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Top 42. Nov 2, 2001 1:17 PM

» Rande - Re: Capitulation?

In response to message posted by SteveT:

Sept. already saw the largest monthly equity fund withdrawals in history.

-- posted by Rande

Top 43. Nov 2, 2001 2:12 PM

» SteveT - Re: Re: Capitulation?

In response to message posted by Rande:

Yes but does that assume that record will not be broken in the future? smile

-- posted by SteveT

Top 44. Nov 2, 2001 3:05 PM

» Rande - Re: Re: Re: Capitulation?

In response to message posted by SteveT:

No, nor does it mean that those who are still waiting for some great and sudden selling crescendo might not already have seen it.

-- posted by Rande

Top 45. Nov 2, 2001 5:10 PM

» Rande - The Latest -- 11/2/01

The market started the week down sharply, anticipating some very ugly economic reports. Investors got what they expected, but somehow the market managed to cut the week's losses quite nicely when it was all said and done. Was it the end of the 30-year era and accompanying bond market action? The MSFT setllement? Or was it just a matter of looking ahead instead of dwelling on the rear-view mirror?

Roses are red, violets are blue, the market will do what the market will do.

Have a great weekend. Here's....

The Latest (as of 11/02 close):

YTD 2001:

DJIA -13.6%
S&P -17.8%
SPY -16.2%
VTSMX (W5000 Index Fund) -16.9%
Nas -29.3%
QQQ -39.0%
R2000 -10.4%
MDY (S&P 400 Midcap) -10.0%
VEURX (European Index Fund) -23.9%

Since 12/31/99:

DJIA -18.9%
S&P -26.0%
SPY -23.9%
VTSMX -25.4%
Nas -57.1%
QQQ -61.0%
R2000 -14.2%
MDY +5.7%
VEURX -29.7%
50/50 Total Stock/Total Bond -1.05%
(includes Total Bond through yesterday)

Since Previous Closing Lows:

DJIA (9/21/01) +13.2%
S&P (9/21/01) +12.6%
SPY (9/21/01) +12.7%
W5000 Fund (9/21/01) +13.0%
Nas (9/21/01) +22.7%
QQQ (9/21/01) +26.3%
R2000 (9/21/01) +14.3%
MDY (9/21/00) +13.6%
VEURX (9/21/01) +17.3%

Since Previous Closing Highs:

DJIA (1/14/00) -20.5%
S&P (3/24/00) -28.8%
SPY (3/24/00) -27.2%
VTSMX (3/24/00) -30.3%
Nas (3/10/00; ) -65.4%
QQQ (3/24/00) -69.8%
R2000 (3/9/00) -28.5%
MDY (9/7/00) -15.5%
VEURX (3/24/00) -32.1%
___________________________

Benchmark Closing Lows (lows since previous all-time highs):

DJIA 8235.81 (9/21/01)
S&P 965.80 (9/21/01)
SPY 97.28 (9/21/01)
VTSMX 21.40 (9/21/01)
Nas 1423.19 (9/21/01) (intra -- 1387.06 on 9/21/01)
QQQ 28.19 (9/21/01) (intra -- 27.20 on 9/21/01)
R2000 378.89 (9/21/01)
MDY 74.45 (9/21/01)
VEURX 16.85 (9/21/01)

Market Cycle Peak to Trough:

DJIA (1/14/00 - 9/21/01) -29.8%
S&P (3/24/00 - 9/21/01) -36.8%
SPY (3/24/00 - 9/21/01) -35.3%
VTSMX (3/24/00 - 9/21/01) -38.2
Nas (3/10/00 - 9/21/01) -71.8%
QQQ (3/24/00 - 9/21/01) -76.1%
___________________________

Index returns are price change only, ETFs and mutual funds including divs/distributions. Returns not guaranteed as to accuracy -- relying on unaudited third-party sources (may have missed a dividend or two, which would understate returns).

-- posted by Rande

http://www.vtoreport.com/nasdaq/nasdaq-n...

Top 46. Nov 3, 2001 8:16 AM

» skp - During times of war, the government spends more money on the mil

During times of war, the government spends more money on the military. Already Congress has authorized more than $20 billion for increased defense spending. Over $50 billion has been authorized to rebuild New York, bail out the airlines and for the war effort. This is just a down payment. More spending is being considered. War produces greater government expenditure for raw materials, weapons and soldier salaries. More of the nation's raw materials will be allocated towards defense. The government’s budget will expand to cover the added cost of waging war abroad and at home. For the first time, many aspects of this war will be fought on American soil. The new Cabinet post of Homeland Security will place emphasis on beefing up domestic security. All of which will require that the government spend billions of extra dollars on security measures from air marshals, intelligence gathering to more law enforcement personnel. During times of war, the government usually runs a budget deficit as it spends more than it takes in taxes. The added stimulus through deficit spending and the monetization of debt creates inflation.
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch...

http://www.vtoreport.com/nasdaq/nasdaq-d...

-- posted by skp

Top 47. Nov 3, 2001 10:10 PM

» JenL_2 - Re: The Latest -- 11/2/01

In response to message posted by Rande:

To illustrate:

<img src="http://chart.neural.com/servlet/GIFChart..." width=500 height=350>
VTSMX, VFINX, VEXMX Comparison 5 YR Chart

<img src="http://chart.neural.com/servlet/GIFChart..." width=500 height=350>
3 YR Chart

<img src="http://chart.neural.com/servlet/GIFChart..." width=500 height=350>
1 YR Chart

<img src="http://pvcharts.quicken.com/bin/icenter...." width=470 height=250>
YTD Chart

…..Jen

-- posted by JenL_2

Top 48. Nov 4, 2001 7:24 AM

» Kirk - Re: Government Spending leads to inflation

In response to message posted by skp:

Good post. I'm not sure I agree that government spending leads to inflation. The government spent like crazy as a percentage of GDP during the Great Depression. I don't seem to recall that as a period of high inflation.

I believe Larry Kudlow will tell you that inflation is caused by supply and demand where you have more money than goods to buy so the sellers of the goods can raise prices. I don't see this as a big problem as China and other parts of the World will add deflationary pressure to offset our inflationary pressures such as not enough engineering talent to build all the devices, bombs, anti-terror databases, etc. that we'll need. What that means is we might continue to get inflation in engineering salaries but deflation in the parts they use to build the devices they design (i.e. you can get 10x more memory for the dollar today than 24 months ago but the engineering salary to design this into a device is still going to cost you more, especially with higher health care costs.)

-- posted by Kirk

Top 49. Nov 4, 2001 8:02 AM

» Mark_J - Re: Re: Government Spending leads to inflation

In response to message posted by Kirk:

One of the subjects in monday's Investors Business Daily is the Senate (Tom Daschle) attempting to use the 9-11 attack as justification to expand national health care. The democrats are attempting to expand the reach and pay premiums or partial premiums for children, victims, unemployed... etc.

This is a dangerous game. Medical costs are expanding faster then the rate of inflation. The article in IBD points out that the more the government gets involved, the more likely price controls will be introduced.

That's a recipe for disaster, IMHO.

-- posted by Mark_J

Top 50. Nov 4, 2001 8:11 AM

» skp - Re: MCIT 5% quarterly dividend!

In response to message posted by Kirk:

>4% of float is short so a nice bounce could be in the cards if they ever have to cover.<

The shorts have to pay the 20% dividend out to the lenders, Not good to short stocks with dividends.

Inflation and deflation at the same time, That sums up what I see now, Or they could hold each other in check. Could this just be that the U S Dollar is in an uptrend?

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/M

Commodities are at all time lows and in a downtrend.

http://quotes.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=KCZ1&code=BCRT
http://quotes.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=SIZ1&code=BCRT
http://www2.barchart.com/mktcom.asp?code=bcrt

-- posted by skp