Terrorist 9/11 Attack - Discussion - Thread Full &amp; Closed

Top 1851. Oct 13, 2001 9:49 AM

» smile_1 - hate to say this... hope to God I am wrong

hate to say this... but the thought just crossed my mind, and I hope to God I am wrong.

Seems to me this Bin Laden guy is pretty crafty, if you were crafty where is the last place you would be at this time?

point is we are bombing the heck out of Afghanistan, looking for someone who might be in another country by now or even before the bombing started...

again hope I am wrong, if I am not wrong what do we do next...

let's say Bin Laden made it into Iran, or China...

what do we do?

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also, I think I heard our close allies (Brits) across the pond say, if we (the US) go into Iraq, they will not participate...

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the surgical bombing feels good to most Americans, but may be cosmetic in terms of ultimate goal (capturing and or killing Bin Laden)

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tactic which would be very disruptive to our economy, is take advantage of the huge gaps in our security, and bring the US economy to a screeching halt...

my point is we need to get these law makers in Washington going on passing Ashcroft's anti-terrorist legislation...

take a moment to contact your Congressman and Senator and email or snail mail them ---> you can start here @ Congress.org

insist they pass the anti-terrorist legislation quickly (last I heard the legislation is making its way through the process; house and senate have passed their own versions, and it may be in committee to reach compromise)...

also you may want to mention your thoughts on airline safety... e.g., insist that all bags on US flights be scanned, not just carryons, and that any flight which takes off with a checked bag must have a passenger....

you might even want to express your opinion on national id cards, the question posed above re: what if Bin Laden escaped to another country?, and the use of special ops (or even a new special sniper team) to carry out the mission of ridding the world of terrorists if the current method proves ineffectual...

-- posted by smile_1

Top 1852. Oct 13, 2001 9:58 AM

» walkerman - Re: Re: The Brownies are all right...

In response to message posted by Rande:
Rande, I hate to pick on your facts, especially when you are arguing with monkey-fodder banana-brain....but, without picking everything apart...just for starts....neither Ayatollah Kohmenei nor any other Iranians are Arabs.

-- posted by walkerman

Top 1853. Oct 13, 2001 10:02 AM

» JenL_2 - Bin Laden Blew It

Sure hope that Tom Petrie's analysis in 10/15 Barron's is correct ..... since he's a "veteran oil banker with extensive contacts in the Middle East" would expect that GW may be listening to him also.

Bin Laden Blew It

Veteran Mideast hand Tom Petrie says terrorist miscalculated response of U.S. and allies

By Leslie P. Norton

As U.S. and British forces continue their campaign to bring Osama bin Laden to justice, the terrorist appears to have made a crucial error in his effort to "Talibanize" the Muslim world. Says Tom Petrie, veteran oil banker with extensive contacts in the Middle East, the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon may have tipped the balance toward pro-Western forces in the region.

Bin Laden's master plan, Petrie says, called for turning Pakistan, the second-most populous Muslim nation, into a fundamentalist Islamic state like Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, giving him access to Pakistan's nuclear weapons. That, in turn, would allow him topple the Saudi government, which invited Western aid during the 1990-91 Gulf War, and "liberate" the holy places of Mecca and Medina. He could then possibly use nuclear warheads to destabilize key oil producers, including the House of Saud, which controls a quarter of the world's oil supply and a sixth of America's petroleum needs, providing him with a way to liberate other holy sites in the region, including the al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem.

Pakistan's government, however, has aligned itself with the U.S., despite anti-American demonstrations. Instead of alienating the Muslim world, the Bush Administration has deftly gained a coalition to ferret out and destroy al Qaeda, bin Laden's terror network.

Since before the 1973 oil crisis, Petrie has dispensed insights about the region and their implications for the energy markets and for the companies that extract energy resources. With his partner, Jim Parkman, he runs Denver-based Petrie Parkman, an investment banking firm that, among other things, has advised the Saudi government on the privatization of its gas industry.

When the Twin Towers fell, Petrie instantly divined the hand of bin Laden, as he previously had in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing and numerous other terrorist incidents. "In each of the events is a signature of behavior: a well-developed network, the establishment of 'plausible deniability' through the use of cover corporations for financing and hired hands for the actual execution, and exquisite timing. When I saw the second plane hit, there was no doubt in my mind."

After the September 11 attacks, bin Laden expected quick retaliatory bombings by the U.S., Petrie hypothesizes. Carrying his theory further, he thinks bin Laden assumed that, after taking heavy casualties, the U.S. would have withdrawn from the region completely, echoing America's pullout of Vietnam in the 1970s.

It hasn't turned out that way. The U.S. response has been exactly the opposite, reflects Petrie. "He thought Bush would be like Clinton" after the African embassies were bombed. "Instead, Bush amassed support, went into Afghanistan systematically and is attempting a surgical operation. That changed the model."

Middle East observers had feared that U.S. military reaction would mobilize popular opinion in bin Laden's favor. Instead, President Bush, heavy-handed with Pakistan at first, swiftly used a lighter hand. He sought help from Oman, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. He's won a once-unthinkable offer from Russia to share intelligence. Bush has insisted that civilian relief be a major part of the war against terrorism.

"By bringing the war to the U.S., he's made the Vietnam model irrelevant," Petrie reasons. "The attack was too powerful a threat, and united the country in a way we haven't been since the Second World War." Heightened domestic security may check the operations of the terrorist's cells in the U.S. "The actions he's taken have really diminished the odds of his achieving those goals. The ability to deprive him of his ability to operate is a virtual certainty."

What happens now? Bin Laden has co-opted Palestinian issues to align himself with broad sentiment in the Arab world, but has garnered narrower support than he probably expected. Though worried about destabilization, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the Emirates and Oman have remained tacitly pro-Western.

<img src="/files/mysites/jen6/oilbarrons10-15.gif" width=238 height=267 align="right"> How about Saudi Arabia, the key Middle East producer? There are longstanding economic ties between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, and the Saudi royal family has been seen as spendthrift, making it a major object of bin Laden's ire.

And yet, says Petrie, "The Saudi regime has undergone quite a transition over the last five years. The leadership provided by Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abd al-Aziz has developed a path to economic development and a notion of national interest that transcends the family interest. That's taken root today, and augurs well for the future."

Notwithstanding condemnation from Iran, Syria and Sudan, there is also tacit opposition to the "Talibanization" of the region. For such regimes, bin Laden is a challenge. Iran, for example, supports the Northern Alliance, which is trying to unseat the Taliban. As for Iraq, known to promote anti-U.S. terrorism, Petrie doesn't see Saddam Hussein as a teammate. "They are incompatible long-term allies and one will seek to eliminate the other. Saddam's best ploy to survive is to get rid of bin Laden."

What happens to Afghanistan, which has been ruled by the Taliban since it captured Kabul in 1995? Petrie sees early signs of dialogue among the seven hostile tribes and, among the more moderate factions, a desire to recreate a confederation under a titular leadership, perhaps the Afghan king. "It's early in the process, but there's a sense that if the U.S. gets the job done, a replacement organization will be created. Will it evolve into five or six warring tribes and will another Taliban be their fate? The past 30 years have been marked by violence, and we shouldn't underestimate the longing for the relative peace they had under the king until 1973." Still, it's clearly the $64,000 question, and Afghanistan is likely to remain a flashpoint.

The effects on the oil market are well discounted: In the week after September 11, the war premium evaporated and the price sank from $27 a barrel to $23. Oil will doubtless be whipsawed, but the world has also dipped swiftly into recession, depressing prices. If, however, the U.S. engages with Iraq and its oil supply is suddenly yanked from the market, prices could soar.

Yet Petrie maintains that "the mid- to high 20s isn't sustainable unless bin Laden is successful in taking over the Middle East. But that would plunge the world into a recession" the depths of which we can't foresee. Petrie assumes crude will average $22 next year (ranging between $17 and $28), down from $25 this year, and natural gas will average $2.75 per thousand cubic feet, down from $4 this year, barring "infrastructure interruptions."

And he sees plenty of upside in oil companies. Among his favorites: Anadarko Petroleum ("a world-class independent producer and the highest quality in the sector"); Ocean Energy ("very well positioned in the Gulf of Mexico and Africa"); Occidental Petroleum ("25% upside and the yield gives you a 30% total return"); Murphy Oil ("outstanding exploration in non-OPEC regions"); and Kerr McGee and Phillips Petroleum, each of which have the potential for 35% upside, according to his calculations. "This is a neglected value category with good cash flows," which might be aided by further consolidation. Last week, for example, Burlington Resources agreed to acquire Canadian Hunter for $2.1 billion in cash.

And Petrie foresees an inevitable overhaul of U.S. thinking about domestic reserves -- particularly development in the Alaskan wilderness. "The ability to provide flexibility at the margin in crisis environments is profoundly important." Thus, Alaska players might fare well. Phillips and Anadarko have made additional discoveries and "have the best leverage by virtue of positioning." Other traditional players likely to benefit are BP and ExxonMobil. And with Alaska home to 35 trillion feet of proven gas reserves, of which 25 trillion are developed, beneficiaries include Willbros Group, Halliburton and Fluor.

Subscribe to WSJ & Barron's Online @ http://www.wsj.com

.....Jen

-- posted by JenL_2

Top 1854. Oct 13, 2001 11:00 AM

» rasputin - Re: Bin Laden Blew It

That was a very valuable contribution.

I think it's great that so many now agree that bin Laden (the mongrel dog) is not at all motivated by religion. I agree as some other poster has said that it is simply about power. Maybe the dog is trying to prove something. Despite his relative success, I believe he is still an underachiever, particularly when compared to his family members. That's probably what he's trying to prove. That he is somebody. To the world, but mainly to his family. A rebellious punk. Power and aggression are his drugs of choice. Overcompensating for his basic inadequacy.

-- posted by rasputin

Top 1855. Oct 13, 2001 11:05 AM

» BPyles - bin Laden blew it!

What do you expect from someone who had 54 siblings...can you imagine having to compete with that many? Wonder how many wicked step-mothers (if that is what they are called) he had? Bound to be one loser in that many. Would guess he is the family's biggest loser.

-- posted by BPyles

Top 1856. Oct 13, 2001 11:16 AM

» DanG_6 - Re: Basic inadequacy

In response to message posted by rasputin:

Inadequacy. Hey, I think that could be it, Rasputin. That could definitely explain his anger. He's probably even inadequate below the waist. Only his camel knows for sure.

-- posted by DanG_6

to write to the President and Vice President, click here

Top 1857. Oct 13, 2001 11:55 AM

» smile_1 - Re: hate to say this... hope to God I am wrong

In response to message posted by smile_1:

to write to Congress, click here

to see what others across our nation are saying to our elected officials, click here

-- posted by smile_1

Top 1858. Oct 13, 2001 12:30 PM

» rasputin - Re: Re: hate to say this... hope to God I am wrong

In response to message posted by smile_1:

Wow...smile, what an interesting site...the "what others are saying..." site...very fascinating...quite a find.

-- posted by rasputin

http://www.amw.com/amw3.html

Top 1859. Oct 13, 2001 1:21 PM

» smile_1 - Ras Re: hate to say this... hope to God I am wrong

In response to message posted by rasputin:

Agree Ras interesting site,

just popped off two seperate letters: 1) to congress, and the following letter to the Pres & VP which essentially summarizes a lot of my concerns.

_____________________________________

Date:
10/13/2001

Subject:
Economic stimulus - Bond Market & letter of concern

From:
Smile

Recipients:
President Bush ,
Vice President Cheney

Message:
God Bless You both and your families for your service to this country.

Please consider the following re: economic stimulus:

1) the biggest economic stimulus you could get with the least amount of cost is lower long term interest rates. The mortgage refinance market has the potential of putting back thousands of dollars in consumers hands which can be used for discretionary spending.

Funny thing is we were almost there.

solution: administration policies and statements consistent with sound fiscal policy promoting lower long term rates (retire 5, 10 & 30 year debt, no deficit spending etc).

If long term rates on 30 year mortgages fell below 6% you would see a wave of mortgage refis, which would work its way through the economy, and create real demand.

Corporations will spend on cap-ex when there is legitimate demand. Artificial supply created by tax incentives to encourage cap ex spending by corporations, is not beneficial in the long run, if true demand does not exist.

2) the problem re: getting the public back to flying is the security issues (see letter to TX reps below for security concerns). solve this, and you will solve 75% of the problem.

Keep up the great work.
________________________________________

my email to congress:

Date:
10/13/2001

Subject:
America Reacts - Message to Congress from a constituent

From:
Smile

Recipients:
Sen. Gramm (TX),
Sen. Hutchison (TX),
Rep. Brady (TX)

Message:
I want to thank you all for your service to our country.

I also want to express some concerns as follows:

1) airline safety - please plug the huge security gaps:

a) currently non carryon bags placed on airlines are not scanned or searched, this practice needs to stop immediately. All bags must be scanned, (and searched if probable cause is indicated).

b) also anyone can send a bag on a US domestic flight across the country and not even be on the flight. This also needs to stop immediately.

c) airport security should not be left to private for profit companies. First line of defense should not be left to amateurs, high school drop outs, and criminals.

d) once ticketed passengers pass security, they should not be able to purchase objects at sundry shops which could be used as weapons (eye glass kits which have sharp pointed tool inside - Austin Bergstrom Airport)

2) anti-terrorist legislation - please act swiftly to pass this important legislation.

also I would not be opposed to having a national US id card system which would be required for entry to Airports, and other potential terrorist targets.

3) what if ? - what if Bin Laden is not in Afghanistan? What if he has already escaped to another country like Iran or maybe China - what are we prepared to do.

the surgical bombing feels good to most Americans, but may be cosmetic in terms of ultimate goal (capturing and or killing Bin Laden)

part of the answer maybe the use of special ops. to get the job done (I'm sure if we put our mind to it we could get very creative in the use of covert operations to rid the world of known terrorists). Please start thinking about other creative methods of ridding the world of terrorists (I stand behind what President Bush is doing, but if it proves ineffective, we must have a fall back plan. I also agree with President Bush that this campaign against terrorists must not stop with Bin Laden.)

Use of AMW (America's Most Wanted) in conjunction with a monetary $$$ reward system is an example of thinking outside the box and may be part of the answer:

-- posted by smile_1