Market Indicators - Investor Sentiment

Top 431. Sep 23, 2001 9:22 PM

» BANANAS_ - Option market sentiment a/o 9/21

Deleted by author

-- posted by BANANAS_

Top 432. Sep 23, 2001 9:42 PM

» BANANAS_ - Re: Option market sentiment a/o 9/21

In response to message posted by BANANAS_:

Equity Put-Call Ratio

Friday
Close: 1.14
21-day: .76
10-day: .91
4-day: 1.02

Five trading days ago
Close: .88
21-day: .69
10-day: .73
4-day: .81

Ten trading days ago
Close: .60
21-day: .66
10-day: .60
4-day: .70

VIX

Friday
Close: 48.27
21-day: 31.64
10-day: 38.63
4-day: 45.76

Five trading days ago
Close: 33.87
21-day: 26.34
10-day: 28.64
4-day: 32.41

Ten trading days ago
Close: 27.85
21-day: 24.36
10-day: 25.15
4-day: 26.42

Source: CBOE

-- posted by BANANAS_

Top 433. Sep 30, 2001 3:22 PM

» SteveT - 10-1-01 Sentiment

10/1/01 some big changes in the data this week. The pros are finding fewer Bulls while the amateurs Bulls are increasing dramatically. From Barron's 10/1/01.

Investors Intelligence Bulls 33.7% Bears 42.1% Correction 24.2%
33.7/(33.7+42.1) = 44.46
Four Week Average =51.03%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-2101 48.7%
Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 66.3%
Four Week Average = 61.28%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 51.1%Bears 22.2% Neutral 26.7%
51.1/(51.1+22.2) = 69.71%
Four Week Average = 50.36%

For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

Top 434. Sep 30, 2001 6:22 PM

» stocksystm - Not Comforting

I'm certainly not comforted by the bullish consensus of the amateurs. We may have further down to go.

-- posted by stocksystm

Top 435. Oct 7, 2001 5:59 AM

» SteveT - 10-8-01 Sentiment

This week the Pros had very little change. The amateurs saw fewer neutrals and more bears with a .1% increase in Bulls. From Barron's 10/8/01.

Investors Intelligence Bulls 34.4% Bears 42.7% Correction 22.9%
34.4?(34.4+42.7)= 44.62%
Four Week Average =47.44%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%
Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 65.6%
Four Week Average = 64.15%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 51.2%Bears 29.3% Neutral 19.5%
51.2/(51.2+29.3)= 63.6%
Four Week Average = 54.66%

-- posted by SteveT

Top 436. Oct 7, 2001 3:24 PM

» SteveT - Re: Re: 10-8-01 Sentiment

In response to message posted by Kirk:

It sure seems in the recent past it has been a trailing indicator. But then maybe we have yet to reach that final bottom? Who knows but it is fascinating to watch this stuff. Now that the bombs have dropped I wonder what the next survey will show? Seems most were expecting a rally when we have to restock our supply of bombs and missiles.

-- posted by SteveT

Top 437. Oct 13, 2001 2:22 PM

» SteveT - 10-15-01 Sentiment

A rather noticeable jump in Bulls from the II poll while the number of Bears plunge. The AAII poll indicates fewer Bulls and more Neutrals. Of course these two polls do not move in lock step, nothing new here.
From Barron's 10/15/01.

Investors Intelligence Bulls 39.2% Bears 34% Correction 26.8%
39.2/(39.2+34) = 53.55%
Four Week Average =47.76%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%
Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 60.8%
Four Week Average = 64.25%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 47.4%Bears 28% Neutral 24.6%
47.4/(47.4+28) = 62.86
Four Week Average = 59.3%

-- posted by SteveT

Top 438. Oct 21, 2001 5:46 AM

» SteveT - 10/22/01 Sentiment

Not much change in the II poll again but a rather noticeable jump in Bulls in the AAII poll. The AAII poll Bulls increased from 47.4% to 60.6%. You would have to back to the end of May to find more Bulls on the AAII poll. From Barron's 10/22/01

Investors Intelligence Bulls 40.2% Bears 34.3% Correction 25.5%
40.2/(40.2+34.3) = 53.96%
Four Week Average =49.06%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%
Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 59.8%
Four Week Average = 63.13%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 60.6%Bears 21.1% Neutral 18.3%
60.6/(60.6+21.1) = 74.17%
Four Week Average = 67.64%

-- posted by SteveT

Top 439. Oct 28, 2001 6:48 AM

» SteveT - 10-29-01 Sentiment

This week more Bulls from the pros and fewer from us amateurs, but the ratio on the amateur poll went up a couple percent. I am starting to wonder if the Pros are long investors climbing the wall of worry. While the amateurs are short-term traders.
From Barron?s 10/29/01

Investors Intelligence Bulls 43.3% Bears 32% Correction 24.7%
43.3/(43.3+32) = 57.5%
Four Week Average =52.35%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%
9-10-01 58.91
9-17-01 52%
9-21-01 48.7%
Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 56.7%
Four Week Average = 60.73%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 55.9%Bears 17.6% Neutral 26.5%
55.9/(55.9+17.6) = 76.05%
Four Week Average = 69.14%

Historic dates for comparison and S&P 500 Close.
7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39
4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25
9-10-01 47.34% S&P 500 Close 1085.78
9-17-01 42.11% S&P 500 Close 1038.77
9-21-01 41.08% S&P 500 Close 965.80
Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 44.1%
Four Week Average = 46.23%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT