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» Kirk - Re: Asset Allocation Rebalancing

In response to message posted by PaulJoslin:

. I honestly think if you take your profits and replenish your losses on both sides, you will out perform any DCA or straight buy and hold strategy.

That is pretty much what I have been saying here for several years now.

Even a 50:50 balanced portfolio can use it. If stocks go down so you are 49:51, then sell 2% of bonds and increase equities by 2% and you are back to 50:50. This has you automatically buying low and selling high.

A portfolio like this can earn some good money in a market that cycles over several bull and bear cycles and ends no higher than it started. Of course, there is no timing strategy to sell so I can't make any money on the idea... other than I like to use more volitile stocks than a straight index fund so you get more bang in the ups and downs.

-- posted by Kirk

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» smile_1 - Re: 60/40 Stocks to bonds

In response to message posted by PaulJoslin:

agree on premise - use of asset allocation appropriate for your risk tolerance.

pt. no one shoe fits all.

60:40 split for aggressive investor thru '95-2000 bull would not have been as satisfying for the aggressive investor... as say 70:30 or even 100% position.

variables are risk tolerance and where the market is headed, the later is only noise as long as long term the market is higher.

also you may want to attempt to augment your performance by using "Seasons in the Sun" strategy... coupled with MACD (Thanks Cap'n Ron & Jen).

Just remember rule #6

I say attempt because no strategy should be used in a vacuum.

-- posted by smile_1

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» Kirk - Blodget to leave Merrill Lynch

This dangerous to your wealth analyst is leaving ML on a reported $2M severance package to write a book about the internet.

Story: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

"Blodget's first taste of fame came as an analyst at CIBC Oppenheimer where he predicted shares of online retailer Amazon.com Inc. would hit $400. The stock had been trading at $240 at the time of the call. It closed Wednesday at $9.49 on the Nasdaq."

and

"Through all of 1999 and well into last year, Mr. Blodget advised investors to buy virtually every stock he covered. Boyishly handsome with a charmingly casual manner, he became a fixture on CNBC and in the financial press, making the case for companies that were losing lots of money selling diapers or dog food over the Internet."

-- posted by Kirk

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» PaulJoslin - Re: Re: 60/40 Stocks to bonds

In response to message posted by smile_1:I'm not really talking risk tolerance, I just want to make as much money as I can. I was 100% invested and I would like to be some day again, but I don't know if we'll ever see one of those no brainer bulls again (I'll check out that Seasons strategy.)

-- posted by PaulJoslin

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» smile_1 - refi - for those who did not lock

here is a site which may be helpful in tracking rate trends.

http://nt.mtg-net.com/livemarket/1stciti...

looking more & more like stimulus package is not needed, and may be harmful in the long run depending on the final package.

sound fiscal policy is the key (no deficit spending) the economy is fine, fix the airline security issues and do no further harm...

-- posted by smile_1

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» Rande - Re: refi - for those who did not lock

In response to message posted by smile_1:

The problem with the stimulous package at this point is that it's seen as "must pass" legislation. When that happens ALL the lobbyists come out of the woodwork to cajole our reps into adding no end of irrelevant riders to the bill.

-- posted by Rande

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» PaulJoslin - Re: Re: 60/40 Stocks to bonds

In response to message posted by smile_1:smile, I checked out the Seasons post. Not too impressed. Jake Bernstein use to write about it a lot over on the futures side. You can't ignore seasons when you are trading ags, but we were using it trading copper and the whole thing got kind of ridiculous. I'll side with the group that says the strong seasonal tendencies are already factored in the marlet.

-- posted by PaulJoslin

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» smile_1 - Re: 60/40 Stocks to bonds

In response to message posted by PaulJoslin:

I think the strategy would have you back in the market starting early Oct 2001 @ approximately 104 on SPY.

If economy continues to strengthen, we could see SPY @ 130+ by May... as comps become easier

If SPY gets back to 130...

25% simple return ain't bad in my book, if you annualize this 46.6%, looks pretty impressive... but guess I'm easily impressed...

-- posted by smile_1

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» smile_1 - thanks OPECers - for the effective tax cut

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=NYMEX...

oil breaking down big time 17.6 level (Pissani just said it was at 17.45 level) even better...

should help airlines too...

held my LUV... easy even at 13 and change

keep up the disarray maybe we can get back to $10/bbl oil

gotta go... need to fill my car's gas tank

-- posted by smile_1

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» PaulJoslin - General Money and the Market Discussion

Believe it or not, if you can think for yourself, it is possible to have a discussion without a figurehead to rally around or tear down.

Never could figure out why when some guy gets on TV or radio and makes a comment that people feel it is important to either validate or tear the guys opinion down.

I guess if you want to have a fan club or an anti fan club that is your business, but I have no interest in it.

Can anybody recommend a place they enjoy where people talk about money and the market?

-- posted by PaulJoslin

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