Market Indicators - Investor Sentiment

Top 401. Jul 22, 2001 7:03 PM

» rasputin - Re: 7-23-01 Sentiment

In response to message posted by SteveT:
OK, Steve...what do you figure the numbers mean?

-- posted by rasputin

Top 402. Jul 28, 2001 1:58 PM

» SteveT - Re: Re: 7-23-01 Sentiment

In response to message posted by rasputin:

ras, sorry to take so long to get back to you. I am not sure. If history repeats it self, in order for a major leg up and a new bull market it would seem we need many more bears on the II survey. Until that happens I think we continue to go in a range. Don't ask me what the range is smile

Good time to Dollar cost average new money and keep your allocation in line imo.

-- posted by SteveT

Top 403. Jul 28, 2001 3:43 PM

» SteveT - 7-31-01 Sentiment

For the third week in a row we see stable readings from II while AAII is once again acting like a Yo-Yo. AAII is not that different from two weeks ago. From Barron's July 31, 2001.

Investors Intelligence bulls 52.6% Bears 23.7% Correction 23.7%
52.6/(52.6+23.7) = 68.94%
Four Week Average =67.91%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 47.4%
Four Week Average =48.48%

American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 29.5% Bears 38.1% Neutral 32.4%
29.5/(29.5+38.1) = 43.64%
Four Week Average = 57.37%

historic dates for comparison and S&P 500 Close.
7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39
4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 70.5%
Four Week Average = 63.6%

For more info on AAII check out their web site.
http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

Top 404. Jul 28, 2001 5:02 PM

» rasputin - Re: Re: Re: 7-23-01 Sentiment

In response to message posted by SteveT:
thanks for your reply and thanks for your diligent effort.

-- posted by rasputin

Top 405. Jul 29, 2001 5:57 AM

» way2go - bond traders thoughts

Some comments from the Bond Traders, lining up with your thoughts too:
2:39 PM
FED TALK: Money supply growth accelerated last week, as most forecasters had anticipated, with M3 expanding $26.4 billion. Money supply data continues to suggest that liquidity is plentiful. M3, for example, the Fed's broad measure of money supply growth, has gained at an annualized rate of 12.7% so far this year. This rate is extraordinary as is the year-over-year gain of 11.3%, a nearly 20-year high. While there's no doubt that the surge in money growth can be partly attributable to a shift in assets from equities to zero maturity assets such as money market funds, the increase is also the result of credit expansion, as evidenced by the robust level of corporate bond issuance so far this year; bond issuance is running close to double last year's record pace. While the data also hints at conservative attitudes that might not easily be changed, the flipside is that investors have ample cash to plough into the equity market if they become so emboldened. Investors might be encouraged to shift this liquidity back to stocks if the economy shows true signs of stabilizing. The shift to money market funds could be last longer than usual, given the severe and painful drubbing that investors took in 2000. Investors are clearly now more interested in the return of capital instead of the return on capital now that the financial bubble has burst. This has been the case in the Japan for 10 years and is a reminder of just how long lasting painful memories of stock losses can be. If investors do indeed stay away from stocks and therefore invest less in the economy, economic weakness will surely be the result. In turn, the Fed will have to cut rates still-more aggressively in order to battle the classic elements of a liquidity trap--the so-called pushing-on-a-string dilemma that occurs when cutting interest rates produces no response in the economy. But the gains in the money supply also suggest sufficient liquidity exists for a recovery in the economy.

I also found this one interesting too:

3:10 PM
It's been a consolidative week for the bond futures contract, even with major quarterly economic releases and an appearance by Alan Greenspan. On the one hand

-- posted by way2go

Top 406. Aug 4, 2001 5:31 PM

» SteveT - 8-6-01 Sentiment

Investors Intelligence is under 50% Bulls for the first time since April. The American Association of Individual Investors is showing signs of flattening slightly. From Barron's August 6, 2001.

Investors Intelligence bulls 46.4% Bears 27.8% Correction 25.8%
46.4/(46.4+27.8) = 62.53
Four Week Average =67.01%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 53.6%
Four Week Average =49.38%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 36.4 % Bears 36.3% Neutral 27.3%
36.4/(36.4+36.3) = 50.7
Four Week Average = 52.81%

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 63.6%
Four Week Average = 64.7%

For more info on AAII check out their web site.
http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

Venture Capital Survey - 4Q 2000

Top 407. Aug 6, 2001 9:48 PM

» JenL_2 - Re: Venture Capital Dollars

In response to message posted by Kirk:

Kirk - don't know about going back 20 years, but this article in mercurycenter.com has lots of resource links and a venture capital search engine at the bottom:

......Jen

-- posted by JenL_2

Top 408. Aug 11, 2001 2:01 PM

» SteveT - 8-13-01 Sentiment

Investors Intelligence is still under 50% Bulls. No dramatic changes from last week. The American Association of Individual Investors apparently switched some bears for some neutrals. From Barron's August 13, 2001.

Investors Intelligence bulls 46% Bears 27% Correction 27%
46/(46+27) = 63.01%
Four Week Average =66.01%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 54%
Four Week Average =50.63%

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 34.9 Bears 27.7% Neutral 37.4%
34.9/(34.9+27.7) = 55.75
Four Week Average = 56.25%

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 65.1%
Four Week Average = 62.3%

For more info on AAII check out their web site.
http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT