mahmoud to pass nuclear secrets seems simplistic at best.

One Pakistani military analyst said it was inconceivable that a nuclear scientist would travel to Afghanistan without getting clearance from Pakistani officials and being debriefed each time. Pakistan maintains a strict watch on many of its nuclear scientists, using a special arm of the Army's general headquarters to monitor them even after retirement.

Pakistani analysts doubt Dr. Mahmoud, or a second nuclear scientist associated with UTN, had the expertise to deliver nuclear weapons plans to Mr. bin Laden. Dr. Mahmoud, 61 years old, headed Pakistan's nuclear power program and was forced to retire in 1998, when he spoke out against the idea of Pakistan signing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

Dr. Mahmoud, who advocated nuclear explosions for the building of dams and reservoirs, was a scientific gadfly. In a 1997 book, he linked events such as the dropping of atomic bombs on Japan during World War II to the seasonal effects of solar radiation on world leaders' emotions. He later said he wrote to Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf asking him not to be swayed by the "catalytic effect of solar radiation," which Dr. Mahmoud feared could lead to chemical or atomic warfare.

Dr. Mahmoud's religious mentor was Dr. Israr Ahmed, a Lahore-based political and religious leader who has called for strict implementation of Islamic law and strongly backed Afghanistan's Taliban regime, which sheltered Mr. bin Laden. Dr. Ahmed, interviewed at his religious academy, said Dr. Mahmoud "wanted to help Afghanistan, not al Qaeda."

In a Sept. 23 interview, Dr. Mahmoud said he had learned of Mr. bin Laden through charity work. "Osama bin Laden, as I came to know, was helping in different places, renovating schools, opening orphan houses, (helping with) rehabilitation of widows," he said, but he stopped short of saying the two had met.

Dr. Mahmoud didn't hide his connections with Taliban officials. A video he commissioned of a trip by UTN directors to Kabul in May shows Dr. Mahmoud, clad in a white turban, and other directors of UTN sitting across a table at a hotel from Taliban bureaucrats. According to an itinerary, the delegation spoke with the Taliban about the development of oil and natural gas fields, and iron, copper and coal mines.

Today, a UTN plant in Kandahar produces 200 tons of flour a day, said a relative of Dr. Mahmoud. But other projects remained on the drawing board.

UTN's members and associates lost money on the planned farming venture, in a village called Dasht-e-Zeray, north of Kandahar. It was structured as a $400,000 Islamic investment, promising $250 in profit over three years for every $1,000 share purchased, according to a brochure promoting the investment. Ten percent of profits were to go to UTN's charitable activities.

Hashim Sheikh, a Karachi philanthropist who accompanied Dr. Mahmoud on the May trip, said that he later persuaded several friends to invest but that the deal fell victim to the war in Afghanistan. Mr. Sheikh said the man who explained the farming venture to the trip's delegates was Brig. Gen. Mohammed Ali, a UTN director. Gen. Gul and a third man, Mohammed Hayat, who was consulted on how to level the land, both confirmed that Gen. Ali was in charge of the project, and a UTN document identifies him as a director.

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....more "very sensitive issues"!.....Jen

-- posted by JenL_2

http://www.ciriello.com/pw/46massud.html...

Top 169. Mar 11, 2002 9:27 AM

» JenL_2 - Re: Holy War, Inc.

In response to message posted by JenL_2:

Betty - Thanks for bringing up the topic of "Holy War, Inc.". We as US citizens need to realize the Pak ISI - US CIA role in creating the Taliban....that was then and this is now - and we have to go forward...but we still need to discuss & understand our own culpability so that in the future hopefully we can avoid making the same mistakes and keep history from repeating itself. This discussion doesn't necessarily belong on the "Pak-India" thread - but since it involves the Pak ISI - this is as good a place as any to talk about this unholy alliance.

First I found this 1998 message to the U.S. Hearing on Afghanistan from Ahmad Shah Massoud, who would have been the leader of the Northern Alliance, but was assasinated just prior to 9/11:

October 8, 1998

From Ahmad Shah Massoud Defence Minister, Islamic State of Afghanistan

Through the United States SenateCommittee on Foreign Relations

Hearing on Events in Afghanistan

In the name of God

Mr. Chairman, honorable representatives of the people of the United States of America,

I send this message to you today on behalf of the freedom and peace-loving people of Afghanistan, the Mujahedeen freedom fighters who resisted and defeated Soviet communism, the men and women who are still resisting oppression and foreign hegemony and, in the name of more than one and a half million Afghan martyrs who sacrificed their lives to uphold some of the same values and ideals shared by most Americans and Afghans alike. This is a crucial and unique moment in the history of Afghanistan and the world, a time when Afghanistan has crossed yet another threshold and is entering a new stage of struggle and resistance for its survival as a free nation and independent state.

I have spent the past 20 years, most of my youth and adult life, alongside my compatriots, at the service of the Afghan nation, fighting an uphill battle to preserve our freedom, independence, right to self-determination and dignity. Afghans fought for God and country, sometime alone, at other times with the support of the international community. Against all odds, we, meaning the free world and Afghans, halted and checkmated Soviet expansionism a decade ago. But the embattled people of my country did not savor the fruits of victory. Instead they were thrust in a whirlwind of foreign intrigue, deception, great-gamesmanship and internal strife. Our country and our noble people were brutalized, the victims of misplaced greed, hegemonic designs and ignorance.

We Afghans erred too. Our shortcomings were as a result of political innocence, inexperience, vulnerability, victimization, bickering and inflated egos. But by no means does this justify what some of our so-called Cold War allies did to undermine this just victory and unleash their diabolical plans to destroy and subjugate Afghanistan.

Today, the world clearly sees and feels the results of such misguided and evil deeds. South-Central Asia is in turmoil, some countries on the brink of war. Illegal drug production, terrorist activities and planning are on the rise. Ethnic and religiously-motivated mass murders and forced displacements are taking place, and the most basic human and women’s rights are shamelessly violated. The country has gradually been occupied by fanatics, extremists, terrorists, mercenaries, drug Mafias and professional murderers. One faction, the Taliban, which by no means rightly represents Islam, Afghanistan or our centuries-old cultural heritage, has with direct foreign assistance exacerbated this explosive situation. They are unyielding and unwilling to talk or reach a compromise with any other Afghan side.

Unfortunately, this dark accomplishment could not have materialized without the direct support and involvement of influential governmental and non-governmental circles in Pakistan. Aside from receiving military logistics, fuel and arms from Pakistan, our intelligence reports indicate that more than 28,000 Pakistani citizens, including paramilitary personnel and military advisers are part of the Taliban occupation forces in various parts of Afghanistan. We currently hold more than 500 Pakistani citizens including military personnel in our POW camps. Three major concerns - namely terrorism, drugs and human rights - originate from Taliban-held areas but are instigated from Pakistan, thus forming the inter-connecting angles of an evil triangle. For many Afghans, regardless of ethnicity or religion, Afghanistan, for the second time in one decade, is once again an occupied country.

Let me correct a few fallacies that are propagated by Taliban backers and their lobbies around the world. This situation over the short and long-run, even in case of total control by the Taliban, will not be to anyone’s interest. It will not result in stability, peace and prosperity in the region. The people of Afghanistan will not accept such a repressive regime. Regional countries will never feel secure and safe. Resistance will not end in Afghanistan, but will take on a new national dimension, encompassing all Afghan ethnic and social strata.

The goal is clear. Afghans want to regain their right to self-determination through a democratic or traditional mechanism acceptable to our people. No one group, faction or individual has the right to dictate or impose its will by force or proxy on others. But first, the obstacles have to be overcome, the war has to end, just peace established and a transitional administration set up to move us toward a representative government.

We are willing to move toward this noble goal. We consider this as part of our duty to defend humanity against the scourge of intolerance, violence and fanaticism. But the international community and the democracies of the world should not waste any valuable time, and instead play their critical role to assist in any way possible the valiant people of Afghanistan overcome the obstacles that exist on the path to freedom, peace, stability and prosperity. Effective pressure should be exerted on those countries who stand against the aspirations of the people of Afghanistan. I urge you to engage in constructive and substantive discussions with our representatives and all Afghans who can and want to be part of a broad consensus for peace and freedom for Afghanistan.

With all due respect and my best wishes for the government and people of the United States,

Ahmad Shah Massoud.

then reposting from the "Terrorist Attack Info & Discussion" threads:

Author: Steven_Russell
Date: September 23, 2001 11:40 AM
Subject: News from the Pakistan front

http://www.afghanradio.com/news/2001/sep...

[editorial comment: a dance with the devil]

Pakistan's 'godfathers of the Taliban' hold the key to hunt for bin Laden

By Julian West in Islamabad
(Filed: 23/09/2001)
The Daily Telegraph

THE key to the success or failure of America's hunt for Osama bin Laden lies largely in the hands of Pakistan's powerful and feared intelligence service, an organisation referred to by many Pakistanis as "the invisible government".

At first glance, the headquarters of Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence Agency (ISI), set behind high stone walls on Khayban e Suhawardy Avenue in Islamabad, might be mistaken for yet another drab military building. Most Pakistanis do not even know what is behind its nondescript gates.

It is this organisation, staffed by about 100 officers who run an internal and external intelligence network of many thousand agents and freelance spies, that America will have to lean on heavily to track and find bin Laden in the barren mountains of Afghanistan.

Pakistan's many-tentacled ISI - equivalent to Britain's MI5 and MI6 combined - has long possessed the world's finest and most accurate human intelligence within Afghanistan. It also functions as the predominant power-broker in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

American officials are publicly enthusiastic about the offer of co-operation from Pakistan's intelligence agencies. "This is a crucial development that will change everything," one said. "Pakistan has better links to the Taliban, and knows more about them, than anyone else in the world. Its agents walk the streets and talk the talk."

Lt Gen Mahmood Ahmed, the head of ISI, was co-incidentally in Washington as the terrorist attack in New York took place, having arranged to visit senior administration officials several weeks earlier. After talks with CIA chiefs, he met Richard Armitage, the Deputy Secretary of State.

An administration official said: "There was an extremely candid exchange from our side, one that left little room for misunderstanding. It is safe to say the rules have changed." Porter Goss and Bob Graham, who respectively chair the House and Senate intelligence committees, met government officials in Islamabad in August to promote better ties with Pakistani intelligence.

American officials are aware of the great care that must be taken in evaluating information from the ISI, an organisation that has spent much of the past 10 years supporting and encouraging the Taliban. "These guys are the only people we can use," said one administration ally, "but that doesn't mean we can rely on them."

Employing a vast spy network of Pakistanis who speak Pashto and Farsi, the local languages, the ISI has also recruited many hundreds of Afghans, luring them with money and promises of sanctuary for their families in Pakistan.

"It's easy to recruit Pakistanis, a hotel doorman here earns only $4 a month," said a Western intelligence officer in Islamabad. "They also use Afghans who are afraid for their families. They tell them 'work for us, we'll look after your family here and you can come and see them'."

Described as "the Taliban's godfathers and parents", the ISI is credited with fostering and nurturing the Taliban movement in the mid 1990s. It is also believed to have had access to bin Laden himself in the past.

It was an ISI delegation, led by its deputy chief, Gen Faiz Gilani, that flew to Kandahar and Kabul early last week in a failed attempt to pressurise Mullah Omar, the Taliban's secretive, one-eyed leader, to give up bin Laden.

ISI military "consultants" are to be found on the Taliban's frontlines alongside several thousand Arabs loyal to bin Laden. The agency has covertly armed and funded the movement for many years.

A Western diplomat said: "The ISI has its fingers in every pie. That's why America had to get their co-operation. America has no worthwhile agents on the ground in Afghanistan. If anyone can catch bin Laden it's the ISI."

Gen Hamid Gul, the head of ISI from 1987-1989, remains bitter at the way that he was treated by America which, he claims, had him sacked from his position because of his ideological commitment to the fundamentalist cause.

Gen Gul turned the organisation into a state within a state with its own Islamic agenda. Although it failed in trying to install a fundamentalist government in Afghanistan during his leadership, his influence over the organisation remained crucial when in 1994 it became responsible for turning the Taliban into a force capable of taking over Kabul.

Gen Gul said: "The Americans thought they could use the fundamentalists to fight the Russians and drop them. This is what they do, they build something up and then destroy it. They did the same with ISI.

"When George Bush senior felt we were becoming too independent and ideologically-motivated he said 'clip the wings of ISI' and had me sacked. Now they want the same institution to share information with them."

The Pakistani intelligence organisation has long been viewed by most of its countrymen as a sinister and shadowy force. Conceived in the 1950s by Gen Ayub Khan as a means of keeping watch on politicians, its power grew after he took over the country in 1958, effectively becoming the army's political wing.

In the 1970s, the Prime Minister, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, began using the agency against his political enemies and it became known as a "dirty tricks" brigade. It ran smear campaigns against politicians, prominent figures and journalists. Visitors to Pakistan can expect to be tailed by mysterious men, or find their telephone conversations and e-mails are tapped.

The ISI only became seriously active in Afghanistan during the Soviet-Afghan war when it helped the CIA to arm, train and fund the mujahideen. During the power vacuum created by the Soviet withdrawal in 1989 when Afghanistan was torn apart by warring mujahideen groups, the ISI grasped the chance to wield power in the region by fostering a previously unknown Kandahari student movement, the Taliban.

A former CIA official said: "If you want to do anything in the region, you have to have the ISI on your side. These guys speak the languages, wear the clothes and walk the streets. He added: "No one knows Afghanistan like the ISI."

Author: JenL_2
Date: September 23, 2001 12:02 PM
Subject: Re: News from the Pakistan front

In response to message posted by Steven_Russell:

Steve - a dance with the devil indeed....a related article posted to the "Terrorist Attack - discussion" thread....

http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

.....Jen

Author: JenL_2
Date: September 23, 2001 9:07 AM
Subject: Re: I WANT TO FEEL SAFE

In response to message posted by Rande:

Rande - You said....

Others are religious zealots, on the fringe of the mainstream they claim to represent. Typically, it is a case of but a few leaders in power who manage to hold sway and are able to coerce/brainwash their citizens/followers. They're wrong, and they don't represent the majority.

I agree - these fanatic leaders' ideas are on the fringe - but unfortunately the U.S. unwittingly aided in creating this monster - the Taliban - to fight against the Russians. Found this article clicking through a link within Kirk's link:

'CIA worked with Pak to create Taliban'

India Abroad News Service, March 6, 2001
Sanjay Suri

London - THE CENTRAL Intelligence Agency (CIA) worked in tandem with Pakistan to create the "monster" that is today Afghanistan's ruling Taliban, a leading US expert on South Asia said here.

"I warned them that we were creating a monster," Selig Harrison from the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars said at the conference here last week on "Terrorism and Regional Security: Managing the Challenges in Asia."

Harrison said: "The CIA made a historic mistake in encouraging Islamic groups from all over the world to come to Afghanistan." The US provided $3 billion for building up these Islamic groups, and it accepted Pakistan's demand that they should decide how this money should be spent, Harrison said.

Harrison, who spoke before the Taliban assault on the Buddha statues was launched, told the gathering of security experts that he had meetings with CIA leaders at the time when Islamic forces were being strengthened in Afghanistan. "They told me these people were fanatical, and the more fierce they were the more fiercely they would fight the Soviets," he said. "I warned them that we were creating a monster."

Harrison, who has written five books on Asian affairs and US relations with Asia, has had extensive contact with the CIA and political leaders in South Asia. Harrison was a senior associate of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace between 1974 and 1996.

Harrison who is now senior fellow with The Century Foundation recalled a conversation he had with the late Gen Zia-ul Haq of Pakistan. "Gen Zia spoke to me about expanding Pakistan's sphere of influence to control Afghanistan, then Uzbekistan and Tajikstan and then Iran and Turkey," Harrison said. That design continues, he said. Gen. Mohammed Aziz who was involved in that Zia plan has been elevated now to a key position by Chief Executive, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, Harrison said.

The old associations between the intelligence agencies continue, Harrison said. "The CIA still has close links with the ISI (Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence)."

Today that money and those weapons have helped build up the Taliban, Harrison said. "The Taliban are not just recruits from 'madrassas' (Muslim theological schools) but are on the payroll of the ISI (Inter Services Intelligence, the intelligence wing of the Pakistani government)." The Taliban are now "making a living out of terrorism."

Harrison said the UN Security Council resolution number 1333 calls for an embargo on arms to the Taliban. "But it is a resolution without teeth because it does not provide sanctions for non-compliance," he said. "The US is not backing the Russians who want to give more teeth to the resolution."

Now it is Pakistan that "holds the key to the future of Afghanistan," Harrison said. The creation of the Taliban was central to Pakistan's "pan-Islamic vision," Harrison said.

It came after "the CIA made the historic mistake of encouraging Islamic groups from all over the world to come to Afghanistan," he said. The creation of the Taliban had been "actively encouraged by the ISI and the CIA," he said. "Pakistan has been building up Afghan collaborators who will sustain Pakistan," he said.

If we helped create them we can destroy them also......Jen

.....Jen

-- posted by JenL_2

Top 170. Mar 11, 2002 10:55 AM

» BPyles - Pearl inv

Lots of questions asked but no answers.
---------------------

Did Daniel Pearl stumble
upon ISI secrets?

SIDDHARTH VARADARAJAN, The India Times

TIMES NEWS NETWORK [ MONDAY, MARCH 11, 2002 2:05:09 AM ]

I SLAMABAD: What did General Pervez Musharraf mean when
he said that Daniel Pearl—the Wall Street Journal
correspondent who was kidnapped and killed by extremists in
Pakistan—had been over intrusive in areas he shouldn’t have
been?

The remark was vintage Musharraf, delivered off-the-cuff during an
impromptu press conference here Thursday. And though there
was no trace of menace in his voice, he was clearly stating that
there were some areas which journalists should stay away from
for their own good. "Unfortunately", he said, "(Pearl) got
over-involved".

But what exactly had Pearl got himself "over-involved" in? Though
he was said to be working on a story about the Pakistani
linkages of Richard Reid—the shoe bomber who was
overpowered by passengers on a US-bound flight in
December—many local journalists feel Pearl had stumbled
across information which might have embarrassed the
Inter-Services Intelligence agency in some way.

"We can only presume he came close to finding out the roots of
some people with the ISI,” said a senior columnist for the Urdu
daily, Jang. "There were 3,000 western journalists who worked in
or passed through Pakistan during the US war on Afghanistan,
said one editor of a daily newspaper. "Why was he the one
picked up?"

The editor echoed a theory which is quite popular among
journalists here "that Pearl might have been pursuing another,
more damaging story than the one on Richard Reid: "It is
possible he had come across some information about a few of
the persons on India’s list of 20 terrorists. Persons such as
Dawood Ibrahim, for example".

He pointed out that the first time an exposé on Dawood’s Karachi
links was published in the Pakistani magazine Herald, the ISI
had picked up and interrogated two journalists, Ghulam Hasnain
and Amir Ahmed Khan, to try and find out the source of their
story.

Though Pakistani analysts doubt that Pearl kidnapping had
official sanction, they say the investigation will likely proceed
“cautiously”. “I am not saying there will be a cover-up”, said one
senior journalist. “But Pakistan’s past policies (regarding the
extremist groups) have left a large number of skeletons. Once
you begin investigating, you will start opening all kinds of doors”.

Even though they had nothing to do with Pearl’s kidnapping,
many people within the ruling establishment would not like
matters to be probed very deeply, he said. One noted Pakistani
commentator told The Times of India that the manner in which
Omar Sheikh, the prime suspect in the Pearl kidnapping, came
into police custody itself spoke of these linkages.

“He wasn’t arrested. Rather, he turned himself in to the one man
he trusted enormously, Punjab Home Secretary Brigadier Ijaz
Shah, who is a retired ISI man”.

And what was Omar’s connection with Ijaz Shah? “Please
re-read the diary Omar Sheikh wrote when he was in prison in
India. It is full of adulatory references to the man who inspired
him. And that man’s name was Shah sahab.”

-- posted by BPyles

Top 171. Mar 11, 2002 2:44 PM

» JenL_2 - Re: Pearl inv

In response to message posted by BPyles:

One noted Pakistani commentator told The Times of India that the manner in which Omar Sheikh, the prime suspect in the Pearl kidnapping, came into police custody itself spoke of these linkages. “He wasn’t arrested. Rather, he turned himself in to the one man he trusted enormously, Punjab Home Secretary Brigadier Ijaz Shah, who is a retired ISI man”.

And what was Omar’s connection with Ijaz Shah? “Please re-read the diary Omar Sheikh wrote when he was in prison in India. It is full of adulatory references to the man who inspired him. And that man’s name was Shah sahab.”

Published at Harpers Online Omar Saeed's diary - a confession handwritten while in prison in India:

Diary of a Terrorist

....Jen

-- posted by JenL_2