Market Indicators - Investor Sentiment

» BANANAS_ - Re: Re: VIX, Equity P/C ratio, & Arms Update

In response to message posted by Kirk:

"Hmmm... I have Put/Call at 1.07"

You're probably looking at total option volume, which includes the index options. I was exclusively looking at equity options.

-- posted by BANANAS_

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» SteveT - 8-20-01 Sentiment

8-20-01
Investors Intelligence is under 50% Bulls for the third week in a row. The American Association of Individual Investors switched some bears for some neutrals last week, it looks like they switched back again this week. From Barron's August 20, 2001.

Investors Intelligence Bulls 49% Bears 29.1% Correction 21.9%
49/(49+29.1) = 62.74
Four Week Average =64.32%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 51%
Four Week Average =51.5%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 35.4 Bears 37.5% Neutral 27.1%
35.4/(35.4+37.5) = 48.56%
Four Week Average = 49.38%

historic dates for comparison and S&P 500 Close.
7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39
4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 64.6%
Four Week Average = 65.95%

For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

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» BANANAS_ - VIX, Equity P/C ratio, & Arms Update

VIX

Tuesday
Close: 25.99
21-day: 24.10
10-day: 24.24

Last Tuesday
Close: 23.01
21-day: 24.40
10-day: 23.23

Previous Tuesday
Close: 22.65
21-day: 24.93
10-day: 23.95

Equity P/C ratio

Tuesday
Close: .58
21-day: .62
10-day: .69

Last Tuesday
Close: .65
21-day: .60
10-day: .62

Previous Tuesday
Close: .73
21-day: .61
10-day: .55

Arms

Tuesday
Close: 1.41
21-day: 1.39
10-day: 1.55

Last Tuesday
Close: 1.46
21-day: 1.30
10-day: 1.51

Previous Tuesday
Close: 1.05
21-day: 1.17
10-day: 1.11

-- posted by BANANAS_

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» BANANAS_ - VIX, Equity P/C ratio, Arms Update

VIX

Thursday
Close: 24.92
21-day: 24.01
10-day: 24.63

Last Thursday
Close: 23.83
21-day: 24.14
10-day: 23.45

Previous Thursday
Close: 23.64
21-day: 24.67
10-day: 23.56

Equity P/C ratio

Thursday
Close: .54
21-day: .61
10-day: .67

Last Thursday
Close: .85
21-day: .62
10-day: .69

Previous Thursday
Close: .69
21-day: .59
10-day: .57

Arms

Thursday
Close: 1.26
21-day: 1.34
10-day: 1.34

Last Thursday
Close: 1.12
21-day: 1.34
10-day: 1.53

Previous Thursday
Close: 1.66
21-day: 1.26
10-day: 1.41

Sources: Yahoo! Finance. CBOE.

-- posted by BANANAS_

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» BANANAS_ - VIX, Equity P/C ratio, Arms Update

VIX

Friday
Close: 22.29
21-day: 23.88
10-day: 24.53

Last Friday
Close: 26.74
21-day: 24.23
10-day: 23.78

Previous Friday
Close: 22.81
21-day: 24.58
10-day: 23.37

Equity P/C ratio

Friday
Close: .48
21-day: .61
10-day: .66

Last Friday
Close: .96
21-day: .63
10-day: .72

Previous Friday
Close: .66
21-day: .60
10-day: .59

Arms

Friday
Close: .66
21-day: 1.34
10-day: 1.29

Last Friday
Close: 2.53
21-day: 1.42
10-day: 1.67

Previous Friday
Close: 1.07
21-day: 1.28
10-day: 1.44

Source: Yahoo! Finance; CBOE.

-- posted by BANANAS_

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» SteveT - 8/27/01 Sentiment

Investors Intelligence is under 50% Bulls for the fourth week in a row. The American Association of Individual Investors switched some bears for some neutrals two weeks ago, they switched back again last week. Now they seemed to have switched again to a lesser amount. From Barron's August 27, 2001.

Investors Intelligence Bulls 46.9% Bears 30.2% Correction 22.9%
46.9/(46.9+30.2) = 60.83
Four Week Average =62.27%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 53.1%
Four Week Average =52.93%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 34.5 Bears 31% Neutral 34.5%
34.5/(34.5+31) = 52.67
Four Week Average = 51.59%

historic dates for comparison and S&P 500 Close.
7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39
4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 65.5%
Four Week Average = 64.7%

For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

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» stocksystm - Thanks to SteveT and Bananas

I'd like to thank SteveT and Bananas for posting this very useful information here. I found it by searching Google for 'investor sentiment.' By the way, everyone interested in investing should get a hold of the 8/6/01 issue of Barron's and turn to the Jeremy Grantham interview. Very enlightening!

-- posted by stocksystm

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» JenL_2 - Re: Thanks to SteveT and Bananas

In response to message posted by stocksystm:

Welcome stocksystm - The Jeremy Grantham interview from 8/6 Barron's is already posted to the "US Stock Market" thread...

http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

I liked his comments that even though things look bleak for Tech and Growth in general, he did find some safehavens in this bear market like international small cap value, emerging market, fixed income, inflation-protected bonds, regular bonds, REITs & the Lumber sector......Jen

-- posted by JenL_2

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» BANANAS_ - VIX, Equity Put-Call Ratio, Arms Update for Tuesday

VIX

Tuesday
Close: 24.02
21-day: 23.81
10-day: 24.49

Last Tuesday
Close: 25.99
21-day: 24.10
10-day: 24.24

Previous Tuesday
Close: 23.01
21-day: 24.40
10-day: 23.23

Equity Put-Call Ratio

Tuesday
Close: .79
21-day: .64
10-day: .66

Last Tuesday
Close: .58
21-day: .62
10-day: .69

Previous Tuesday
Close: .65
21-day: .60
10-day: .62

Arms Index

Tuesday
Close: 1.70
21-day: 1.39
10-day: 1.30

Last Tuesday
Close: 1.41
21-day: 1.39
10-day: 1.55

Previous Tuesday
Close: 1.46
21-day: 1.30
10-day: 1.51

Sources: Yahoo! Finance; CBOE.

-- posted by BANANAS_

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» BANANAS_ - VIX, Equity Put-Call Ratio, Arms Update for Thursday...Uuughhh!

VIX

Thursday
Close: 28.08
21-day: 24.19
10-day: 24.85

Last Thursday
Close: 24.92
21-day: 24.01
10-day: 24.63

Previous Thursday
Close: 23.83
21-day: 24.14
10-day: 23.45

Equity Put-Call Ratio

Thursday
Close: .73
21-day: .66
10-day: .64

Last Thursday
Close: .54
21-day: .61
10-day: .67

Previous Thursday
Close: .85
21-day: .62
10-day: .69

Arms Index

Thursday
Close: 2.27
21-day: 1.47
10-day: 1.47

Last Thursday
Close: 1.26
21-day: 1.34
10-day: 1.34

Previous Thursday
Close: 1.12
21-day: 1.34
10-day: 1.53

Note: The readings on the 21-day Equity P-C ratio and the 21-day Arms are the highest since I started tracking them in mid-June of this year. The reading on the 21-day Arms Index of 1.47 is absolutely alarming! Wow!

Sources: Yahoo! Finance; CBOE.

-- posted by BANANAS_

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