Market Indicators - Investor Sentiment

Top 451. Dec 23, 2001 7:31 AM

» SteveT - 12-24-01 Sentiment

Happy Holidays. Once again the stability continues in the II poll while the amateurs seem to be less sure. The AAII poll indicates some of the Bulls and Neutrals became Bearish.
From Barron?s 12/24//01

Investors Intelligence Bulls 46% Bears 28% Correction 26%
46/(46+28)= 62.16%
Four Week Average =61.29%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 54%
Four Week Average = 54.8%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 52.5%Bears 26.2% Neutral 21.3%
52.5/(52.5+26.2)= 66.71
Four Week Average = 74.11%

Historic dates for comparison and S&P 500 Close.
7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39
4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25
9-10-01 47.34% S&P 500 Close 1085.78
9-17-01 42.11% S&P 500 Close 1038.77
9-21-01 41.08% S&P 500 Close 965.80

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 47.5%
Four Week Average = 39.4%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

Top 452. Dec 30, 2001 8:30 AM

» SteveT - 12-31-01

The trend of the II stability and AAII almost weekly wide swings continue. Happy New Year
From Barron's 12/31//01

Investors Intelligence Bulls 48.4% Bears 27.3% Correction 24.3%
48.4/(48.4+27.3) = 63.94%
Four Week Average =61.54%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 51.6%
Four Week Average = 54.2%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 57.7%Bears 26.9% Neutral 15.4%
57.7/(57.7+26.9) = 68.2%
Four Week Average = 71.54%

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 42.3%
Four Week Average = 42.35%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

Top 453. Jan 9, 2002 2:56 PM

» SteveT - 1-7-02 Sentiment

Sorry I did not get this up sooner.

The trend of the II stability and AAII almost weekly wide swings continues. This week it looks like some of the amateur Bulls became Neutral.
From Barron's 1/7/02 hard copy page MW61

Investors Intelligence Bulls 49% Bears 27.5% Correction 23.5%
49/(49+27.5) = 64.05%
Four Week Average =62.71%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 51%
Four Week Average = 53.3%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 51.1%Bears 24.4% Neutral 24.4% *does not equal 100%
51.1/(51.1+24.4) = 67.68%
Four Week Average = 70.83%

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 48.8%
Four Week Average = 44.35%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

Top 454. Jan 10, 2002 8:53 AM

» JenL_2 - II Bulls/Bears

copied from the "US Stock Market" thread:

Author: lcha
Date: January 10, 2002 8:18 AM
Subject: II Bulls/Bears

As of 1/9/2001, the Investors Intelligence ratio of bulls to bears was just over 2.3. This is the highest since the beginning of 1999. This ratio rarely exceeds this level by much.

-- posted by JenL_2

Top 455. Jan 12, 2002 8:25 AM

» Q_out - Re: Stock Trader's Almanac

In response to message posted by Kirk:

Thanks, Kirk, for posting that link to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Buying that book has been on my T0 DO list for 2002 since I heard Len Walter recommend it on the radio around the holidays. Len said it was the single most important book in helping him make money in the market the past four or five years.

Now occasionally he can get dyslexic in his market reports as he tries to cram a few more qoutes in his allotted 60 seconds. I've heard him reverse the prices on gold and oil for example. But I do believe he said that this book sold for about four times Amazon's price down near the Chicago Stock Exchange. smile

That makes it a deal at thrice the price!

<img src="/files/mysites/qout/bhoestarts.gif" width=53 height=34 align="left">
Q_out
DISCLAIMER: My words and observations are general in nature, and are not meant as specific investment advice. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Q_out

Top 456. Jan 14, 2002 2:57 PM

» SteveT - 1-14-02 Sentiment

Both polls have more Bulls than last week with II going over 50% for the first time since late July.
From Barron's 1/14/02

Investors Intelligence Bulls 52.6% Bears 22.7% Correction 24.7%
52.6/(52.6+22.7) = 69.85%
Four Week Average =65.01%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 47.4%
Four Week Average = 51%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 54.8%Bears 21.9% Neutral 23.3% *Last weeks figures did not add up to 100%. No change was offered this week.
54.8/(54.8+21.9) = 71.45%
Four Week Average = 68.45%

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 45.2%
Four Week Average = 46%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

http://money.cnn.com/2002/01/14/investin...

Top 457. Jan 14, 2002 4:42 PM

» sillyme101 - Merrill cuts stock allocation

Could be a bullish sign, usually doing the opposite to the "expert opinion" is profitable

Brokerage recommends buying more bonds, saying stocks overpriced.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. told investors Monday to pare the percentage of stocks in their portfolios, saying stock prices seem to be overinflated.

"We have commented that there is a thin line between a liquidity-driven market that anticipates improving fundamentals and a bubble," chief U.S. strategist Richard Bernstein said in a research note. "The equity market may have stepped over that line."

Merrill recommended that stocks make up only 50 percent of a portfolio, with 30 percent in bonds and 20 percent in cash. Previously, Merrill had recommended 60 percent stock allocation, along with 20 percent bonds and 20 percent cash.

Since Sept. 21, 2001, the last day of a dramatic selloff triggered by the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, the Dow Jones industrial average has risen more than 21 percent, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 18 percent, and the Nasdaq composite index has risen a whopping 42 percents.

Bernstein's comments echoed those last week of Robert Doll, chief investment officer at Merrill Lynch Investment Managers, who said corporate earnings estimates were too high for 2002. Though stock prices would rise in 2002, they are still too high in comparison to companies' earnings, Doll and Bernstein both said.

Merrill and other brokerage firms have suffered from a decline in stock prices and investment activity that began in early 2000, along with an economic recession in the United States that likely began in March 2001. Last week, Merrill announced it is cutting about 9,000 jobs in an effort to cut costs.

Merrill (MER: Research, Estimates) shares fell $1.12 Friday to close at $57.24.

-- posted by sillyme101

Top 458. Jan 21, 2002 4:24 PM

» SteveT - 1-21-02 Sentiment

Once again the II poll is fairly stable but the AAII poll shows a HUGE drop in Bulls. Could this mean a bottom is near? Do amateurs know more than the pros? It looks to me like the past year or so Sentiment has been of little use for a short-term indication of market direction. None the less.
From Barron's 1/21/02

Investors Intelligence Bulls 51.6% Bears 24.7% Correction 23.7%
51.6/(51.6+24.7) = 67.63
Four Week Average =66.36%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 48.4%
Four Week Average = 49.6%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 29.5%Bears 29.5% Neutral 41%
29.5/(29.5+29.5) = 50%
Four Week Average = 65.28%

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 70.5%
Four Week Average = 51.7%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

Top 459. Jan 27, 2002 3:52 PM

» SteveT - 1-28-02 Sentiment

A few AAII Neutrals made up their minds for this week. Once again no big change in II.
From Barron?s 1/28/02

Investors Intelligence Bulls 52.6% Bears 23.7% Correction 23.7%
52.6/ )52.6+23.7) = 68.94 %
Four Week Average =68.46%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 47.4%
Four Week Average = 47.65%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 34.7%Bears 30.6% Neutral 34.7%
34.7/(34.7+30.6) = 53.14%
Four Week Average = 61.52%

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 65.3%
Four Week Average = 57.45%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT