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Top 12. Oct 26, 2001 4:03 PM

» Rande - The Latest -- 10/26/01

Nice week for the markets. Let's see, now -- we had three up weeks since the dastardly week ending 9/21, followed by one down week and now an up week. What say we keep the pattern going? smile

Lots of economic news on tap next week -- preliminary 3Q GDP, October NAPM, construction spending, personal income and the big monthly employment report for October. Always remember that as interesting as "The Latest" might be, it's important to remain focused on the long term. Stay the course and keep the faith, keeping the short-term noise in proper perspective for what it is -- noise. Meanwhile, for yet another backward-looking, noisy snapshot, here's......

The Latest (as of 10/26 close):

YTD 2001:

DJIA -11.5%
S&P -16.3%
SPY -15.4%
VTSMX (W5000 Index Fund) -15.5%
Nas -28.4%
QQQ -38.2%
R2000 -9.3%
MDY (S&P 400 Midcap) -8.9%
VEURX (European Index Fund) -23.2%

Since 12/31/99:

DJIA -17.0%
S&P -24.8%
SPY -23.2%
VTSMX -24.2%
Nas -56.5%
QQQ -60.5%
R2000 -13.1%
MDY +7.0%
VEURX -29.2%
50/50 Total Stock/Total Bond -1.05%
(includes Total Bond through yesterday)

Since Previous Closing Lows:

DJIA (9/21/01) +15.9%
S&P (9/21/01) +14.4%
SPY (9/21/01) +13.8%
W5000 Fund (9/21/01) +14.9%
Nas (9/21/01) +24.3%
QQQ (9/21/01) +28.0%
R2000 (9/21/01) +15.8%
MDY (9/21/00) +15.0%
VEURX (9/21/01) +18.2%

Since Previous Closing Highs:

DJIA (1/14/00) -18.6%
S&P (3/24/00) -27.7%
SPY (3/24/00) -26.5%
VTSMX (3/24/00) -29.2%
Nas (3/10/00; ) -65.0%
QQQ (3/24/00) -69.4%
R2000 (3/9/00) -27.6%
MDY (9/7/00) -14.5%
VEURX (3/24/00) -31.6%
___________________________

Benchmark Closing Lows (lows since previous all-time highs):

DJIA 8235.81 (9/21/01)
S&P 965.80 (9/21/01)
SPY 97.28 (9/21/01)
VTSMX 21.40 (9/21/01)
Nas 1423.19 (9/21/01) (intra -- 1387.06 on 9/21/01)
QQQ 28.19 (9/21/01) (intra -- 27.20 on 9/21/01)
R2000 378.89 (9/21/01)
MDY 74.45 (9/21/01)
VEURX 16.85 (9/21/01)

Market Cycle Peak to Trough:

DJIA (1/14/00 - 9/21/01) -29.8%
S&P (3/24/00 - 9/21/01) -36.8%
SPY (3/24/00 - 9/21/01) -35.3%
VTSMX (3/24/00 - 9/21/01) -38.2
Nas (3/10/00 - 9/21/01) -71.8%
QQQ (3/24/00 - 9/21/01) -76.1%
___________________________

Index returns are price change only, ETFs and mutual funds including divs/distributions. Returns not guaranteed as to accuracy -- relying on unaudited third-party sources (may have missed a dividend or two, which would understate returns).

-- posted by Rande

Top 13. Oct 26, 2001 5:13 PM

» JenL_2 - Re: The Latest -- 10/26/01

In response to message posted by Rande:

To illustrate:

<img src="http://chart.neural.com/servlet/GIFChart..." width=500 height=350>
VTSMX, VFINX, VEXMX Comparison 5 YR Chart

<img src="http://chart.neural.com/servlet/GIFChart..." width=500 height=350>
3 YR Chart

<img src="http://chart.neural.com/servlet/GIFChart..." width=500 height=350>
1 YR Chart

<img src="http://pvcharts.quicken.com/bin/icenter...." width=470 height=250>
YTD Chart

…..Jen

-- posted by JenL_2

Top 14. Oct 26, 2001 6:31 PM

» Bob_in_CowTown - Re: Re: The Latest -- 10/26/01

In response to message posted by JenL_2:

Jen,,A picture is worth a 1000 words.

BIC

-- posted by Bob_in_CowTown

Top 15. Oct 26, 2001 9:44 PM

» smile_1 - Bear Market is close to over - tube runner indicator...

Bear Market is close to over - tube runner indicator...

is wall street playing a game of trick or treat...

my goal on this pac man game was to either hit level 20 or above 20,000 points to mark the end of the bear. Figured it would take me about a year off and on playing.

Finally made it today after market close with a point total of 22,068 got to level 13 before my pacmen expired.

Lame I know, but, sometimes persistence wins, sometimes it doesn't.

Let's see now what will drive this market higher?

I can't think of anything at the moment..., we have been hearing for the last few weeks how wall street types were looking past the abyss and discounting anthrax, war on terrorism, earnings etc

latest one is the stimulus package in conjunction with monetary policy is a can't miss for driving us higher... that it did, but is it sustainable

my guess is we have another leg down not to the lows unless we have another exogenous event (God forbid). Maybe 5-10% retrace. Many are convinced that seasonality is a can't miss. I am one, but have been growing skeptical considering what is coming at us (also many have picked up the seasonality theme as a can't miss).

huge numbers coming out next couple of weeks GDP, and unemployment...

a few days ago when the 10 year treasury was at 4.61%, I straight lined the 2001 S&P earnings estimates using a 8% which got me to estimated 2002 earnings of 46.548. Using this number and dividing by the 10 year treasury at that time of 4.61 put a fair value on S&P of approx. 1009.72
Gee about a 10% retrace from where we are today.

of course the 10 yr is now at 4.51% corresponding to S&P of 1032.11.

oh and of course we must remember the variables in the equation are interest rates and earnings...

I've got to go take my medication now, signing off.

Trick or Treat market in coming weeks?

I'll let ya know after my meds kick in...

-- posted by smile_1

Top 16. Oct 27, 2001 7:01 AM

» SteveT - Re: Bear Market is close to over - tube runner indicator...

In response to message posted by smile_1:

smile really enjoyed your post. That reminds me of an old saying. "A Smile increases your face value". Thanks!

-- posted by SteveT

Top 17. Oct 27, 2001 7:09 AM

» Rande - Re: The Latest -- 10/26/01

In response to message posted by Rande:

50/50 update --

Since 12/31/99

50/50 Total Stock/Total Bond -1.04%
(includes Total Bond through Friday close)

Also nice to see that the S&P 400 Midcap Index (MDY) is UP 7.0% since 12/31/99. STILL not your father's bear market, even after all that's been thrown at us.

-- posted by Rande

http://www.aqrcapital.com/the_bubble_has...

Top 18. Oct 27, 2001 12:51 PM

» David_Korn - Overvalued Market?

Rande, have you read this article? It seems to make a convincing argument that the market is still overvalued. I would appreciate your thoughts on it. Thanks

-- posted by David_Korn

Top 19. Oct 27, 2001 2:30 PM

» Kirk - Re: Re: The Latest -- 10/26/01

In response to message posted by Rande:

Cool chart.. nice Rally!
<img src=http://chart.bigcharts.com/bc3/intchart/... width=579 height=335>

Interesting how QQQ even had a test of the low on the 27th.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 20. Oct 27, 2001 4:25 PM

» Kirk - Rallies come fast

In response to message posted by Kirk:

What I hope is not lost on people is the size of rallies and how quick they come. Look at the graph in the post above this one.

Think about it. IF you just got into the market on 9/21 and said you'd be happy if you got 10% a year on your S&P500 fund, then you got your goal between Sept 21 and Oct 24th and the days since then are gravy.

Compare that 10% return to money markets paying a few percent.... and taxed at your full rate.

We could trade between Friday's close and +10% and end right here a year from now. Those in the market would have that 10% gain but those waiting on the sidelines for "confirmation" might get in when the market is 10% higher only to see their gains evaporate. I just can't see all this jumpin in and out unless you are a trader as a profession. That is no way to be "retired"... having to watch the market.

-- posted by Kirk