Market Indicators - Investor Sentiment

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Top 471. Feb 17, 2002 5:45 AM

» SteveT - 2-18-02 Sentiment

The II survey once again varied little. While the AAII poll had an increase in Bulls to the point the ratio is above 70%.
From Barron's 2/18/02

Investors Intelligence Bulls 47.4% Bears 29.5% Correction 23.1%
47.4/(47.4+29.5)=61.64%
Four Week Average =64.76%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 52.6%
Four Week Average = 50.03%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 45.2%Bears 16.1% Neutral 38.7%
45.5/(45.2+16.1)=73.74%
Four Week Average = 63.83%

Historic dates for comparison and S&P 500 Close.
7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39
4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25
9-10-01 47.34% S&P 500 Close 1085.78
9-17-01 42.11% S&P 500 Close 1038.77
9-21-01 41.08% S&P 500 Close 965.80

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 54.8%
Four Week Average = 59.28%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com

The CBOE Put/Call ratio 10 day moving average is at .89, with Fridays close at 1.15. Does all this mean the next 10% move in the broad market will be up or down? We shall see.

-- posted by SteveT

http://www.investors.com/learn/ICmarket1...

Top 472. Feb 17, 2002 5:55 AM

» Q_out - Re: Re: Re: 10 DMA Put/Call Ratio

In response to message posted by Slick:

The Put/Call ratio is a contrary indicator. It closed Friday at 1.15. Generally a value above 1.0 (even intraday) is enough to spark a short-term rally. Bob apparently watches the 10-day moving average for clues about longer term trends. Right now the 10-day average is at its highest level since September.

I'm going to do some further research on this and should have more to say later.

BTW, this indicator didn't work for Bob during October 2000.

<img src="/files/mysites/qout/bhoestarts.gif" width=53 height=34 align="left">
Q_out
DISCLAIMER: My words and observations are general in nature, and are not meant as specific investment advice. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Q_out

Top 473. Feb 18, 2002 5:32 PM

» Q_out - Re: 10 DMA Put/Call Ratio

In response to message posted by Q_out:

Here's a chart for 2000 and 2001 of the S&P 500. Those dates marked in gray are times when the 10-day average of the Put/Call ratio was below 0.45 indicating excessive optimism. The dates marked in yellow are times when the 10-day average for the Put/Call ratio was above 0.80 indicating excessive pessimism.

Notice that the Put/Call ratio was below 0.45 for a month as the market topped.

-- posted by Q_out

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/

Top 474. Feb 20, 2002 10:06 AM

» ACousins - Bernie's sentiment tool

FWIW, you can put in a ticker symbol and get sentiment info in the box to the left. He also has market data in the right column.

-- posted by ACousins

Top 475. Feb 23, 2002 3:18 PM

» SteveT - 2-25-02 Sentiment

The II survey once again varied little. While the AAII poll had a big drop in Bulls with virtually all of them becoming Bearish.
From Barron's 2/25/02

Investors Intelligence Bulls 47.9% Bears 29.2% Correction 22.9%
47.9/(47.9+29.2)= 62.13%
Four Week Average =63.07%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 52.1%
Four Week Average = 51.20%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 36.4%Bears 25.4% Neutral 38.2%
36.4/(36.4+25.4) = 58.9%
Four Week Average = 65.4%

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 63.6%
Four Week Average = 58.85%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com

The CBOE Put/Call ratio 10 day moving average is at .86 with Fridays close at .94. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we... The VIX Market Volatility Index closed Friday at 24.89. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5evix&d=t

-- posted by SteveT

Top 476. Mar 4, 2002 2:20 PM

» SteveT - 3/4/02 Sentiment

From Barron's 3/4/02

Investors Intelligence Bulls 46.8% Bears 31.9% Correction 21.3%
46.8/(46.8+31.9)= 59.47%
Four Week Average =61.46%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 53.2%
Four Week Average = 52.35%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 44.4%Bears 20.4% Neutral 35.2%
44.4/(44.4+20.4) = 68.52%
Four Week Average = 65.85%

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 55.6%
Four Week Average = 59.13%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com

As of March 4, 2002 close
The CBOE Put/Call ratio 10 day moving average is at .8 with todays close at .65. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we... The VIX Market Volatility Index closed today at 22.08. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5evix&d=t

-- posted by SteveT

Top 477. Mar 7, 2002 4:10 PM

» CaptRon - 3/7 Sentiment

In response to message posted by SteveT:

Steve...hot off the press:

Category: TA
From: circular (Perry Leopold)
To: ALL
Date Posted: March 07, 2002 at 18:21:30
Subject: AAII numbers

Bulls: 53% (second highest so far in 2002)
Bears: 16% (lowest so far in 2002)

-- posted by CaptRon

Top 478. Mar 7, 2002 4:50 PM

» SteveT - Re: 3/7 Sentiment

In response to message posted by CaptRon:

CaptRon, Thank you very much.

-- posted by SteveT

Top 479. Mar 10, 2002 7:37 AM

» SteveT - 3/11/02 Sentiment

We seem to have a few more bulls on the AAII poll, while the II poll remains stable. Will the recent rally change these numbers even more? Are we due for some backing and filling? We shall see.
From Barron's 3/11/02

Investors Intelligence Bulls 47.9% Bears 29.2% Correction 22.9%
47.9/(47.9+29.2)=62.13%
Four Week Average =61.33%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 52.1%
Four Week Average = 52.5%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 53.3%Bears 15.6% Neutral 31.1%
53.3/(53.3+15.6)=77.42%
Four Week Average = 69.84%

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 46.7%
Four Week Average = 55.18%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com

As of March 8, 2002 close
The CBOE Put/Call ratio 10 day moving average is at .71 with Fridays close at .62. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we... The VIX Market Volatility Index closed Friday at 21.61. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5evix&d=t

-- posted by SteveT