Ask Rande 10,000+

Top 176. Sep 25, 2001 9:18 PM

» BrianHull - Re: Re: Re: Re: TEFQX

In response to message posted by Rande:

I could be totally wrong but it seems that when the Market has an up day TEFQX has a larger percentage gain than VTSMX. The converse is also true unfortunantly. Maybe I should bite the bullet and move over into the Total Market were eventually I want to be. Most of my retirement money is out of my control,which is probably a good thing. It is invested by my employer and is 80% bonds which is one reason I was so aggressive with this small %.

-- posted by BrianHull

Top 177. Sep 26, 2001 5:53 AM

» Rande - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: TEFQX

In response to message posted by BrianHull:

Brian,

I asked the question for a purpose, to get you thinking about why you really own this investment. There should be a reason for owning every investment in your portfolio -- ideally, you should thoroughly know what you own and why you own it. Too often, we buy things based on some "hot tip," or third-party (friend, relative, stranger) recommendation without stopping to think WHY the investment belongs in OUR portfolio. Hate to make a gambling analogy, because a pass line bet, as relatively conservative as it might be, is still gambling whereas prudent, long-term investing is not. But plunking down a wad on a "hot" fund is like being at the crap table and impulsively throwing money at "yo eleven." You know you should be playing it "conservative" and just stick to the pass line with odds, but every once in awhile you just can't help yourself when it comes to the center one-roll sucker bets.

Having said all that, you may have solid reasons to believe that having something extra in a B2B-specific mutual fund makes sense for you at this point going forward, based on your analysis of the market and the sector. On the other hand, it seems more like you picked up the fund based on nothing more than a "hot tip," and now that you've lost most of the investment you're reluctant to let it go out of regret before you can somehow at least break even. My own view on B2B is that the promise for productivity efficiencies and cost reduction for businesses taking advantage of online resources is tremendous. But while it seems the macro benefits to businesses and the economy in general should prove increasingly positive in the years to come, how that plays out in the short term with respect to individual companies trying to capitalize on B2B transactions exclusively as part of their main business model is a crap shoot at best.

My general suggestion is that you forget about the past loss insofar as you are able and make a non-emotional decision based on what makes sense for you going forward from this point on. And maybe it doesn't have to be all or nothing for you. Maybe you leave a small portion in the fund so you can continue to "explore" (have a bet on) the B2B area while at the same time diversifying the bulk of your "core" portfolio as much as possible. Good luck.

P.S. You know, I trust, that the way this usually works is the fund will take off like a rocket once you're out of it, not unlike the way "11" pops up when you don't have a bet on. smile

-- posted by Rande

Top 178. Sep 27, 2001 5:49 PM

» Rande - Financial Trivia Time

Financial Trivia Time

We've talked about how the market has recovered from past exogenous shocks -- from the 1906 San Francisco earthquake to Pearl Harbor to the Kennedy Assassination. Doesn anyone know....

1. What event in 1955 caused the NYSE to suffer it's worst price delcine since 1929 (6.5%)?

2. There was a much earlier terrorist attack on Wall Street. What was the nature of it and in what year did it occur?

-- posted by Rande

Top 179. Sep 27, 2001 5:55 PM

» snaimon - Re: Financial Trivia Time

In response to message posted by Rande:

1. [Just guessing.. I was 6] Ike's heart attack.
2. WTC bomb in parking garage in 1993.

Stan

-- posted by snaimon

Top 180. Sep 27, 2001 6:01 PM

» BrianHull - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: TEFQX

In response to message posted by Rande:

Rande, Thank you for your help. You make a lot of sense and I like your analogy about gambling. I just started reading "Bogles" book "Common Sense on Mutual Funds". I plan on finishing the book before I make any more investments. Thanks again.

-- posted by BrianHull

Top 181. Sep 27, 2001 6:05 PM

» BPyles - Also guessing

Eisenhower's heart attach was my guess also. First guess was Stalin death but believe it came before.

Second. The huge power failure NY suffered

-- posted by BPyles

Top 182. Sep 27, 2001 6:15 PM

» reporter20 - Re: Financial Trivia Time

In response to message posted by Rande:

Wasn't there a bombing (dont remember the year) that involved J.P. Morgan? Early thirties maybe?

-- posted by reporter20

Top 183. Sep 27, 2001 6:26 PM

» Rande - Re: Financial Trivia Time

In response to message posted by Rande:

This Suite101 crowd is too sharp. Stan and Betty nailed the Eisenhower heart attack and Reporter is close enough for government work:

1. What event in 1955 caused the NYSE to suffer it's worst price delcine since 1929 (6.5%)?

2. There was a much earlier terrorist attack on Wall Street. What was the nature of it and in what year did it occur?

1. In 1955, the Dow lost 6.5% in just three days after word leaked out that President Eisenhower had suffered a heart attack while visiting Denver, CO.

2. In 1920, a horse-drawn wagon pulled up to the front of the J.P. Morgan building at the corner of Broad and Wall Streets and exploded, killing 40 people and injuring 300 others. The blast shattered windows for blocks around, threw the financial district into panic, and left the streets in the immediate vicinity strewn with the bodies of the dead and injured. No suspects were ever caught. The scars from the explosion are still visible on the building at 23 Broad Street, just below the second windowsill, on the east end of the facade.

As has always been the case, the markets recovered and life went on.

-- posted by Rande

Top 184. Sep 28, 2001 1:37 PM

» Rande - Here's some interesting numbers on the Dow:

Here's some interesting numbers on the Dow:

Event Reaction Dates %Gain/Loss
Days After Reaction Dates
22 63 126
Fall-of-France 05/09/1940 - 06/22/1940 -17.1 -0.5 8.4 7.0
Pearl-Harbor 12/06/1941 - 2/10/1941 -6.5 3.8 -2.9 -9.6
Truman-Upset-Victory 11/02/1948 - 1/10/1948 -4.9 1.6 3.5 1.9
Korean-War 06/23/1950 - 07/13/1950 -12.0 9.1 15.3 19.2
Eisenhower-Heart-Attack 09/23/1955 - 9/26/1955 -6.5 0.0 6.6 11.7
Sputnik 10/03/1957 - 10/22/1957 -9.9 5.5 6.7 7.2
Cuban-Missile-Crisis 08/23/1962 - 0/23/1962 -9.4 15.1 21.3 28.7
JFK-Assassination 11/21/1963 - 1/22/1963 -2.9 7.2 12.4 15.1
U.S.-Bombs-Cambodia 04/29/1970 - 05/26/1970 -14.4 9.9 20.3 20.7
Kent-State-Shootings 05/04/1970 - 5/14/1970 -4.2 0.4 3.8 13.5
Arab-Oil-Embargo 10/18/1973 - 12/05/1973 -17.9 9.3 10.2 7.2
Nixon-Resigns 08/09/1974 - 08/29/1974 -15.5 7.9 -5.7 12.5
U.S.S.R.-in-Afghanistan 12/24/1979 - 1/03/1980 -2.2 6.7 -4.0 6.8
Hunt-Silver-Crisis 02/13/1980 - 03/27/1980 -15.9 6.7 16.2 25.8
Falkland-Islands-War 04/01/1982 - 5/07/1982 -4.3 -8.5 -9.8 20.8
U.S.-Invades-Grenada 10/24/1983 - 11/07/1983 -2.7 3.9 -2.8 -3.2
U.S.-Bombs-Libya 04/15/1986 - 4/21/1986 -2.6 -4.3 -4.1 -1.0
Financial-Panic-'87 10/02/1987 - 10/19/1987 -34.2 11.5 11.4 15.0
Invasion-of-Panama 12/15/1989 - 2/20/1989 -1.9 -2.7 0.3 8.0
Gulf-War-Ultimatum 12/24/1990 - 1/16/1991 -4.3 17.0 19.8 18.7
Gorbachev-Coup 08/16/1991 - 8/19/1991 -2.4 4.4 1.6 11.3
ERM-U.K.-Curr-Crisis 09/14/1992 - 0/16/1992 -6.0 0.6 3.2 9.2
World-Trade-Ctr-Bombing 02/26/1993 - 02/27/1993 -0.5 2.4 5.1 8.5
Russia-Mexico-Orange-Co 10/11/1994 - 12/20/1994 -2.8 2.7 8.4 20.7
Asian-Stock-Mkt-Crisis 10/07/1997 - 10/27/1997 -12.4 8.8 10.5 25.0
Russian-LTCM-Crisis 08/18/1998 - 10/08/1998 -11.3 15.1 24.7 33.7

Mean -8.1 4.5 6.9 12.9
Median -6.2 4.2 6.7 12.1

Days = Market Days

-- posted by Rande