Market Indicators - Investor Sentiment

Top 441. Nov 11, 2001 7:07 AM

» SteveT - 11-12-01 Sentiment

No big changes this week on the Investors Intelligence poll. The American Association of Individual Investors made a noticeable change, Bulls changed little while Neutrals dropped with almost all of them becoming Bears.
From Barron?s 11/12/01

Investors Intelligence Bulls 41.7% Bears 33.3% Correction 25%
41.7/(41.7+33.3) = 55.6%
Four Week Average =55.82%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%
Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 58.3%
Four Week Average = 57.9%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 34.6%Bears 42.3% Neutral 23.1%
34.6/(34.6+42.3) = 44.99%
Four Week Average = 61.93%

Historic dates for comparison and S&P 500 Close.
7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39
4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25
9-10-01 47.34% S&P 500 Close 1085.78
9-17-01 42.11% S&P 500 Close 1038.77
9-21-01 41.08% S&P 500 Close 965.80
Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 65.4%
Four Week Average = 53.5%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

Top 442. Nov 18, 2001 2:40 PM

» SteveT - 11-19-01 Sentiment

A few more Bulls on both surveys this week, with a larger increase in the AAII poll.
From Barron?s 11/19/01

Investors Intelligence Bulls 44.4% Bears 30.3% Correction 25.3%
44.4/(44.4+30.3)=59.44%
Four Week Average =57.17%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%
Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 55.6%
Four Week Average = 56.85%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 45.5%Bears 33.3% Neutral 21.2%
45.5/(45.5+33.3)=57.74%
Four Week Average = 57.48%

Historic dates for comparison and S&P 500 Close.
7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39
4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25
9-10-01 47.34% S&P 500 Close 1085.78
9-17-01 42.11% S&P 500 Close 1038.77
9-21-01 41.08% S&P 500 Close 965.80
Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 54.5%
Four Week Average = 57.25%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

Top 443. Nov 19, 2001 12:51 PM

» ACousins - Meisler on TSC

Market Vane?

This is a chart of the Market Vane bullish consensus, essentially a survey of professional traders. The current reading is 52%. A reading above 50% shows too much bullishness and is therefore not good for the market. (For those who want to know the parameters for bullishness, a reading near or below 20% is bullish on this indicator.)

Looks like it was around 17-18 in late March and troughed at 20 in September. It was under 40 a couple of weeks back so it's up a lot since. FWIW

-- posted by ACousins

Top 444. Nov 24, 2001 4:50 PM

» SteveT - 11/26/01 Sentiment

Once again the II survey varies little but he AAII poll shows a large spike in Bulls from last week. Is it holiday cheer or courage from the Amateur investors? It will be interesting to see if the Amateurs continue their Bullishness in the weeks ahead. A noticeable difference between their current ratio to the four week average.
From Barron?s 11/26/01

Investors Intelligence Bulls 46.9% Bears 28.6% Correction 24.5%
46.9/(46.9+28.6) = 62.12%
Four Week Average =58.33%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%
Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 53.1%
Four Week Average = 55.95%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 58.3%Bears 25% Neutral 16.7%
58.3/(58.3+25) = 69.99%
Four Week Average = 56.43%

Historic dates for comparison and S&P 500 Close.
7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39
4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25
9-10-01 47.34% S&P 500 Close 1085.78
9-17-01 42.11% S&P 500 Close 1038.77
9-21-01 41.08% S&P 500 Close 965.80
Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 41.7%
Four Week Average = 56.65%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

Top 445. Nov 24, 2001 10:54 PM

» JenL_2 - RE: Sentiment

Copied from the "TI" thread:

Author: Tech2
Date: November 24, 2001 8:42 PM
Subject: RE: Sentiment

.........

On another subject, I have been plotting an average of the four Investor Sentiment Readings which Barron's has been publishing for a few years. The average this week is 53.5%. IF this is a bear market, this is a rally killing high value. Anybody seen a sentiment indicator that's bullish to counter this?

-- posted by JenL_2

http://208.245.238.192/site/mb/show_topi...

Top 446. Nov 26, 2001 3:47 AM

» skp - Results of the Fearless Forecaster Sentiment Poll taken after th

Results of the Fearless Forecaster Sentiment Poll taken after the close on 11/23

Response was to this question: At the end of next week will the S & P 500 close up (bull), down (bear), or unchanged/no opinion (neutral)?

IT BULLS: 14%
IT BEARS: 71%

-- posted by skp

Top 447. Dec 3, 2001 4:35 PM

» SteveT - 12-3-01 Sentiment

The II poll is trudging along staying fairly flat. The AAII poll has become increasingly Bullish each of the past four weeks, reaching a YTD high in Bulls at 69.3%! (* The AAII poll figures add up to 100.2%, obviously a miss print. I'll note the correct information when I get it)
From Barron's 12/3//01

Investors Intelligence Bulls 46% Bears 27% Correction 27%
46/(46+27) = 63.01%
Four Week Average =60.03%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%
Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 54%
Four Week Average = 55.25%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 69.3%Bears 20.2% Neutral 10.7%
69.3/(69.3+20.2) = 77.43%
Four Week Average = 63.23%

Historic dates for comparison and S&P 500 Close.
7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39
4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25
9-10-01 47.34% S&P 500 Close 1085.78
9-17-01 42.11% S&P 500 Close 1038.77
9-21-01 41.08% S&P 500 Close 965.80
Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 30.9%
Four Week Average = 48.13%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

Top 448. Dec 9, 2001 5:08 AM

» SteveT - 12-10-01 Sentiment

First things first, last weeks the AAII numbers need to be corrected. The Bearish figure was 20% not the 20.2 listed. No big changes in II again, the Bulls have backed off some in the AAII poll.

From Barron's 12/10//01

Investors Intelligence Bulls 45.4% Bears 30.9% Correction 23.7%
45.4/(45.4+30.9)= 59.5%
Four Week Average =61.0%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 54.6%
Four Week Average = 54.33%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 59.2%Bears 24.5% Neutral 16.3%
59.2/)59.2+24.5 = 70.73%
Four Week Average = 69.32%

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 40.8%
Four Week Average = 41.93%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

Top 449. Dec 15, 2001 1:05 PM

» SteveT - 12-17-01 Sentiment

No big changes in Bulls in either poll BUT a noticeable drop in Bears in the AAII and it looks like they almost all became neutral. This had a dramatic effect on the ratio in the amateur poll to a yearly record of 81.43%! Very little sideline money on the AAII survey. Does all this mean a correction is at hand? Will we see new lows yet this year? Who knows, stay tuned.
From Barron's 12/17//01

Investors Intelligence Bulls 43.4% Bears 28.3% Correction 28.3%
43.4/(43.4+28.3)= 60.5%
Four Week Average =61.28%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 56.6%
Four Week Average = 54.58%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 61.4%Bears 14% Neutral 24.6%
61.4/(61.4+14) = 81.43%
Four Week Average = 74.83%

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 38.6%
Four Week Average = 37.95%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT