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- ACousins
- ACousins
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- mdorsey
- Kirk
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- mdorsey
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- Q_out
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» ACousins - Factoids FWIW
From RevShark on RM:Since 1950, the S&P 500 has never had a big positive year if January was negative. There are no exceptions. Every time the S&P was down in January, we had either a flat or negative year...
Here is a more cheerful statistic that brings joy to the heart of a trader like me who prefers the small-cap stocks. Consensus IBES earnings estimates for the stocks in the Russell 2000 show earnings growth of 51.3% vs. 15.8% for the S&P 500.
Wow those small cap analysts have some serious happy juice going.
-- posted by ACousins
» ACousins - Re: Factoids FWIW
In response to message posted by ACousins:Alsin also makes the same came for small and mid caps. He says that the S&P500 pe is misleading because it is over dominated by a few dozen big caps that are overvalued.
He also makes the case that the nastiest bears last 18-21 months and this one would be 18 months if September was THE LOW. The best time to buy stocks is in the middle of a recession as they have already risen at the end which is a 100 year old pattern.
He has some gangbuster picks last year so it will be interesting to see if he can have another great turnaround picks year.
-- posted by ACousins
» Rande - Re: Re: Factoids FWIW
In response to message posted by ACousins:
Still seems to be better relative value in general with the mids and smalls, at least from a trailing P/E perspective. Ironic, though, that on the first trading day of the year all the major indexes are up except for the Russell 2000. Not sure what that means, but I think I'll stick with broad diversification via the Total Market just in case. 
-- posted by Rande
» Kirk - Re: Re: Good Start for 2002
In response to message posted by mdorsey:Well, January is a barometer month for the markets in general.
The small, er micro, cap I bought Monday was my biggest winner today up $6.2%! I diversified out of some HWP and that was #2 up 5.4% today.
It seems that the Dogs of the Dow did well in 2001. It would be interesting to see if anyone posts dogs of the dow results.... Keep your eyes open if you see some writeup but I saw a bit on tv that said they were up last yr... or at least outperformed the DOW.
HWP was one of the biggest losers in the DOW last yr so a pop early this year makes sense.... I sold a few shares Monday while I was in a low tax rate to pay the 75% cap gain, but also what I bought to diversify now qualifies for the 18% LTCG rate if I hold 5 yrs...
Have you looked at MCIT? HUGE dividend...
-- posted by Kirk
-- posted by mdorsey
» Kirk - Re: Re: Re: Re: Good Start for 2002
In response to message posted by Rande:that site didn't have reinvested dividends for the stocks. Dividends were a big deal and I think the dogs ended down about 3.5% vs 7% or so for the DJIA (not sure what dividend rate it pays...)
anyway, I believe the strategy worked this year, but dividend stocks are ALWAYS a good hedge in a negative year.
-- posted by Kirk
» Q_out - Re: Good Start for 2002
In response to message posted by Kirk:According to the "January Effect", if the Dow goes up during the month of January, it tends to end up during the year. And if the market goes up the first five trading days of January, it tends to end up at the end of the month. So some will say, as the first five days of the month goes, so will go the year.
To trace the progress of the market, I'll illustrate with this cake.
<img src="/files/mysites/qout/newyeardow1.gif" width=250 height=250>
For each of the first five days that the Dow Jones Industrial Average goes up, I'll add one white candle. For each day that the Dow goes down, I'll add one red stick of dynamite. At the end of five days, I'll light the dominant wicks, and we'll see what happens.
<img src="/files/mysites/qout/bhoestarts.gif" width=53 height=34 align="left">
Q_out
DISCLAIMER: My words and observations are general in nature, and are not meant as specific investment advice. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.
-- posted by Q_out
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