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Top 192. Dec 31, 2001 5:24 PM

» Rande - The Latest -- Year End

The last couple of years have been tough, though not the worst we've ever seen (unless you were primarily invested in the Nasdaq). Actually, not too bad if you were well-diversified with mid and small-caps and bonds. In any event, here's a toast to "better days ahead." HAPPY NEW YEAR!

2000 and 2001 for the major indexes below with 73-74 by way of comparison.

2000

R2000 -3.03%
DJIA -6.18%
S&P -9.10
VTSMX -10.93%
Nas -39.29%

2001

R2000 +1.03%
DJIA -7.10%
VTSMX 10.96%*
S&P -11.78%*
Nas -21.05%

*estimate w/dividends -- will true-up later

1973
S&P -14.66
R2000 -30.90

1974
S&P -26.47
R2000 -19.95

Also, for historical reference, from the "Ask" thread:

The last time large-cap stocks declined three years in a row (actually, four):

1929 -8.42%
1930 -24.90%
1931 -43.34%
1932 -8.19%

They had a nice rebound though:

1933
Large-caps +53.99%
Small-caps +142.87%

1934
Large-caps -1.44%
Small-caps +24.22%

1935
Large-caps +47.67%
Small-caps +40.19%

1936
Large-caps +33.92%
Small-caps +64.80%

-- posted by Rande

Top 193. Jan 1, 2002 7:20 AM

» Rande - Re: The Latest -- Year End

In response to message posted by Rande:

updated...

2000

R2000 -3.03%
DJIA -6.18%
VFINX (S&P 500) -9.06%
VTSMX (W5000) -10.57%
Nas -39.29%

2001

R2000 +1.03%
DJIA -7.10%
VTSMX (W5000) -10.97%
VFINX (S&P 500) -12.02%
Nas -21.05%

12/31/99-12/31/01
50/50 Total Stock/Total Bond +0.26%

1973
S&P -14.66
R2000 -30.90

1974
S&P -26.47
R2000 -19.95

-- posted by Rande

http://206.96.168.111/home/daily.asp

Top 194. Jan 1, 2002 9:23 AM

» mdorsey - It makes since to me.

WEISS COMMENTS

Expect More Downside In 2002
-- December 31, 2001

Stocks opened lower on this last day of 2001. The year is shaping up to be the worst year for the broad market since 1974. And we expect more of the same in 2002. In fact, we forecast that the Dow, the S&P, and the Nasdaq could plummet by as much as 60%.

Why? Just take a look at the underlying fundamentals: Consumers are drowning in an ocean of debt. Corporate credit quality suffered its biggest decline in 10 years, and is expected to decline in 2002 as well. Corporate profits are sinking. The US stock market is more overvalued than ever before.

Unemployment just suffered its worse spike in 19 years, and the layoff announcements continue to stream in. Unemployment is the classic link that will turn an economic slowdown into a vicious circle of falling prices, sliding profits, and more debt problems.

Many of the "experts" are predicting a recovery in 2002. But as the bad economic news continues to hit Wall Street in the new year, expect the sell off to begin.

-- posted by mdorsey

Top 195. Jan 1, 2002 9:58 AM

» stocksystm - Martin Weiss' Predictive Abilities

Whatever Martin Weiss says cannot be taken at all seriously. His past record is absolutely dismal. He's been forecasting financial devastation and ruin for many, many years.

-- posted by stocksystm

Top 196. Jan 1, 2002 10:30 AM

» mdorsey - Re: Martin Weiss' Predictive Abilities

In response to message posted by stocksystm:

Even a blind pig finds an acorn every now and then. smile

-- posted by mdorsey

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/srs...

Top 197. Jan 1, 2002 10:46 AM

» Karin_ - Market Trends

Market Trends

The tables below indicate which industry sectors, market capitalizations, and investment styles are generally in favor or out of favor in the current market environment. They are based on a quantitative analysis of recent stock performance.

-- posted by Karin_

Top 198. Jan 1, 2002 4:04 PM

» rasputin - Re: Re: The Latest -- Year End

In response to message posted by Rande:

Thanks for the numbers, Rande. The 50/50 Bond/Stock returns gives an interesting perspective. I think it's time for me to start dca'ing back in, maybe taking advantage of any dips to get fully invested (which at this point I think will be limited to 50% stocks).

No word regarding this from Brinker, huh? I know he backed away from the notion of MOABO, but ain't he gonna' call some kind of a buying opportunity? Would that be SKOABO?

-- posted by rasputin

Top 199. Jan 1, 2002 8:37 PM

» Rande - Re: The Latest -- Year End

In response to message posted by Rande:

Correction to the "3 in a row" data. Actually, there were three consecutive down years for large caps during WWII:

1939 -5.45%
1940 -15.29%
1941 -17.86%

During that same period, small-caps had positive returns:

1939 +4.69%
1940 +5.36%
1941 +6.71%

For large-caps, those the three down years from 1939-41 were followed by four consecutive up years of 12.43%, 19.45%, 13.80% and 30.72%.

-- posted by Rande

http://www.msnbc.com/news/680026.asp

Top 200. Jan 2, 2002 8:09 AM

» mdorsey - Increase in corporate debt

Increase in corporate debt
could hurt U.S. recovery

Analysts sound alarm as borrowing climbs

By Gregory Zuckerman
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Dec. 31 — Heavy debts are hounding companies in almost every industry, from telecommunications to textiles. Could that be enough to keep the stock-market recovery at bay?

BECAUSE U.S. CORPORATIONS are continuing to add to their debt, instead of cutting back, analysts have begun to sound the alarm. U.S. nonfinancial, nonfarm companies had racked up a record $4.9 trillion of debt as of the end of the third quarter, according to recently released figures from the Federal Reserve.
That was up 6.6% from the third quarter of 2000, even as the economy entered a recession, the stock market swooned and many companies saw their credit ratings slashed.
The fear among analysts is that the debt deluge will put a cap on corporate spending, cutting off what many economists see as a spark for an earnings turnaround next year. That could quickly put a damper on stocks, if earnings improvements that have now been predicted for months begin to look much further off.

-- posted by mdorsey