Ask Rande 10,000+

Top 506. Nov 19, 2001 11:34 AM

» Rande - Re: Re: Re: Definiton of a Bull Market ?

In response to message posted by DanG_6:

Dan,

I caught that article this morning too. Talk about a "wall of worry!" smile

-- posted by Rande

Top 507. Nov 19, 2001 11:45 AM

» DanG_6 - Re: Re: Re: Re: Definiton of a Bull Market ?

In response to message posted by Rande:

Yep, Rande. Walls of worry. That's what bull markets are built of. Let's just hope they keep worrying!

-- posted by DanG_6

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we...

Top 508. Nov 19, 2001 12:15 PM

» Kirk - Re: Re: Re: Definiton of a Bull Market ?

In response to message posted by DanG_6:

The interesting thing I got out of the article is that "expert" after "expert" was maligning this rally, assuring us that it was just a flash in the pan and that we have much more downside action to come. Of course that doesn't PROVE we're in a new bull market, but I've never yet seen a bull market start without one analyst after another pooh-poohing it for the first several months or even longer. Very encouraging!

Good point Dan. You've been one of the few on our TA thread saying bull... I've been bullish... but I'm almost ALWAYS bullish by definition. smile

On TV, it seems most pooh pooh it saying we'll need to see a test or capitulation in the classic sense and yet the data often says "no test" and you have to be creative at how you look at capitulation such as the way Hays does it.

One idea I had is that 9/11 attack gave us BOTH a test and capitulation where 1100ish might have held had we not had the attack... I actually bought some Agilent on 9/10 just before the attack (it is up a buck plus from there now) thinking the test was about over...
the chart even shows a doji for 9/10
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we...
and the futures were up until the 2nd plane crashed into the WTC which to me confirmed a terrorist attack.

That chart I just gave even shows the 9/10 doji was a lower close on lower volume.... so I think the attack gave us a massive capitulation that washed out the last of those that tend to get scared out.

of course, I could be wrong. smile

-- posted by Kirk

Top 509. Nov 19, 2001 1:00 PM

» Thruhiker - Re: Re: Rande,

In response to message posted by Rande:

Rande, your underlying assumptions were correct; thanks for the answer.

Now a follow-up. Mom called and left a msg that she is considering an annuity. Off the top of my head I can't think of a reason why a nearly 70 year old with a modest income would want to do this. Am I missing something?

Thanks again.

-- posted by Thruhiker

Top 510. Nov 19, 2001 2:24 PM

» Rande - Re: Re: Re: Rande,

In response to message posted by Thruhiker:

Thru,

I've long contended that there are two axioms when it comes to annuities:

1. Annuities aren't bought, they're sold.
2. Nobody ever woke up in the morning and said, "Today I have to buy an annuity."

Maybe this is a chance to test the thesis. Ask your mom where the idea of an annuity came from.

You're not missing anything.

-- posted by Rande

Top 511. Nov 19, 2001 3:04 PM

» Bernie777 - Ultra Bull Profund

Rande, Since I value your judgement a great deal please give me your opinion on the Ultra profunds. The Ultra OTC and the Ultra Bull. One follows the QQQ's and the other the s&p 500. They both double the returns on the way up and down. Also I am in the Fidelity Total Market Index but I hear Jim Cramer and others touting the s&p index as a better bet. Thanks.

-- posted by Bernie777

Top 512. Nov 19, 2001 3:14 PM

» SPYDR22000 - long term losses

Rande,

Long term losses offset first long term gains,
then short term gains, then $3000 of ordinary
income, correct?

Thanks In Advance-

-- posted by SPYDR22000

Top 513. Nov 19, 2001 3:20 PM

» Rande - Re: long term losses

In response to message posted by SPYDR22000:

SPY,

Gains and losses net against each other by like kind, long to short. Where net losses exceed net gains after it's all said and done, then ordinary income can be offset up to $3,000 in any single year with any unused losses carried over to subsequent years by type without expiration.

-- posted by Rande

Top 514. Nov 19, 2001 3:21 PM

» Rande - Re: Ultra Bull Profund

In response to message posted by Bernie777:

Bernie,

The Ulta funds are a great way to double both your pleasure and your pain, depending on what the market decides to do. If you bet the wrong way and get wiped out, you'll at least have the consolation of being "sophisticated."

-- posted by Rande