Market Indicators - Investor Sentiment
- SteveT
- SteveT
- CaptRon
- SteveT
- CaptRon
- SteveT
- CaptRon
- Q_out
- Slick
- rasputin101
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» SteveT - 2-4-02 Sentiment
Once again the two polls seem to be moving in different directions with the AAII being more noticeable.From Barron's 2/4/02
Investors Intelligence Bulls 51.6% Bears 26.8% Correction 21.8%
51.6/(51.6+26.8) =65.82%
Four Week Average =68.04%
A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%
Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 48.6%
Four Week Average = 47.95%
The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 45.5%Bears 22.7% Neutral 31.8%
45.5/(45.5+22.7) = 66.72%
Four Week Average = 61.11%
Historic dates for comparison and S&P 500 Close.
7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39
4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25
9-10-01 47.34% S&P 500 Close 1085.78
9-17-01 42.11% S&P 500 Close 1038.77
9-21-01 41.08% S&P 500 Close 965.80
Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 54.5%
Four Week Average = 58.88%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/
-- posted by SteveT
» SteveT - 2/11/02
Both polls show fewer bulls with a more noticeable drop in the AAII survey.From Barron's 2/11/02
Investors Intelligence Bulls 48.5% Bears 28.9% Correction 22.6%
48.5/(48.5+28.9) = 62.66%
Four Week Average =66.25%
A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%
Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 51.5%
Four Week Average = 48.98%
The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 37.5%Bears 22.9% Neutral 39.6%
37.5/(37.5+22.9) =62.09%
Four Week Average = 58.2%
Historic dates for comparison and S&P 500 Close.
7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39
4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25
9-10-01 47.34% S&P 500 Close 1085.78
9-17-01 42.11% S&P 500 Close 1038.77
9-21-01 41.08% S&P 500 Close 965.80
Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 62.5%
Four Week Average = 63.2%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/
I am going to try to add something new this week. Since the sentiment data is lagging in time I am going to on a trail basis include the CBOE Put Call ratio. If someone has a better source post it here and I will try to include it. For this week I will use the Friday close data from the CBOE web site. Put/Call Ratio: .73
-- posted by SteveT
» CaptRon - Re: 2/11/02
In response to message posted by SteveT:FWIW, AAII sentiment figures released each Thurs.
From Crystal Ball poster:
Category: TA
From: circular (Perry Leopold)
To: ALL
Date Posted: February 14, 2002 at 20:44:29
Subject: AAII sentiment
This week's stats show 45% bulls, 16% bears. That's the lowest number of bears since 12/10, which I believe was the 52 wk low.
btw... seems every week approx 40% of the AAII folks take a pass, or a nap. And that's often the majority.
-- posted by CaptRon
» SteveT - Re: Re: 2/11/02
In response to message posted by CaptRon:Thanks Ron! It seems the AAII group and II "Pros" often go in different directions with the AAII gang more volatile. BTW you ever notice the label Lou Rukeyser hangs on those undecided? Chickens
Thanks again. I really appreciate the way this site works. Many hands make light work.
-- posted by SteveT
» CaptRon - Re: Re: Re: 2/11/02
In response to message posted by SteveT:Lol, Steve...you're right...
BTW, I believe Lou made tactical error in
canning Bob Nurock a few years ago. Elves signals were worth something when he was in charge of 'em...But Lou doesn't like URSA types..
any of 'em:
http://www.markpoyser.com/beartypes.htm
(Remember Dudack?)
Best signal recently is when Lou goes on vacation, market tanks....8-)
-- posted by CaptRon
» SteveT - Re: Re: Re: Re: 2/11/02
In response to message posted by CaptRon:Ron Thanks for the WS Follies link. That is a keeper.
Yes those Elves do have quite a record. Do you think if/when Lou begins the Elves Index again they could restructure it somehow? It maybe more useful to predict the S&P 500 or Wilshire 5000 90 days out with the usual 5% ranges?
-- posted by SteveT
» CaptRon - Elves
In response to message posted by SteveT:Steve, possibly, but current elves signals are for entertainment more than investment, JMHO...
as long as Lous unwilling to entertain bearish views.
A few, Eisen for example, are worth noting, but most are props for filling time.
There are many better trading/investment info sources than TV (or Radio..8-)..) personalities..
Again, JMHO....
Enjoy the weekend....8-)
-- posted by CaptRon
» Q_out - Re: 10 DMA Put/Call Ratio
In response to message posted by Kirk:Put/Call keeps getting higher.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we...
10-day MA now at 0.89.
<img src="/files/mysites/qout/bhoestarts.gif" width=53 height=34 align="left">
Q_out
DISCLAIMER: My words and observations are general in nature, and are not meant as specific investment advice. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.
-- posted by Q_out
» rasputin101 - Re: Re: Re: 10 DMA Put/Call Ratio
In response to message posted by Slick:"Back to investing 101 for me Thanks ...Slick"
Cool
-- posted by rasputin101
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