Market Indicators - Investor Sentiment

Top 381. Apr 14, 2001 2:13 PM

» SteveT - 4-16 Sentiment

Could we near a bottom? That is what all long investors are hoping for, but hoping don’t make it so. We are seeing bearish movement in sentiment often a sign of a bottom but not assured. Again a difference between the pros and us amateurs. The data shows the differences are widening. From Barron’s April 16, 2001 edition.

Investors Intelligence
Bulls 44.5% Bears 37% Correction 18.5%
44.5/(44.5+37) = 54.6%

Four week average 57.35%

A few historic dates

7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction
37+ 18.5 =55.5%
Four Week Average 51.53%

The American Association of Individual Investors tracks sentiment also. Here is the latest from the same edition of Barron’s.

Bulls 30.3 Bears 40.9 Neutral 28.8
30.3/(30.3 + 28.8) = 42.56 %

Four Week Average = 47.89%

Sideline Money = Bears +Neutral
40.9 + 28.8 = 69.7%

Four Week Average 67.45%

Check this thread often. We are working on a surprise new twist

-- posted by SteveT

Top 382. Apr 21, 2001 12:27 PM

» SteveT - 4-23-01 Sentiment

A fairly significant move this week in the number of Bears on the Investors Intelligence survey, most of them apparently coming from the correction camp. The amateur poll shows something a little different. A few less Neutrals and many fewer Bears, and many more Bulls. Is the performance over the past two and a half weeks a suckers rally or was April 4th the bottom? We should know later this year. Maybe it is just we all feel a little better now that Spring is here. The latest from Barron’s April 23rd edition.

Investors Intelligence; Bulls 44.7% Bears 42.5% Correction 12.8%
44.7/(44.7+42.5) = 51.26%
Four week Average = 54.55%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%

Sideline Money: Bears + Correction
55.3%
Four Week Average
53.25%

American Association of Individual Investors; Bulls 43.7% Bears 31.2% Neutral 25%
43.7/(43.7 + 31.2) = 58.34%
Four Week Average = 53.8%

Sideline Money = Bears +Neutral
31.2 + 25 = 56.2%
Four Week Average 63.38%

-- posted by SteveT

Top 383. Apr 28, 2001 2:09 PM

» SteveT - 4-30-01 Sentiment

Nervous Investors seem to be slightly unsure of which way the stock market is headed. No big changes this week from last. One thing that seems to be happening the Investors Intelligence survey seems to have a narrower range of the correction crowd, while the AAII poll has a much wider range of neutrals since the beginning of this year. Sure would be easier if they both referred to that category with the same term. May I suggest, Steers? Anyway here is the latest from Barron’s April 30, 2001.

Investors Intelligence; Bulls 43.9% Bears 41.8% Correction 14.3%
43.9/(43.9 + 41.8) = 51.2%
Four week Average = 53.28%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%

Sideline Money: Bears + Correction = 56.1%
Four week average = 54.5%

American Association of Individual Investors; Bulls 46.6% Bears 31% Neutral 22.4%
46.6/(46.6 + 31) = 60.05
Four Week Average = 54.65%

Sideline Money = Bears +Neutral 31% + 22.4% = 53.4%
Four week Average = 61.03%

-- posted by SteveT

Top 384. May 8, 2001 12:54 PM

» SteveT - 5/7/01 Sentiment

What a difference a week makes, at least on the American Association of Individual Investors poll. The dramatic increase of Bulls from the AAII poll is unprecedented in my memory. Here is the data from Barron’s May 7, 2001.

Investors Intelligence; Bulls 45.7 Bears 40.2 Neutral 14.1
45.7/(45.7+40.2) = 53.2%
Four Week Average = 52.54%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%

Sideline Money; Bears + Correction = 54.3%
Four Week Average = 55.3%

American Association of Individual Investors; Bulls 63.5 Bears 21.6 Neutral 14.9
63.5/(63.5 +21.6) = 74.62
Four week Average = 59.62

Sideline Money = Bears +Neutral 21.6 +14.9 = 36.5%
Four Week Average = 53.95

The percentage of Bulls is at a year high but the ratio of bulls/Bulls +bears is not. It was higher on Feb. 12th but with many fewer bears, so we shall see. for more information about The American Association of Individual Investors check out their web site.

http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

Top 386. May 12, 2001 1:45 PM

» SteveT - 5-14-01 Sentiment

We are seeing fewer bears compared to last week and an increase in bullish sentiment from II to 56.3%.

In the AAII poll we find a ten percentage drop in bulls and 3.8% drop in bears. Along with a dear double in Neutrals the ratio is almost unchanged. Here are the numbers from Barron’s May 14, 2001.

Investors Intelligence Bulls 47.9% Bears 37.2% Correction 14.9%
47.9/(47.9+7.2) = 56.29%
Four Week Average = 52.98%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 52.1%
Four Week Average =54.45%

American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 53.3% Bears 17.8% Neutral 28.9%
53.3/(53.3+17.8) = 74.96%,
Four Week Average = 67.09%

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 46.7%
Four Week Average = 48.2%

For more info on AAII check out their web site.
http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

Top 387. May 19, 2001 7:36 PM

» JenL_2 - Investor Sentiment from 5/21 Barron's

Investors Intelligence Bulls 50.0% Bears 35.4% Correction 14.6%
50.0/(50.0+35.) = 58.55%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 50.0%

American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 51.8% Bears 18.8% Neutral 29.4%
51.8/(51.8+18.8) = 73.37%,

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 48.2%

For more info on AAII check out their web site.
http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by JenL_2

Top 388. May 27, 2001 8:56 AM

» SteveT - 5-18-01 Sentiment

Once again we have a noticeable difference between the pros and amateurs. If you saw W$W Friday night Lou had some selected numbers from the II poll going back to its origination in 1963. If you are interested stop and check out my summary of the show. http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

From Barron’s May 28, 2001
Investors Intelligence's Bulls 47.9% Bears 35.4% Correction 16.7%
47.9/(47.9+35.4) = 57.5%
Four Week Average = 56.37%

A few historic dates
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 56.27%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 52.1%
Four Week Average = 52.13%

American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 61.9% bears 16.7% Neutral 21.4%
61.9/(61.9+16.7) = 78.75%
Four Week Average = 75.47%

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 38.1%
Four Week Average = 42.38%

For more info on AAII check out their web site.
http://www.aaii.com/

-- posted by SteveT

Top 389. May 27, 2001 9:16 AM

» Rande - Re: 5-18-01 Sentiment

In response to message posted by SteveT:

There is no difference between the pros and the amateurs when it comes to predicting the future course of the market. The market is an equal opportunity devastator when it comes to anyone who thinks they have it all figured out.

-- posted by Rande