Market Indicators - Investor Sentiment

Top 391. Jun 9, 2001 1:05 PM

» SteveT - 6-11-01 Sentiment

Still seems the pro survey does not fluctuate as much as the amateur poll. Pro bulls come in just under 50% while those of us that do this for fun smile

show a drop from the late May levels of over 60% to the low 40’s. Anyway here is the results of the latest poll as published in Baron’s June 11, 2001.

Investors Intelligence; Bulls 48.5% Bears 30.5% Correction 21%
48.5/(48.5+30.5) = 61.39%
Four Week Average = 58.89%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 51.5%
Four Week Average = 51.55

American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 42.6% Bears 25.5% neutral 31.9%
42.6/(42.6+25.5) = 62.56%
Four Week Average = 71.22

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 57.4%
Four Week Average = 48.6%

For more info on AAII check out their web site.
http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

Top 392. Jun 26, 2001 4:45 PM

» SteveT - 6-18 Sentiment

After being gone last week I am including this for the record.

As reported in the June 25, 2001 Barron’s
Investor’s Intelligence Bulls 49% Bears 29.6 Correction 21.4%
49/(49+29.6)= 62.34%
Four Week Average=59.82%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 51%
Four Week Average = 51.8%

American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 30.5% Bears 22% Neutral 47.5%
30.5/(30.5+22) = 58.1%
Four Week Average = 68.11%

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 69.5%
Four Week Average = 53.93%

For more info on AAII check out their web site.
http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

Top 393. Jun 26, 2001 5:01 PM

» SteveT - 6-25-01 Sentiment

The ratio of Bulls/(Bulls + Bears) is above 60% for the third week in a row. Does this mean anything? What will the FOMC do tomorrow? Who can predict the future? Still a good deal of money on the sidelines. When this comes back into the market it could help prolong any rally we do get. Ralph Russell this week stated (he did not give a source) over 40% of equity mutual funds money is in money market accounts. This much we do know. As reported in the June 25, 2001 Barron’s.

Investor’s Intelligence Bulls 51% Bears 30.6% Correction 18.4%
51/(51+30.6) = 62.5%
Four Week Average =61.1%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 49%
Four Week Average = 51.03%

American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 33.3% Bears 23.3% Neutral 47.5%
33.3/(33.3+23.3) = 58.83%
Four Week Average = 62.63%

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 66.6%
Four Week Average = 61.05 %

For more info on AAII check out their web site.
http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

Top 394. Jul 2, 2001 2:26 PM

» SteveT - 7-02-01 Sentiment

This week the "pro" Bulls slipped a little switching to Correction. Us amateurs are noticeably more Bearish. I wonder if the votes were cast before the FOMC released it’s decision? From Barron’s July 2, 2001.

Investors Intelligence Bulls 48% Bears 30% Correction 22%
48/(48+30) = 61.54%
Four Week Average = 61.95%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 52%
Four Week Average = 50.88%

American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 30.4% Bears 32.9% Neutral 36.7%
30.4/(30.4 + 32.9) = 48.03%
Four Week Average = 56.88%

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 69.6%
Four Week Average = 65.78%

I have been able to find some historic data for AAII. I will include the dates as near as possible to the II historic dates for comparison and S&P 500 Close.

7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39
4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25

For more info on AAII check out their web site.
http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

Top 395. Jul 3, 2001 7:08 PM

» stocksystm - Thanks for the Info

I appreciate Steve Thompson putting this info on the web. It's very convenient to find it here and look at it weekly!

-- posted by stocksystm

Top 396. Jul 5, 2001 8:24 PM

» 2win - Summer Rally?

If bullish sentiment is a reliable sign of an impending down trend, it seems we have exactly that in the many articles treating the fabled Summer Rally as an inalienable right, a sure thing no sane investor would deign to question. In their minds, we'll get a rally simply because it's summertime. Looks like a good contrary indicator to me.

Dave J.

-- posted by 2win

Top 397. Jul 8, 2001 7:58 AM

» SteveT - July 9, 2001 Sentiment

Again these Indicators are showing some movement. A noticeable increase in Bulls particularly in the AAII poll. It will be interesting to see what shakes out next week after the ugly week we just finished. From Barron’s July 9, 2001.

Investors Intelligence bulls 50% Bears 25.5% Correction 24.5%
50/(50+25.5) = 66.23%
Four Week Average = 63.24%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 50%
Four Week Average =50.35%

American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 40.7% Bears 18.5% Neutral 40.7%
40.7/(40.7+18.5) = 68.75%
Four Week Average = 58.25%

historic dates for comparison and S&P 500 Close.
7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39
4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 59.2%
Four Week Average = 66.23

For more info on AAII check out their web site.
http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

Top 398. Jul 9, 2001 11:50 PM

» JenL_2 - Re: July 9, 2001 Sentiment

In response to message posted by SteveT:

This post copied from the "TA" thread:

Author: nomar
Date: July 9, 2001 8:24 AM
Subject: Meisler No Caput Yet

Looking for Some Form of Capitulation
By Helene Meisler
Special to TheStreet.com
7/9/01 9:20 AM ET

When I saw the Investor's Intelligence numbers and realized that 24.5% are looking for a correction, I thought, "The market won't be that generous and give so many what they're looking for." But I didn't make a big deal over it because it's just one indicator giving us that view.

But then I saw that the American Association of Individual Investors is reporting that a whopping 40.7% are "neutral" on the market. Now I've got two sentiment indicators getting to extremes. Of course, the Volatility Index also was showing a sense of complacency in the market.

Last week's Investor's Intelligence report showed too few bears. In fact, it was the lowest bearish percentage reading we've seen in two years.

All of this led me to wonder why no one talks about capitulation anymore. Remember a few months ago, when everyone was looking for that big capitulation move down? Remember that when we got it, so few believed it? That was in late March to early April. With so many sentiment indicators having shifted in the past week or so to this "neutral," or less bearish, camp, we're now in need of some form of capitulation. At the very least, we need a major shift in sentiment again. We need to get that percentage of bears back up.

Sure, the number of stocks making new lows did not exceed the previous readings Friday on both the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq. The advance/decline line also held up reasonably well, but this market only just reached an overbought reading late last week. It isn't even close to being oversold. Sentiment is simply in the wrong place right now for us to see a decent low.

-- posted by JenL_2

Top 399. Jul 16, 2001 4:35 PM

» SteveT - 7-16-01 Sentiment

WOW!! What a difference a week makes, at least in the AAII poll. Those people are all over the map. A few more neutrals, a great deal more bears and almost no bulls! The II poll has been much more shall we say "stable." From Barron’s July 16, 2001.

Investors Intelligence bulls 51% Bears 25% Correction 24% 51/(51+25) = 67.11% Four Week Average =64.41%

A few historic dates 7-20-98 68.42% 10-12-98 47.41% 4-3-00 67.79% 1-1-01 64.10% 4-4-01 56.27%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 49% Four Week Average =49.85%

American Association of Individual Investors Bulls 25.3% Bears 36.3% Neutral 38.4% 25.3/(25.3+36.3) = 41.07 Four Week Average = 53.88%

historic dates for comparison and S&P 500 Close. 7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75 10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39 4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97 1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28 4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 74.7% Four Week Average = 67.53

For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT