FULL! U.S. Stock Market - Discussion 2,000+ Use New Forum!

Top 142. Nov 29, 2001 6:09 PM

» Jaybird248 - Enron Age Restriction?

Wasn't there a restriction on taking anything out of Enron's 401K plan prior to age 50?

-- posted by Jaybird248

http://www.msnbc.com/news/665334.asp?0si...

Top 143. Nov 30, 2001 10:36 AM

» mdorsey - What we all thought was going on.

How IPO horse trading worked

Lush profits from offerings wended their way back to CSFB

By Susan Pulliam and Randall Smith
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Steve Kris is a small fish in the investment world, but he made a big splash in the IPO market. In late 1999, as the red-hot software firm VA Linux Systems was preparing an initial public offering, investors were clamoring for shares. Among them was Mr. Kris, head of a small Denver investment firm called Ascent Capital. But Ascent drew only a modest allocation of 2,500 shares from the lead underwriter, Credit Suisse First Boston.

KRIS PRESSED a CSFB salesman for more, and the salesman made a plea to a CSFB allocation official. Ascent “has done $100,000 in business in the last week” and “will do close to $1 million all in this year,” the salesman’s e-mail said, adding that Ascent was sure to be a buyer on the open market once Linux started trading.
Bingo. CSFB allotted Ascent 17,950 Linux shares at the offering price, seven times as many as before. The stock soared a record 698 percent on its first trading day, bringing Ascent paper profits of $3.8 million.
That very day, Ascent traded big blocks of other stocks through CSFB at astronomical commissions. In contrast to normal fees of a few cents a share on such trades, Ascent paid CSFB $2.70 a share to trade 50,000 shares of Citigroup — handing the underwriter a $135,000 commission, CSFB trading records show. Ascent also traded blocs of Compaq, Kroger, Kmart and AT&T through CSFB at far-above-normal commissions.

The next day, the CSFB salesman thanked the allocation official. “Ascent ended up doing $500,000 in commissions with us yesterday. Thanks again for your help with this account,” wrote salesman Robert Paglione in an e-mail. CSFB declines to comment, while Paglione and Kris didn’t return phone calls.

BROAD INVESTIGATION
The IPO boom that was one of the bull market’s most dramatic features also bred questionable deals, some of which now are the subject of a multifaceted investigation. Both the Securities and Exchange Commission and the National Association of Securities Dealers are looking into IPO practices, although a parallel criminal inquiry was dropped this week.
Now — thanks to trading records, e-mails and interviews with dozens of investors and current and former CSFB employees — it is possible to get an inside look at how some of this IPO trading worked

-- posted by mdorsey

Top 144. Nov 30, 2001 11:10 AM

» mdorsey - Cheerleader for the bulls.

Here is link for those of you want to believe the economy is near an upturn. As for me I don't see it.

-- posted by mdorsey

http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?a...

Top 145. Nov 30, 2001 11:12 AM

» mdorsey - Don't Fall For The Spin

Don't Fall For The Spin
Although it seems that every new economic report comes with a positive spin it pays to ignore the headline and examine the numbers. For instance today's widely hailed report on new orders for durable goods actually fits in quite well with the case we've been making that the economy is still deteriorating. While new orders were up over 12% this was aided by a 206% jump in defense orders as part of the first installment of Lockeed's new fighter plane contract. Stripping the numbers down to their essentials, non-defense capital goods orders for October were up 7.4%, recovering only slightly more than half of September's 13.7% decline. This is in accord with most other economic reports indicating that October results are only bouncing back a bit from the post-attack September stoppages, and that overall economic activity is still trending down. Adding fuel to the fire, initial unemployment claims were up 54,000 while help wanted ads dropped to their lowest level since 1964, indicating that the labor picture is still weakening. The Fed must have known about these figures yesterday when they issued their negative Beige Book. In addition, today Kansas City Fed president Hoenig sounded another note of pessimism about the economy. Significantly, Hoenig was so bullish about the prospects for a turnaround earlier in the year that he dissented from the Fed's May 15th decision to lower interest rates. Overall the weight of the evidence still indicates that the economy is getting worse, and this is particularly dangerous for an optimistic stock market that remains highly overvalued.

Now that makes since to me.

-- posted by mdorsey

Top 146. Nov 30, 2001 10:18 PM

» Rande - The Latest -- 11/30/01

Here's....

The Latest (as of 11/30 close):

YTD 2001:

DJIA -8.7%
S&P -13.7%
SPY -12.6%
VTSMX (W5000 Index Fund) -12.5%
Nas -21.9%
QQQ -32.1%
R2000 -4.7%
MDY (S&P 400 Midcap) -5.6%
VEURX (European Index Fund) -22.3%

Since 12/31/99:

DJIA -14.3%
S&P -22.5%
SPY -20.7%
VTSMX -21.6%
Nas -52.6%
QQQ -56.6%
R2000 -8.7%
MDY +10.8%
VEURX -28.3%
50/50 Total Stock/Total Bond -0.1%
(includes Total Bond through yesterday)

Since Previous Closing Lows:

DJIA (9/21/01) +19.6%
S&P (9/21/01) +18.0%
SPY (9/21/01) +17.6%
W5000 Fund (9/21/01) +18.9%
Nas (9/21/01) +35.7%
QQQ (9/21/01) +40.7%
R2000 (9/21/01) +21.6%
MDY (9/21/00) +19.2%
VEURX (9/21/01) +19.8%

Since Previous Closing Highs:

DJIA (1/14/00) -16.0%
S&P (3/24/00) -25.6%
SPY (3/24/00) -24.1%
VTSMX (3/24/00) -26.8%
Nas (3/10/00; ) -61.8%
QQQ (3/24/00) -66.3%
R2000 (3/9/00) -24.0%
MDY (9/7/00) -11.4%
VEURX (3/24/00) -30.8%
___________________________

Previous Closing Highs

DJIA 11722.98 (1/14/00)
S&P 1527.46 (3/24/00) [back to 1530.09 intraday on 9/1/00]
SPY 153.56 (3/24/00) [back to 153.5938 intraday on 9/1/00]
VTSMX 35.58 (3/24/00)
Nas 5048.62 (3/10/00)
QQQ 117.75 (3/24/00)
R2000 606.05 (3/09/00)
MDY 101.4525 (9/7/00)
VEURX 29.85 (3/24/00)

Benchmark Closing Lows (lows since previous all-time highs):

DJIA 8235.81 (9/21/01)
S&P 965.80 (9/21/01)
SPY 97.28 (9/21/01)
VTSMX 21.40 (9/21/01)
Nas 1423.19 (9/21/01) (intra low -- 1387.06 on 9/21/01)
QQQ 28.19 (9/21/01) (intra low -- 27.20 on 9/21/01)
R2000 378.89 (9/21/01)
MDY 74.45 (9/21/01)
VEURX 16.85 (9/21/01)

Market Cycle Peak to Trough:

DJIA (1/14/00 - 9/21/01) -29.8%
S&P (3/24/00 - 9/21/01) -36.8%
SPY (3/24/00 - 9/21/01) -35.3%
VTSMX (3/24/00 - 9/21/01) -38.2
Nas (3/10/00 - 9/21/01) -71.8%
QQQ (3/24/00 - 9/21/01) -76.1%
___________________________

Index returns are price change only, ETFs and mutual funds including divs/distributions. Returns not guaranteed as to accuracy -- relying on unaudited third-party sources (may have missed a dividend or two, which would understate returns). Returns rounded.

-- posted by Rande

Top 147. Nov 30, 2001 10:21 PM

» JenL_2 - Re: The Latest -- 11/30/01

In response to message posted by Rande:

To illustrate:

<img src="http://chart.neural.com/servlet/GIFChart..." width=500 height=350>
VTSMX, VFINX, VEXMX Comparison 5 YR Chart

<img src="http://chart.neural.com/servlet/GIFChart..." width=500 height=350>
3 YR Chart

<img src="http://chart.neural.com/servlet/GIFChart..." width=500 height=350>
1 YR Chart

<img src="http://pvcharts.quicken.com/bin/icenter...." width=470 height=250>
YTD Chart

…..Jen

-- posted by JenL_2

http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/wb.exe?CG....

Top 148. Dec 1, 2001 7:52 AM

» Kirk - DOW 30 Quick Charts

Nice one too bookmark

-- posted by Kirk

Top 149. Dec 1, 2001 11:46 AM

» SteveT - Re: DOW 30 Quick Charts

In response to message posted by Kirk:

Yes indeed that is a great source. From there you can get many other charts too. NASDAQ 100 & Spider sectors etc. Good stuff.

-- posted by SteveT

Top 150. Dec 2, 2001 12:52 AM

» JenL_2 - Value Techs

Just posted this to the "QQQ" thread:

In response to message posted by Kirk:

Thanks for posting the nice TLo charts Kirk. This from 12/3 Barron's:

Value Techs

By Rhonda Brammer

September 11 changed everything and probably forever. It changed the world: the way we look at the world and the way the world looks at us. It changed, in some degree or another, how we work and how we play. And, inevitably, it changed how we invest. Let us take, for example, the stock market's performance pre- and post-September 11. Before that fateful day, as the shadow of recession lengthened over the economy, the market was rather a forbidding place. But some parts of it, as always, were less hostile than others.

More specifically, our own special investment province, small stocks, turned in a doughtier showing than their bigger and celebrated brethren. The Russell 2000, a decent proxy for smaller stocks, had declined 9% through September 10 -- roughly half the 17% drop of the S&P 500. Even more noteworthy, however, was how much small value stocks were outperforming small growth stocks. Thus, from the beginning of the year through September 10, while the Russell 2000 Growth Index fell 21%, the Russell 2000 Value Index was actually in positive territory -- up 3%.

But once the market bottomed on September 21, things changed, and dramatically. Big stocks and small stocks moved up pretty much in tandem -- the S&P by 18% and the Russell 2000 by 22%, respectively. Growth, however, forged ahead of value. From September 21 through Thursday, the Russell 2000 Value Index advanced 18%, while the Russell 2000 Growth Index was up a dandy 27%.

<img src="/files/mysites/jen8/techpowersrally.gif" width=369 height=257>

On closer inspection, it emerges that what has been really gunning the market for the past couple of months are big tech stocks. Since September 21, as the accompanying chart vividly illustrates, the tech-loaded Nasdaq 100 has soared a blazing 43%, more than twice the none-too-shabby 19% rise in the broad market, best measured by the Wilshire 5000.

As to what lit the fire under techs, we sought authoritative insight from a fellow who's no stranger to the market as a whole and the sector in particular.

"A lot of it is outright speculation," says Scott Black, Barron's Roundtable member and proprietor of Boston-based Delphi Management. "It's the same hot list you had 18 months ago -- all the old favorites -- PMC Sierra, up 150%; JDS Uniphase, up 140%; Ciena, up 130%." While their stocks have recently taken wing, the first two companies are losing a slug of money and the profitable one, Ciena, is going for a mind-boggling 160 times trailing earnings.

Which explains why, although a long-time tech investor, he's busily reducing his portfolio's exposure to technology. No reflection on the quality of the companies, he insists. Pure and simple, he's lightening up because the stocks are ahead of themselves.

MKS Instruments, bought in the mid-teens, he has been selling in the mid-20s ("it's close to five times book and losing money"). Gone, too, is most of Lam Research, picked up around 16 in October 2000 and sold at an average price of about 28 before September 11 ("earnings are rolling over" and there's increased "competition from Applied Materials"). LTX, purchased around 10-11 over a year ago, was entirely cleaned out long before September 11 at around 26 ("three or four times book and absolutely no earnings").

When pressed, however, Scott allowed as he is buying a couple of small tech stocks whose stock prices are off 75%-80% from their highs. Both companies are losing money but boast robust finances and, in the next 12 months, he expects the stocks to double.

<img src="http://chart.neural.com/servlet/GIFChart..." width=450 height=250>
PEAK 5 YR Chart

Peak International (PEAK) is officially based in Hong Kong but has U.S. offices in Fremont, California. The company is 20% owned by a Chinese semiconductor entrepreneur, incorporated in Bermuda (hence its unusually low tax-rate) and followed by not a single Wall Street analyst.

Peak makes stuff for storing and transporting semiconductor devices -- matrix trays, shipping tubes, carrier tape and reels. Fairly pedestrian stuff in the tech world, but Peak has an advantage: It collects and recycles its wares, which, in addition to being ecologically sound, boosts profit margins. Customers include ASE, Philips, ST Microelectronics, ASAT, Motorola and Texas Instruments.

In its best year -- fiscal 1998, ended March -- Peak earned $1.59 a share and the stock sold over $31. It earned $1.08 in fiscal 2001. But in the first half of fiscal 2002, ended September, revenues fell by more than 50% and the company lost 46 cents a share, versus net of 71 cents a year earlier.

However, Scott believes the company has sharply lowered its costs and will be close to breakeven by the fourth fiscal quarter. That means it's likely to report a loss of 50-60 cents for the year ending March 2002.

By his reckoning, March 2003 will be in the black, with the company posting net of 45 cents a share. He calculates that the following year, even fully taxed, the company could earn 60 cents or so.

The stock closed Friday at $5.56. Tangible book value is $7.32 a share, and even though the company has been buying back shares, there's no debt and cash totals over $2 a share.

<img src="http://pvcharts.quicken.com/bin/icenter...." width=450 height=250>
PRLX 5 YR Chart

Another tech that made the cut is Parlex (PRLX), a small Massachusetts-based outfit. Less than 18 months ago, the shares topped 46. Today they fetch a mere $10 and change -- which means the company's stock-market value has shriveled to under $70 million.

What wreaked havoc with the stock, no surprise, is earnings, or more precisely, the lack of them. In the fiscal year ended June, Parlex lost 99 cents a share, compared with profits of $1.28 a share in the previous year. And the company -- alas -- is still losing money: 18 cents a share in the first fiscal quarter of 2002, ended September, compared with net of 14 cents in the year-ago span.

Yet there's a lot to like about Parlex.

Small it may be, but the firm boasts a commanding presence in a couple of its markets, a history of doing business with a long list of big-name customers and finances that are rock-solid. Though Parlex is still in the red, its operating losses are shrinking, cash flow is slightly above break-even and, even in tough times, the company is gaining market share.

Parlex makes custom flexible circuits and interconnect products. And though there's plenty of competition in Asia, Parlex is the U.S. leader in double-sided and multi-layered flexible circuits that are used in engine controls and sensors, laptop computers, cell phones, smart cards, computer networks, aircraft displays and car transmissions.

Customers include Dell, Hewlett-Packard, Motorola, Honeywell, Siemens, Whirlpool, Delphi, General Dynamics, Pitney Bowes, Visteon and Lexmark.

For all of fiscal 2002, ending June, Parlex is expected to lose 40-50 cents a share -- with business steadily improving as the year wears on. In fiscal 2003, Scott looks for a profit of 45 cents a share.

Parlex, the word is, continues to take away market share from Sheldahl, a troubled U.S. competitor. Promising, too, is Parlex's venture with Gul Technologies Singapore, set to close this month. Parlex will sell Gul products in North America, while Gul will invest in Parlex's Chinese operations.

Parlex has the capability to top the $1.28 a share it earned in June 2000, Scott confidently contends, perhaps reaching $1.70 a share or thereabouts.

At 10 and change, the stock is selling well under a tangible book of $12.60. Cash roughly matches long-term debt. In a year, Scott sees the stock at 20 -- "and you don't have a lot of downside risk."

Subscribe to WSJ & Barron's Online @ http://www.wsj.com

......Jen

-- posted by JenL_2